Well I was saying yesterday morning that the bears needed to reverse Wednesday’s break up quickly yesterday and so they did. It’s been a while since I saw a decent bull setup like that trashed as thoroughly and quickly as that was, and that is certainly food for thought.
After the break back under the daily middle band we returned to the original schedule that I outlined on Tuesday morning, which was that the move into Wednesday’s close was a rally, to be followed by a new wave down resulting in a lower low, and so here we are this morning. (more…)
Last Thursday morning SPX was looking like it might gap up over the very important support/resistance level at the 50 hour MA, and I was saying that a gap over that should be respected unless the opening gap was then filled. SPX then tested the 50 hour MA at the opening print and fell 30 points or so after the failure there.
We have a similar setup this morning, and as was the case then, a gap over the 50 hour MA should be respected as an unfilled gap over a resistance level is the strongest kind of resistance break in my view. As with the last time a strong reversal there this morning should be respected as well. (more…)
SPX has spent the last three days trading close to the weekly upper bollinger band, and closed yesterday a point above it. I gave the maximum closing range this week without a rare and bearish punch above the weekly upper band at 1880-5, and if anything that looks a little high. With ES at 1884 at the time of writing, further upside into the close today looks unlikely. SPX weekly chart:
I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)
I’ve mostly been looking at charts with double-tops forming this morning. First I’ll show the possible major double-top that may be forming on the SPX daily chart. That would trigger a target in the 1625 area on a sustained break below 1737, but in practical terms a break below strong rising support from the 1560 low, now in the 1750 area, would look extremely bearish. This is not my primary scenario here, but I’ll be considering it seriously if we should see SPX break under strong support in the 1800 area. Short term the best reversal signals on the SPX daily chart are from divergences on the RSI 5, and we have a bearish negative RSI 5 divergence forming there now. SPX daily chart: (more…)
ES closed green again yesterday, delivering a second run of ten consecutive green candle closes since 2000. Looking at the overnight action I doubt that we will see a third record-equalling eleventh green candle today. At the moment ES is trying to hold 1830 and we might still see a test of the 1851 SPX high if it can hold. If 1830 breaks then the double-top target is in the 1822.50 area. ES 60min chart: (more…)