Category Archives: Energy

Retracement Targets

By -

SPX traded sideways yesterday in what looked quite a lot like a bull flag, but has broken down overnight. It seems very likely that an overdue retracement has started, though we might still retest the current high to form a small double top. The main fib retracement targets are the 23.6% fib retrace at 1990, the 38.2% fib retrace at 1980, and the 50% retrace at 1973. The 50 hour MA is at 1992 and might hold for the 23.6% option. Rising wedge support has already broken, so that is no longer support. SPX 60min chart:

140828 SPX 60min Retracement Targets

(more…)

Bigger Picture Options

By -

SPX made the IHS target at 1987 and is now close to testing the current all time high at 1991.39. I’m expecting to see a new high made, very possibly today. So what then?

Assuming that we don’t see a strong rejection at the highs retest, the obvious next target just above is at the daily upper band, currently at 2000. I would very much like to see a decent retracement shortly, at the least to give me more to work with in terms of trendlines, and the obvious place to see that retracement start is now at a test of that daily upper band. On the bigger picture, if the rising wedge from the January low is still the main pattern here, then I would not expect this move to close a day back over rising wedge resistance, currently in the 2015 area. SPX daily chart:

140821 SPX Daily Trendlines BBS MAs

(more…)

Now We See

By -

This is going to be my top chart every day until the daily RSI 5 hits 60. Over the seventeen buy signals from this chart back to the start of 2007, fifteen made the signal target at the 70 level on the daily RSI 5 and the two failures both failed above the 60 level. As ever there’s no guarantee that this time won’t be different, but the short side is very low probability historically until the daily RSI 5 hits 60, at which point shorts will be upgraded to just low probability until it hits 70. The RSI 5 high so far on this move is just over 50. SPX daily vs NYMO and RSI 5:

140813 SPX Daily vs RSI 5 and NYMO

(more…)

Inflection Point Tests

By -

Yesterday was cautiously promising for a reversal at the inflection point here. The two lows this week are at 1913 and 1911, both in the 1911-14 strong support target area that I was looking at on Friday morning. We have a possible double bottom in place if the decline patterns can be broken. If the decline patterns can’t be broken then yesterday was day five of the daily lower band ride and it could run down longer and further. SPX daily chart:

(more…)

Double Top Target Hit

By -

I identified the rally pattern from Friday as a 70% bearish rising megaphone after the AM low yesterday and posted that on twitter. Hopefully everyone caught that. After the megaphone broke down in the afternoon there was a swift move to make the full SPX double top target at 1914, and to test the weekly middle band, also at 1914, and the 100 DMA at 1912. That is a strong support area and it held yesterday in trading hours, though given the weak overnight action it could break at the open today. SPX weekly chart: (more…)

Other Markets Update

By -

This is my vacation post for other (non-equities) markets. For equities check my last post from earlier today. Normal service resumes next Monday 4th August.

Last time I was looking at EURUSD I said that I was expecting a test of rising wedge support in the 1.35 area. EURUSD made that and then slightly lower to test the 200 DMA, so the rising wedge is now broken. Unless we see a fairly fast recovery to new highs I’m now looking at targets for EURUSD in the mid-120s. I’ve been watching this setup for months in the expectation that there should be a strong USD rally at the end of QE3 so I’m expecting this to resolve down. EURUSD weekly chart:

140728 EURUSD Weekly Rising Wedge and Triangle

(more…)