Back on November 10th, I did my Shifting Sands post, which predicted that oil would, as gold and silver did before it, fall to pieces. I’ve marked the point of my post on the chart below with an arrow. Well, so far, so good, in spite of the Saudis trying to prop things up. I think oil has much, much farther to go.
SPX closed above the 5 day MA yesterday and that took the number of consecutive closes above the 5 DMA to 27, which is a record as far back as my decent daily data goes back to the end of 1961. I was saying yesterday that this might be an all time record and Zero Hedge posted an article after the close yesterday confirming that, and adding that it equals a 27 day run in 1928. If we see another close above today then that would beat even that into a new SPX lifetime record.
There have been five previous runs of 20 or more closes above the 5 DMA going back to the end of 1961, and I’ve noted the stats on all of those for what happened after the end of the run in the short term, and also what happened over the next year. Those stats are on the chart but in summary the end led into a retracement of between 2% and 7% with the median retrace at 3.5%, and all of the previous five were up over the following twelve months, though as Tyler Durden noted, that wasn’t the case in the case of the run in 1928. Even in that case however the market doubled again before it halved, so regardless history is telling us to expect more upside after some retracement. SPX daily 5 DMA chart: (more…)
We saw SPX made the fifth straight doji or near-doji close yesterday, and all five of the last daily closes have been in the 1938 to 1941 range, which is a rare thing to see. How rare? I’ve had a look back and not as rare as I was expecting. I’m considering these as being a minimum three days tight range consolidation on the daily chart, with a minimum of three doji or near-doji closes in that period. There are sixteen instances from the start of 2009 and they break down as follows
9x – Modest retracement then into new highs
3x – Modest spike then full retrace back into doji area, then new highs
2x – Bear trend rally high
1x – Significant high
1x – Continuation
I’ve been looking for a modest retracement here before a move to new highs, and 75% of these previous examples saw a move down from the consolidation area. 75% of those then went to new highs and the other 25% went much deeper. Of the remainder three made a modest thrust up that was then fully retraced, before going to new highs, and just one of the sixteen continued straight up. (more…)
Just as “orange is the new black”, I think that “oil producers are the new gold miners.” It doesn’t sound quite as good, but here’s my point:
I’ve written before about the failing shelves of support with various commodities. Silver led the way in mid-September……