Welp, it sucks for me, but crude oil continues to zoom higher, which must be quite emboldening to the OPEC cartel. We now live in a world in which Gartman is right. What madness is this?
I’m having a good day (for the moment; I’ve learned not to trust these markets), and I’m particularly intrigued by the crude oil chart since I have a number of energy short positions. I’ve noticed that crude has been a relatively reliable trending market. It actually can sustain an uptrend or downtrend for a solid month or so (which is incredible these days). At the risk of oversimplifying things, here’s what I see:
I haven’t posted the full set of charts that I do every morning for a while and these are the companion charts that I use in my premarket videos for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. I posted that on twitter before the open today (@shjackcharts), but if you missed that you can see that here.
On ES I was saying that the outlook remains bullish as long as 2146 remains unbroken, and the LOD so far is 2147.75. If that remains the LOD then the outlook still leans bullish. ES Dec 60min chart:
Stan and I are looking for a high this week, or next Monday at the outside, but there’s a possibility that the high might already been in. SPX has been chopping above and below the daily middle band for a week or so now and if SPX should make a conviction break down from it the high might well be in. There are already very nice looking double top setups here on both NDX and RUT. We’re leaning higher first for a number of reasons, but they may not deliver. This is a week to be cautious about getting married to any longs.
One of the reasons we are looking higher here is the triangles forming on SPX and NQ particularly. That triangle is still forming on SPX, as you can see looking at the triangle on the RSI 5. This kind of triangle would generally complete, break up, and then do a thrust up out of the triangle that would open be the final move up in a sequence. SPX daily chart:
A trading friend of mine send me this on Sunday evening…………
The implication being that since DG was mighty skeptical about the entire OPEC deal, that oil would probably rise (in contrast to DG’s speculation). Sure enough, as I woke up this morning:
I’m in the air again, heading home from Chicago now. To wrap up the weekend, here are some of the short positions I have in the energy sector.
The bears didn’t have a good day yesterday, with a larger than expected decline on the indices, and clear breaks at the RTH on SPX close back below the daily middle band, the 50 hour MA and the 5dma, and ES losing the key weekly pivot area at 2152.25 that I highlighted as a key close area on a tweet yesterday afternoon. With the historical stats for the last day of September leaning 75% bearish, and the indices resting on key support levels the odds of the ATH retest on SPX that Stan and I have been looking for definitely looking lower, and you can see that reflected in the tone of my comments last night on the charts below.
Overnight though the picture changed entirely, with marginal new lows and 60min buy signals fixing on ES, NQ and TF, and with a triangle confirmed on NQ and a perfect bull flag channel established on TF. On my premarket video for subscribers to the Daily Video Service at theartofchart.net today I was leaning strongly bullish, and I’ve not seen anything since then to change that view. I’m thinking 50% odds or better that SPX trends up today. The direct link to that video is here. Hopefully some of you saw that when I posted that link on twitter before the open today.