Category Archives: Energy

Price and Time

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We saw SPX made the fifth straight doji or near-doji close yesterday, and all five of the last daily closes have been in the 1938 to 1941 range, which is a rare thing to see. How rare? I’ve had a look back and not as rare as I was expecting. I’m considering these as being a minimum three days tight range consolidation on the daily chart, with a minimum of three doji or near-doji closes in that period. There are sixteen instances from the start of 2009 and they break down as follows

9x – Modest retracement then into new highs
3x – Modest spike then full retrace back into doji area, then new highs
2x – Bear trend rally high
1x – Significant high
1x – Continuation

I’ve been looking for a modest retracement here before a move to new highs, and 75% of these previous examples saw a move down from the consolidation area. 75% of those then went to new highs and the other 25% went much deeper. Of the remainder three made a modest thrust up that was then fully retraced, before going to new highs, and just one of the sixteen continued straight up. (more…)

Oil is on the Brink

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This Weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil Futures says it all.

Oil is sitting just above a major price and Fibonacci Confluence support level of 75.00 (as I write this on Tuesday at 3:45 pm)…a break and hold below 75.00 could see it drop to around its next support level of 64.50.

Furthermore, we may see a bearish Death Cross form soon on this timeframe…should that occur (or even sooner in anticipation of that event), price may briefly pop up to re-test the cross-over level around 96.00 before plunging to, potentially, new depths.

The last time it broke below 75.00 was October of 2008 (during the financial crisis) when it sliced straight through the 200 MA. With volumes increasing over the past few weeks, we could see some fairly volatile price swings enter soon…one to watch. (more…)