Category Archives: Energy

Crude Repelled

By -

First off, I don’t know about you, but for me, the quantity of “good news from aboard” emails (e.g. dying or otherwise in-peril individuals who want to send me 40% of their fortune) has soared in the past few weeks. I’ve received eight in just the past few minutes. Does anyone on the planet actually go for this sort of scam? Incredible.

More importantly (and more relevant), I’m pleased to see crude falling this morning. Crude inexplicably soared yesterday after getting a report showing that inventory was more bloated than ever. Such a report initially sent crude plunging (which makes sense) then soaring (which makes none). My trendine held, however, and oil seems to have been effectively repelled by our resistance line.

0226-CL

Nigerian Prince

By -

Just a little earlier today, Nigeria floated a story about some kind of emergency OPEC meeting, and this rumor sent crude oil (which had been very weak earlier) soaring. I think this rumor has about as much credence as any other Nigerian prince story you’ll get in your inbox, and you should pay it as much respect. I remain blissfully short energy shorts up, down, and sideways. I think the entire oil sector is in horrific trouble, and these kind of manufactured, pathetic rumors will pop up as we continue to crumble downward in the months ahead. Bite me, Nigeria. Crude’s trendline break trumps your little rumors.

0221-crude

Support at the 50 Hour MA

By -

SPX didn’t make it to my minimum retracement target at 2080 as it made a perfect touch of the 50 hour MA and reversed hard there. That does tend to be solid support in uptrends until they are into the topping process and, as I was saying on Friday morning, this uptrend doesn’t look finished yet.

I am considering the possibility that a rising wedge from the October low is still forming and have drawn in that possible rising wedge support trendline in blue dotted line on the chart below. If that is the case then there is a very obvious target in the 2120-5 area at the intersection of the original wedge support trendline and the wedge resistance trendline. That is the first area of resistance that I am watching. SPX 60min chart:

150223 SPX 60min Trendlines BBs MAs

(more…)