Category Archives: Energy

Oil Deliciously Weak

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First off, wholly unrelated to this post, I’ve got to express amusement about the latest Trump flip-flop, which is the NAFTA switch. Yesterday, we were going to leave NAFTA. I wake up this morning and see that he’s changed his mind. Not that I care – – seriously, it matters hardly an iota to me – – but I think this guy’s got Gartman beat on flip-flopping by a Manhattan mile.

Now, as far as crude oil, I thought it might hammer out a bottom and try to claw its way back up to the low 50s, but the poor S.O.B. is such sorry shape that it couldn’t even manage to do that for more than a couple of sessions (see circle). I’m still short XOP and three energy stocks, but I’m sort of wondering if I should consider going long ERY again. Here’s the front month:

0427-oil

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Crude Hammering a Bottom?

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My bearishness toward energy has been chilling quite a bit lately. As I mentioned, I sold my ERY long position on Friday (at a nice profit), and I’ve been reducing the quantity of my energy shorts. It’s kind of a shame, since this was sort of the last bastion of bearishness, but crude seems to be forming a hammer on its front month, and tomorrow morning’s inventory report might provide a relief rally, so I’d rather not be short the sector.

0425-crudes

Old Faithless

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I’m sure everyone’s on the edge of their seat about my sleep schedule, so I’ll get that out of the way – – I got into bed at 4:30, fell asleep at 5:00, and was up again (thanks, dogs……..) at 6:00. Yeah, they let me sleep in. Anyway, as you might guess, it’s not a great day for ol’ Tim, but there is one bright spot: crude oil.

I’m a bit obsessed with crude, and it’s falling away nicely from a fairly meaty topping pattern (tinted in green):

0424-oil

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