Back on February 7th, I touted going bearish on energy stocks. Since ERY is up nearly 30% since then, it wasn’t at all a bad idea. Oil has been a delight, falling almost every single day for the past half-month, but I’m leering at it now, wanting it to shatter this damned support around $47.50 and really get things rocking……..
Crazy morning so far, but only because I’ve been dragged away from my computers to deal with other matters. Luckily, my ERY long (entered this morning) is doing well, and at long last the cup with handle pattern is complete. Go, oil, go!
First off, wholly unrelated to this post, I’ve got to express amusement about the latest Trump flip-flop, which is the NAFTA switch. Yesterday, we were going to leave NAFTA. I wake up this morning and see that he’s changed his mind. Not that I care – – seriously, it matters hardly an iota to me – – but I think this guy’s got Gartman beat on flip-flopping by a Manhattan mile.
Now, as far as crude oil, I thought it might hammer out a bottom and try to claw its way back up to the low 50s, but the poor S.O.B. is such sorry shape that it couldn’t even manage to do that for more than a couple of sessions (see circle). I’m still short XOP and three energy stocks, but I’m sort of wondering if I should consider going long ERY again. Here’s the front month:
My bearishness toward energy has been chilling quite a bit lately. As I mentioned, I sold my ERY long position on Friday (at a nice profit), and I’ve been reducing the quantity of my energy shorts. It’s kind of a shame, since this was sort of the last bastion of bearishness, but crude seems to be forming a hammer on its front month, and tomorrow morning’s inventory report might provide a relief rally, so I’d rather not be short the sector.
On April 11th, we got our rock-solid, never-fail signal to short the oil market. Since then, every single trading day – – nine consecutive, as of this writing – – have been black candlesticks, in spite of an (insane) mega-rally going on with other assets.
I’m sure everyone’s on the edge of their seat about my sleep schedule, so I’ll get that out of the way – – I got into bed at 4:30, fell asleep at 5:00, and was up again (thanks, dogs……..) at 6:00. Yeah, they let me sleep in. Anyway, as you might guess, it’s not a great day for ol’ Tim, but there is one bright spot: crude oil.
I’m a bit obsessed with crude, and it’s falling away nicely from a fairly meaty topping pattern (tinted in green):
Energy is far and away my biggest focus these days, both by way of a huge long ERY position and a ton of energy shorts. It’s all riding on this chart…….