Well, some mixed emotions this morning. A lousy jobs report has gold soaring, the dollar crumbling, and the rally in equities zeroed out (for now). As I am typing the ES remains green, just barely, but there’s a lot of action elsewhere. I’ve got 48 short positions and am about 180% margined, so it could be a good day for the bears.
Crude oil in particular — almost always our friend – – has resumed its hard slide, and on an intraday basis, you can see that it’s not exactly looking great for our OPEC buddies:
The “sting” part is that I got stopped out of QID, DRIP, and FAZ yesterday. The QID isn’t a big deal, since it looks like NASDAQ is remaining strong. FAZ is also kind of a “meh”. But DRIP is one I suspect is going to recover mightily today. I scored a 20% profit on it, even having been stopped out, but I think my bearishness on energy is going to play out longer-term.
I’m going to make this post rather fast for one reason: squirrels. You see, the squirrels around town get up at a very specific time, and once they are up and about, it’s all over for me and my dog walk. You’ve never had your arms yanked off quite so swiftly as when a bunch of bushy black tails are scampering around and two very large, strong dogs are intent on pursuing them. So I need to scoot while I have a chance.
In any event, you all know my fixation on crude oil and my bearish positioning on energy stocks. In spite of yet another very green day on ES and NQ, I’m feeling pretty good about this morning, because crude continues to weaken. It seems that the OPEC meeting this month turned out to be just a fake, fabricated, anti-market contra-trend joke, and the true direction of commodities has resumed. I remain gleefully long ERY and DRIP and short a hodgepodge of energy issues, each of which I detailed last weekend.
In spite of a VIX scraping zero and a SPY that fell all of nine hundredths of a single percentage point, my lovingly-crafted portfolio had a good day. I gained 1.6% on the day with my entirely short portfolio, and my “ETF Only” portfolio hit a lifetime high in value. It comprises a mere three instruments: DRIP, ERY, and FAZ. Those are all triple-leveraged.
Those energy ETFs are particular favorites of mine. Here is one of them, which is about to reach escape velocity away from its cup with handle pattern:
The star of today is, naturally, crude oil — and what a wild ride is has been! I came into the day long (VERY long……..) both DRIP and ERY. They started off well, and then they went into a free-fall which was, umm, a little disconcerting. Mercifully, I didn’t get stopped out, and they have turned around nicely. Take note, for instance, of the well-formed cup with handle pattern that has completed with ERY, shown below.
I don’t think I let myself know just how nervous I was about the OPEC announcement in the wee hours of this morning (my time). When I woke up, however, it took me about one second to grab my iPad from the side of my bed, fire it up, and look at crude oil. I was massively relieved to see that, quite obviously, whatever OPEC had to say did not thrill the market. (The “whatever” turned out to be a 9 month extension to their cuts, as opposed to something more dramatic).
I have a very substantial long position in both DRIP and ERY (the triple-bearish energy ETFs) as well as a scattering of energy shorts. I think this is going to be OK.
While Wednesday was my best day of the entire year, today has been my worst day of the week. The explanation can be explained quickly and simple with one image:
Since no one wants natural market forces to work these days, OPEC announced the extension of their already-in-place production cut. The response of crude oil has been steady all night, with prices ascending strongly, up over 3.5% as of this moment. To give this move some context, here’s the daily futures chart. The market is up about 10% since we bottomed earlier this month, but the multi-month trend still remains down.