Mentioned countless times; perhaps one of the best ideas I’ve ever offered. Target still a long way off. Kamikaze, baby.
I guess my prediction that DXJ would fall (made on April 20th) had some merit to it; thanks, Head and Shoulders! I confess, I am envious of a market that can GO down and STAY down (as I glance over at the SPY, which is down fifteen hundredths of a single percentage point as I’m typing this).
Happy Memorial Day. I shall again try to squeeze some blood from the stone known as a 3-day weekend and offer up a thought or two. These charts are intraday graphs of a few ETFs I find intriguing.
First up is the junior miners, which look just about ready to break lower. Precious metals have been a mess lately, and the chart below looks poised to break down to about $27.
The market has certainly “felt” a lot better to trade for me lately. The bulls are bears continue to be in a brutal battle, but lately, the smack-downs are coming from the bearish side instead of the bullish one. In other words, there are several times each day where it’ll seem like things are starting to get bid up, but my stops don’t get hit, and things start to unravel again. It’s a welcome change.
One chart that I think expresses neatly that (a) we’re in a long-term downtrend (b) we’ve had a vicious counter-trend rally for the past few months (c) which has ended……….is JNK, the high-yield ETF. I’ve got a big short position on this one, with a tight stop.
The big news, of course, is forthcoming in the monthly jobs report. I don’t care whether it’s strong or weak, because nobody knows how the market will react to either possibility. What I do care about, of course, is how the (ungodly large number of) short positions I’ve got handle the reaction.
Lately, I’ve been stopped out of virtually nothing, although in a tiny number of cases (such as DDD on Thursday) I decided to take profits. I’m not sure what else to say, except that I’ve got everything I’ve got two of………crossed.