Miner have had a terrific lift since September 30, a 12% ascent in just four sessions. I would respectfully point you to the DUST graph, however (the triple-bearish-on-miners ETF) which is looking like it might be ready for a bounce. Adjunct to this, GLD is looking like it’s losing steam.
A Brazilian Reasons To Be Bearish
In a recent post (“A Brazilian with a Sudden Rip of the Wax”), Tim noted that Brazil ETF EWZ was in free fall. For those who haven’t been keeping up on the bad news from Brazil, the headline of this AP article from Tuesday will give you a sense of what’s been happening: “Brazil’s economy plunging; no relief in sight amid political, financial chaos”.
A Hedged Bet Against Brazil
Every trading day, Portfolio Armor ranks all of the hedgeable stocks, ETFs, and other exchange-traded products in the U.S. by its estimate of their potential return over the next six months, based on an analysis of price history and option market sentiment. Then it subtracts hedging costs, and ranks them all by potential return net of hedging costs, or net potential return. On Tuesday, the highest-ranked ETF, and the 6th-ranked security overall, was BZQ, the 2x levered bet against Brazil. Portfolio Armor calculated a potential return of 15.2% for it over the next six months.
This is over about the past four years or so……….kind of puts things in perspective, I think.
Reuters Poll: Most Primary Dealers See December Rate Hike
In an article late last week (“Wall Street banks eye December forFed liftoff“), Reuters reported the result of its poll of primary dealers on the prospects of a Fed rate hike over the next several months:
Twelve of the 17 primary dealers, or the banks that deal with the Fed directly,polled said they expect the Fed to raise rates in December. Two pegged the date in October, and three in March 2016.
When Interest Rates Rise, Bond Prices Fall (more…)