Now that we’re getting a hearty rally, a new opportunity may be revealing itself by way of the emerging markets fund, shown below. There’s a gap at 37.56, which also corresponds nicely with a broken supporting trendline. The closer we get to that price level, the more appealing the risk/reward ratio is.
My “try to be a partial bull” yesterday blew up in my face. Not to be vanquished, I gave it another go today, and it’s working out (so far!) My best winners have been XOP and XME, and I’ve got a smattering of other long positions. In addition, I’ve trimmed back substantially on my shorts.
Having said that, let me be really, really clear: I think the Short Setup of 2015 is coming soon. I intend to hang on to these longs for a while, but they are, ironically, going to be my short signal when they reach their targets (well, let’s be humble – – IF they reach their targets).
One other helpful chart that I think will be the “all clear” for bears is JNK, shown below. If we can hack our way back to the level shown (and perhaps tomorrow’s Fed meeting will do the trick – who knows………) I intend to be obscenely and pornographically short. Until then, I’m in a relatively “balanced” portfolio, and crude oil in particular is being very helpful right now.
I realized that our mentally-challenged, differently-abled bullish friends will refuse to accept it for a long, long time, but their welfare-sponsored bull-run ended last December. The breakdown has been subtle since then, and the Silicon Valley stocks that are keeping my house valued at preposterous levels just keep shooting higher (GOOGL, etc.)
But the cold fact of the matter is that there’s rot beneath the surface, and the failure of JNK today – – a chart I’ve been watching with great zeal and interest – – seals the deal. A major bear market truly has started, and we’re going to see the fraud from the past six years unwind in a glorious, albeit inconsistent, fashion.