Category Archives: Fed-Reserve

Fed Ahead

By -

As a reminder, this Wednesday is one of the year’s eight FOMC days in which, yet again, we sit up and wonder whether (a) the Fed will inch interest rates up a miniscule amount, thanks to the oh-so-fantastic global economy or (b) the Fed will do absolutely nothing, telling us for the 972nd time that they are data-dependent. Good Lord, how can you even stand the suspense?

Meanwhile, the only thing happening on my screen that is even a little interesting is that our friend crude oil continues its gentle, consistent downtrend, and quite remarkably, for the 7th day in a row, its low and high are both lower than the previous day.

0725-crude

Wonderland

By -

Alice's_Adventures_Under_Ground_-_Lewis_Carroll_-_British_Library_Add_MS_46700_f45v“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?” –Alice in Wonderland

Silver out performs gold as both rise with Treasury bonds, which are in turn rising with stocks, as Junk bonds hit new recovery highs while USD remains firm as inflation expectations are out of the picture. This is highly atypical, maybe even unprecedented.

Some, deeply dug into their particular disciplines and biases, might say it is dysfunctional, as this backdrop simply does not make sense using conventional methods of analysis. Why again did I name this service Notes From the Rabbit Hole?

(more…)

Yen Retracing

By -

Since Monday, hmmm were there any secret meetings that day…. The Yen has been falling.  I laid out a fib retrace and am expecting the Yen to hold support at the 50% line.  This is the new fuel for the rocket ship we call our stock market.  This is also causing the precious metals some grief (why I bought DUST), and oil to some extent, as well.  My belief is the Yen will renew its climb when our Fed does nothing in April, and no way in June with Brexit vote, on tap.  In the meantime keep your NUGT’s warm.

2016-04-14_1722

The Waiting Wedge

By -

Well, here we are once again. Instead of an earnest examination of earnings, products, dividends, and chart patterns, we find ourselves at the mercy of a geriatric female dwarf with sociopathic tendencies. It’s an absurd world we live in. As I said on my Tastytrade show yesterday, every single chart is screaming, yelling, and waving its hands, saying “Short!” But given the lunatic madness of this smelly little troll, I’m not going to get bold until she’s hobbled away from the press conference podium, making small but audible granny farts with each feeble step.

0316-yellen