Category Archives: Fed-Reserve

Historical FOMC Market Reactions

By -

The horizontal lines on this SPY chart mark all FOMC meeting announcement days in since the beginning of 2014. Other than one exception following the December 17th, 2014 FOMC announcement*, the stock market traded lower within a few days to a couple of weeks.

*The rally that followed the December 17th FOMC announcement came on the heels of a 7 session, 5%+ correction in the SPY. Additionally, following the oversold/FOMC induced rally which peaked 7 days later, the SPY fell back sharply to the Dec 17th announcement level within just 5 sessions, quickly erasing that entire post-Fed rally.

FOMC market reactions June 17th

FOMC market reactions June 17th

Bottom line: While the primary trend in the market has been bullish in recent years, in nearly all instances, any post-FOMC announcement rallies were faded within hours or days. Taken in light with the current bearish technical posture of the equity markets, I would put good odds that the market will be trading lower within the next week or so.

Bernanke of Warren-Vitter & Last Resorts

By -

By Biiwii

Ref. Warren-Vitter and the lender of last resort

I have always liked Ben Bernanke, in that I think he is a soft-spoken, nice guy who took the hand off from Alan Greenspan in stride, heroically making chicken soup out of the chicken excrement he was left with. He kept his dignity and calm demeanor during the days when inflationist gold bugs codified the term “Helicopter Ben” and turned it into just another accepted way of saying “Ben Bernanke”.

(more…)

Peak Fed

By -

By Biiwii

clowncarWhile we’re on the subject of Mr. Bullard, the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH (#335) had a little fun with the Fed. Serious multi-market and economic analysis came later, but sometimes you just need to shake your head in awe and wonder.

Peak Fed

The Fed is important because millions of market participants believe it is important and a critical mass of people are under the illusion that its policies have put the “Great Recession” in the past and laid a path for a sustainably good economy going forward. In short, confidence in the Fed has never been more pervasive as it reaps the reward (the respect and confidence of the majority) for a job well done.

(more…)