What a glorious global economic gala! Apparently, contracting world GDP growth, monumental sovereign debt loads, ballooning central bank balance sheets, crashing commodity prices, competitive currency devaluations and synthetically suppressed interest rates, as far as the eye can see, are all great tidings to be joyously celebrated throughout this holiday season. Well, at least that’s the takeaway according to the whooping wonderful world of capital markets. Have no fear, all is perfectly in order. Jamie Dimon, Jim Cramer, Larry Fink and Company all have our back. The rest of us mere mortals are simply supposed to stand aside and take their professional word for it, silently sipping the financial establishment’s spiked eggnog until we attain a sheepish state of stupid stupor. After all, the money experts at the Fed are on the case, what could possibly go wrong? (more…)
This CNBC article starts off with the usual pablum about interest rates and how the Fed may decide to hold off beyond next spring given the lack of inflation expectations and effects in the economy. It’s brain melting mainstream media Pap 101.
Fed now expected to stay lower for a lot longer
Really? Ya think? As if its ears were burning here comes my favorite US market related macro chart…
My friend Grant Williams did this amazing presentation; I urge you to watch it (or at least listen to it in the background!)
Regarding my post of November 18th, what more can I say? Central Bankers continue to offer proof, as mentioned in today’s Zero Hedge article.
Here’s a shot of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index as it trades pre-market today. Although price has been climbing, it has been doing so on declining momentum…however, it’s still above the zero level, so it can be considered cautiously positive.
Over the years, much to his credit, David Stockman has consistently been vehemently emphatic when it comes to exposing the abject menace of unfunded fiscal overrun and overt monetary accommodation. Today, Stockman has become a veritable tour de force wrecking ball, directing his outrage squarely at the entrenched political and monetary establishment that has foolishly and recklessly ignored these undeniable economic malignancies that he has been tirelessly forewarning. (more…)
In less than the time it takes for a chrysalis to release one of life’s remarkable transformations, many once called “capitalists” woke to find the world they once knew changed into something only dreamed or told in folklore.
Where business models resembling unicorns abounded along with rainbows in their resembling equivalent of over-arching ETF’s. All available in a multitude of hues and proportions so plentiful: It was hard for one not to well up when contemplating. For in this new fairytale land there must certainly be a pot of gold at the end of every “rainbow.” However, one would be mistaken. For one must remember this is a “Keynesian Shangr-la” and gold here is useless. (insert choir music here) (more…)
I am not a stranger to disappointment. There have been plenty of times in my life when reality did not meet expectations. This probably gives me plenty in common with other fellow humans. It’s certainly not like things always go my way. Far from it.
Being a trader, this is a phenomenon that is almost universal. People anticipate what they think is going to happen, they position themselves for it, and reality dictates whether or not they profit or not. It’s the nature of the beast.
October was an extraordinary month. It was tremendously exhilarating for the first half, and it was soul-crushingly difficult during the second (this is from a bear’s perspective; flip the descriptors for bulls). As deeply oversold as we were on October 15th (and with the VIX in excess of 30), I certainly expected some kind of bounce – and I made no secret of it – but I absolutely did not expect a bounce of this size and vigor. (more…)