Category Archives: Fibonacci

Rubber Bands

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Well that was an impressive trend down day yesterday and a lot of technical damage down. I am now officially impressed, and while I had been thinking we might put in the retest high just before the holiday weekend, Greece has pulled that forward a few days and in all likelihood both the 2015 high and the retest are now in the review mirror. This would be a good time to pull together a few reference posts to show where I think we are here.

The first post is from Monday 2nd February where I confirmed that the January close on SPX met the criteria for some very bearish long term stats suggesting very strongly that the best case for SPX in 2015 would be a flat close, and the worst case a large decline. You can see that post here.

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Bearish Confirmation

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Just a very quick post this morning as I needed to take my daughter to the orthodontist and only got back a few minutes ago.

A rare day yesterday with a strong decline sustained into the close, rare in itself but very rare on FOMC day. The wind may be changing. The bulls had to break back up over the middle band and totally failed to do that.

This break back below the SPX daily middle band delivers two downside targets. The first is possible range support in the 1990 area, with the daily lower band just below it at 1987. If that fails then the obvious next target is the 50% fib retracement of the move up from 1820,l and that is at 1957. SPX daily chart:

150129 SPX Daily Main Chart

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Breakaway Santa

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SPX closed back over the 5 DMA yesterday and unless a war starts in the next few minutes, looks likely to gap up hard at the open today. Bulls need a green day today to confirm a likely retrace low and after that SPX should be off to the races for the rest of December. If this is a true breakaway gap then the opening gap today will not fill. Daily middle band resistance is at 2045. SPX daily 5DMA chart:

141218 SPX Daily 5DMA Breaks

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