I haven’t been trading gold or miners recently. Precious metals certainly seem to have made some kind of bottom; whether it is “the” bottom remains to be seen, but getting beneath the levels set at the end of 2013 would take quite a strong punch.
Today I drew the Fibonacci retracements spanning from GLD’s high (September 6, 2011) to its recent low (December 31, 2013). What’s fascinating is that even those these anchor points are ex post facto, the price of GLD seems to have an awful lot of respect for these retracement levels as support and resistance. (more…)
New Fed Chairgnome Yellen will be addressing Congress this morning, addressing the very serious problem of deflation at the Fed and detailing her plans for tackling it. As you can see from the image below this is a serious issue, which if not addressed may mean that financial policy may be determined by a leprechaun in the easily foreseeable future, and possibly even a gerbil a decade or two further down this path. A committee is looking into whether that would be likely to have a positive or negative impact on the quality of Fed policy. Deflation at the Fed since 1980: (more…)
SPX and other indices finally broke away from the daily lower bollinger band yesterday, ending the ten day lower band ride downwards. My view here, though I could be mistaken, is that this is a counter-trend rally that will be followed by another move down to a lower low somewhere in the range between a test of the SPX 200 day MA, currently at 1710, and rising support from the 1074 low, currently in the 1650 area. My rally thesis would be weakened by a sustained move above the daily middle bollinger band, which closed yesterday at 1806. (more…)
Although it didn’t stop it the last time I mentioned it, the fanlines for Northrop Grumman are again matching up against its price. Based on this, I’ve got a small short position on NOC:
I’m not going to post the ES chart today, as not much has changed since yesterday morning and I’m short on time. ES is trading around the 50 hour MA (currently at 1825), which is saying that the retracement may be ending or ended. Bulls need to break back over 1833 ES confirm that the retracement is over and trigger a double-bottom target targeting new highs. (more…)
It’s interesting to me that the USD/JPY is retreating so swiftly right now, in light of the almost perfect tag of the 61.8% Fibonacci line, marked below with an arrow. Yen weakness has, of course, been hugely responsible for equity strength lately. He that lives by the sword, dies by the sword.