Not to get all Elliott-Wavey on you, but I’ve made a very slight change to my $SPX chart with respect to its Fibonacci retracement. Specifically, I’ve moved the lower extreme to the 1980 low instead of the 1982 low, which I should have done in the first place!
Editor’s Note: What you are about to read is dead wrong. So keep reading, because there’s a correction later…………
As I mentioned when SlopeCharts was introduced, one advantage of forcing me off ProphetCharts (which I have been using for a dozen years) was that I would get a fresh perspective on the markets. With all my symbols, trendlines, and other embellishments gone, I’d be able to perhaps shake off some old biases (or at least reduce them).
In that spirit, I offer this rather surprising post, in which I offer up the prospect of equity markets rising another 10% or so. Now perhaps my stating such a thing – – me, the permabear, saying something broadly bullish – – will be taken by some as a sign of the market top. I’ll happily exchange ridicule for top-ticking a market in exchange for a true downtrend! But regardless, here we go……….
Bravo bulls, bravo.
Not only did you obliterate the prior all-time high in the S&P 500, but you’ve also set us on the final path higher toward /es 3000 (more on that in a moment).
But let’s not buy and hold just yet. The bulls actions have consequences, and those must be dealt with first.
Consequence #1 – AB=CD
We’ve completed an equal move from the /es (continuous) Brexit low, to the August 23rd prior high, and down to the post-election low (November 9th), with Wednesday’s blast through 2238.50.
I’m concluding latin post title week with a phrase which means ‘before all else, be armed’. This market could get very interesting over the next few weeks, hard as that might be to imagine after the last few weeks. We must all be careful not to get caught on the wrong side of a trade that goes the other way hard. The mini-crash almost exactly a year ago followed an August daily band compression that was smaller than this one.
Decent market information is a useful weapon too of course, Stan and I are analysts rather than clairvoyants but on a good day it can be hard to tell one from the other. I’m particularly pleased with this video that I recorded last night for our Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net, which has given me a very nice morning and a great start to the holiday weekend. I’ll go through the calls on the companion bonus charts below, which were used in the video and then posted for subscribers afterwards. I’ve not included the ES and TF charts as I was mainly relying on the NQ chart for equity index direction, for reasons that should be obvious on the video and chart: (more…)