As expected, crude has been fighting its way back, and this morning it made things easy by nailing retracement perfectly (see green tinted area). I guess the chatter about a new OPEC meeting (remember those?) gave things a boost. I’m staying at a distance, however, since I think strength to the next level higher (about $45) is still possible, as the meaningful topping pattern (magenta tint) is still one Fibonacci level higher.
First off, I must complain mightily to the market gods: Kuroda disappointed the market. The USD/JPY is collapsing. It wasn’t that long ago this would have meant a huge selloff in equities. How about today? Well, we got a little weakness at first, but now – – nope. ES green. TF green. NQ green. Tim’s stomach……green. Nothing is bringing this market lower. Nothing.
I lightened up swiftly on energy shorts this morning, because even though crude was down about a full percentage point (yet again), it tagged its Fibonacci retracement, so I figured it was time to scurry away.
Bonus Image: the pure, sinless future head of the world (which is what last night’s pure white pantsuit was all about). (more…)
Well, now that I’ve recovered from the 20 minutes of the DNC I watched tonight (including Earth’s Worst Rendition of “Bridge Over Troubled Water”), I thought I’d toss one last post into the hopper to end the day: Apple. They report after the close tomorrow, and I’ve got a big short position in them. My view is that Fibonacci is going to act as a wall (green tint). We shall see. G’nite.
My disinterest in the markets is reaching nearly unprecedented levels. Perhaps it’s foolish for a person whose livelihood is based on market analysis to make such a declaration, but I have a reputation for honesty, and I might as well adhere to that. The markets are annoying, tiresome, and have a completely “captured” feel to them.
Indeed, I got up at my usual time (4;45 a.m.), did my typical morning prep, took my dogs on a long walk, came home……….and went back to bed. It’s hard to overstate how weird that is for me to do that. It’s akin to Hillary Clinton deciding to return all her ill-gotten speaking fees even though she found some lovely dresses in a “petite” size that she’d love to buy since they make her look so sensational. It simply doesn’t happen. But it did today. I even stayed in bed for the first half hour of the trading day. It was actually kind of glorious.
So even though charts are totally without merit, technical analysis is a hare-brained fantasy, and Fibonaccis are a joke (at least according to the upstanding citizens who swing by Slope for time to time for no other purpose to pee on my raison d’etre) , I wanted to follow up on my post from last night. Because of a loving, merciful God, crude is, in fact, falling to pieces, down about 4.2% as I am typing these words, completely in line with what Fibonacci (and my trendline, shown in green) predicted:
The blue tint is the Fib level, and it must be broken for the next phase to begin. If it does, we can look forward to the green tint as the drop zone, with about $42.25 as our next target.
Of course, that’s only if you believe this nonsense.