I have been watching with great amusement John Stumpf getting corn-holed by Congress, particularly by Elizabeth Warren. It’s clear their reputation is totally trashed. These guys are toast. And the bear market hasn’t even started yet. John Stumpf for prison! And Carrie too!
Bankers have a justifiably awful reputation, particularly after the financial crisis. Although they completely raped the country, the general meme afterward was, “Yeah, gee, they got away with it, but we’ve learned our lesson as a society. Now we have the laws in place to harshly punish misbehavior on the part of bankers, and if they do anything naughty again, we’re going to throw the book at them. So………..sorry, society, but we’ve got your back now. Honest.”
Thus the Dodd-Frank law was seen as the “make good” for humanity letting Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, and all the rest of them not be strung up by their necks in 2008.
We got our first test of this recently when Carrie Tolstedt, whose 102,000 “team members” (ummm – clerks) were directed to execute one of the most massive frauds in financial history, was caught red-handed. Carrie was one of those featured in the “most powerful women in banking” cover stories that American Banker does regularly.
On this quiet holiday weekend, I’m just going to share charts which have these characteristics: (1) I am not in position on any of them; (2) they look like attractive short set-ups; (3) they are all in the same sector; in this case: finance and real estate. Here you go:
Bank of New York:
Well, I confess I had forgotten what it felt like to bank profits on a daily basis. It’s a nice feeling. Of course, the anti-Christ Yellen has done a fine job yanking away such feelings in times past, so naturally I’m nervous about Wednesday. All the same, these little BTFD rallies keep failing, which warms my heart.
The small caps are approaching support. Of course, my hope is that the trendline does, in fact, break. The FOMC will settle that matter, I think, one way or the other.
Financials have significantly lagged the market since the bottom in February and the gap might be closing as market sells off while strong move in financials indicates further strength ahead, possibly even longer term as interest rate environment is changing and yield curve might reverse and steepen up again.
I have been writing about Deutsche Bank for about six months now. My first post, back in October 2015, showed how DB, then trading above $29/share, was sitting on multi-decade support. The chart was showing warning signs that bad things were on the horizon, particularly if it broke below $25.
Low and behold, price did indeed break below $25 which I noted in my December 11, 2015 post titled Deutsche Bank: Something is Seriously Wrong. I showed again not only how broken the long-term chart was, but how DB had grossly underperformed relative to its financial peers (re-posted here):
In my post of December 29, 2015, I stressed the importance of the Financials ETF (XLF) in, potentially, propelling the SPX to an increase of 5-6% for 2016.
You can see from the Daily ratio chart below of XLF:SPX, that price weakened considerably afterwards and fell to new lows not seen since 2012. Price is attempting to stabilize above that low, but all three indicators are still in downtrend and display new “SELL” signals, and price action is still under the bearish influence of the Death Cross formation of the moving averages.
If price drops and holds below near-term support of 0.0105, we could see a significant drop in the SPX, likely to new lows for the year, as I mentioned on April 3.