The World Market Index will need to recapture the 200-day moving average, as well as the 1900 level, as shown on the following Daily chart. Since it’s still under the bearish influences of a moving average Death Cross formation, it’s still vulnerable to a retest of the 50-day moving average, or lower, should we see major world markets plunge…a drop and hold below the 50 level on the RSI could point price in that direction.
Just about every day for weeks now, I’ve been thinking, “CIB sure looks like a huge topping pattern; I should short it, but it’s already gone down so much.” But then it would just keep sinking. So I finally threw my hands up and decided that the enormity of the pattern would take care of everything in the end. Thus, yesterday, I shorted it. Here ya go:
I’m ready to do a projection of what I am thinking may well happen on SPX over the next twelve months. My main scenario is this, and variants of the same scenario. It’s a good fit with the pattern structure, and the first month indicator for 2015 that indicated strongly that 2015 would at best be a flat year.
Does this match any other forecasts that I’m reading? Well no, most are far more bullish and they could be right, but I posted an even more minority view projection for bonds at the start of 2014 to general incredulity, and price followed my arrows very well for the next six months as everyone betting on the almost universally expected big bonds decline got a very nasty surprise. We’ll see whether this projection fares as well as that one did. SPX daily projection 150224:
Just a very quick post this morning as I needed to take my daughter to the orthodontist and only got back a few minutes ago.
A rare day yesterday with a strong decline sustained into the close, rare in itself but very rare on FOMC day. The wind may be changing. The bulls had to break back up over the middle band and totally failed to do that.
This break back below the SPX daily middle band delivers two downside targets. The first is possible range support in the 1990 area, with the daily lower band just below it at 1987. If that fails then the obvious next target is the 50% fib retracement of the move up from 1820,l and that is at 1957. SPX daily chart: