Category Archives: FOREX

Unfinished Business

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The SPX daily RSI 5 closed at 32.79 yesterday, and the retracement is now larger than two of the past 29 signals since the start of 2007. SPX has reached a level where a low wouldn’t be an extreme statistical outlier. This isn’t a false signal that is part of a larger sell signal forming however, so once I strip out the four of those, then 20 of the remaining 25 signals made it to the target level at 30 on the RSI 5. This retracement may well make it there as well.

There is something else to consider as well. SPX has broken below the daily middle band, and confirmed that break by holding below it yesterday. When this happens then there will be a test, most of the time, of either the daily lower band, or a significant moving average. My eye is drawn to the daily lower band at 1976.62, and the 50 DMA at 1972.56. Both of these are decent targets for any further move down. SPX daily chart: (more…)

A Closer Look at the US Dollar

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Excerpted from NFTRH 308’s opening segment…

A Closer Look at the US Dollar

Using the standard weekly currency chart we followed along for months as the Euro found resistance at the long-term downtrend line as expected, the commodity currencies long ago lost major support and non-confirmed the commodity complex and the US dollar moved from a hold of critical support, to a trend line breakout, to its current impulsive and over bought status. It is time now for a closer look at Uncle Buck since this reserve currency is key to so many asset markets the world over.

As the charts below show, USD is over bought on both daily and weekly time frames. But the monthly is interesting because its big picture view is that of a basing/bottoming pattern, and it is bullish. That is a long-term director, so regardless of what happens in the short-term, a process of unwinding the hyper-inflationist ‘Dollar Collapse’ cult is ongoing. Signs point to disinflation toward deflation. (more…)

NFTRH 307 Excerpt; Currencies

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NFTRH has been bullish the USD and bearish the Euro, Canada dollar and Aussie dollar for quite some time now, most often using this simple weekly chart of various currencies. Months ago we noted USD creeping out of its downtrend (green dotted line) and the Euro falling out of its wedge (red dotted line). Back then, sentiment toward the USD was far different than it is today. So this week the Currency segment included some thoughts (and data) on USD and Euro sentiment as well.

Also of note, while the excerpt speculates that a USD reversal could trigger bounces in commodities and precious metals, these items generally remain bearish until proven otherwise. Not the other way around. (more…)