Category Archives: FOREX

Looking for Lower Levels Ahead Final Wave Up in USD/CAD

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The May 14th low in the USD/CAD counts best as the bottom of a large degree wave 4. The rally that we have seen that made a local top on August 4th counts as a very clear 3 wave structure so far. This leaves us looking for another high to complete our wave five wave structure off of the May 14th low.

Now while the pattern certainly does suggest that we should see new highs into the later part of the year the overall structure of the pattern ideally should see lower levels before heading higher into the final wave ((v)) up. These lower support levels currently come in at 1.2956 – 1.2770 which is shown on the chart in the form of a blue box, this is our buy zone. As long as we remain over the lower support level of 1.2770 then the probabilities are good that we will see new highs into the 1.3414 level with possible extensions into the 1.3688 level, these are our sell zones. Should we break under the 1.2770 level the count will still remain valid, however the probabilities of seeing follow-through to the upside under this count are reduced. A break under the 1.2563 level would invalidate this count and suggest that we may have made a more complex top on August 4th. This is the level that we would stop out of our trade.


Impact of China Yuan Devaluation

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Last night, the USD “broke out” to the upside against the Chinese Yuan.

Of course, since the Yuan is a centrally controlled currency by the Chinese Government, the sudden, violent up-move of the USD vs. the Yuan was orchestrated by the Chinese central planners, who devalued the Yuan versus the USD.

In effect, China has joined the growing legion of currency “depreciators” like Japan, Europe, Australia, Canada, Russia, who have sought to remedy their economic woes by resorting to a lower currency– to move the competitiveness needle ever so slightly in their particular direction.

Welcome to the next phase of “the global currency war” for market share.

Of course, the USD is the biggest loser in this war if its value continues to strengthen, which means many U.S. corporations who depend on overseas trade for a chunk of their revenues, will confront increasingly stiff headwinds.

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Inflection Point Test

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On Tuesday last week I put forward a favored scenario for a strong rally that would make a high in the 2115-20 area. The following day I noted the strong daily buy signal that had fixed, and on the Thursday I called the double bottom with a target at 2123. Looking at ES that 2123 target may be made at or near the open today.

Quite a few of you will have read those posts as SPX was testing the 2040s, and those of you that didn’t think that I was having bullish delusions most likely thought that was a credible bearish scenario. Fast forward to today and almost everyone is seeing this as a bullish breakout that will likely result in new highs. That was always a possibility of course, but has anything actually changed in the interim apart from the big rally that I predicted having now happened? I drew the arrows on the daily chart below on Wednesday last week and as you can see, SPX is pretty much where I was expecting then. SPX daily chart:

150716 SPX Daily Patterns BBs MAs


Looking for the Grexit

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The Greek referendum was a clear vote against further austerity and we should see this week whether the ECB bluff that the Greeks have called is in fact a bluff. I suspect it isn’t and that a grexit is now the most likely outcome. If so then I think that’s great news for the Greeks, who can finally default and start rebuilding. It’s a rare country that still has a shrinking economy a couple of years after default. If that’s the way it goes then it would nice for that to be quick, as the constant headlines have become a serious bore.

SPX hasn’t been generous with trendlines since the last high. I do now have a three touch resistance trendline established on Thursday and I’ll be watching to see whether that survives the day. As long as it survives my lean is bearish. SPX 15min chart:

150706 SPX 15min Trendlines