Category Archives: FOREX

Bull/Bear Struggle for Control of EUR/USD

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The following Monthly chart of EUR/USD Forex pair shows that price has been bouncing (generally) between 1.15 (dotted yellow horizontal line) and 1.08 (solid yellow horizontal line) since February of this year.

At the moment, 1.15 is defined by a confluence of a Fibonacci fanline and a falling trendline…1.08 sits around the lower one-third level of the large price range between the 2000 lows and the 2008 highs.

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USD; Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions

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USD has been in correction since the hysterical March top. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows that was interrupted last week when USD failed to make a lower low, Hammered and bounced… right to the EMA and SMA 50’s.

So we remain on watch for a) a higher high or b) a lower low. It’s very simple. As it stands, the near-term is bearish until it proves bullish, not the other way around. That is because the existing trend is down (AROON, bottom Panel).

usd

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A Little Spot Of Greece

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The bulls won FOMC on points yesterday, with a break back over the 5DMA, a test of the daily middle band, and a close on the 50 day EMA. Today they need to hold the 5 DMA (currently 2096) on a closing basis, with important support at the 50 hour MA just below at 2094.5. Above bulls need to break over the 50 DMA at 2104 and deliver a close more than a couple of handles over the daily middle band at 2106. If they can do that, then they can have a shot at retesting the all time high. SPX daily 5DMA chart:

150617-C SPX Daily 5DMA Breaks

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The Second Mouse

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On the daily chart the main thing that happened yesterday was that bulls tried to break back over the middle band and failed. Unless that changes quickly then the next obvious target is either the the 50 MA and EMA in the 2100 area, or the triple support/target at the 100 MA, the lower band and rising wedge on the middle rising wedge (mummy bear) of the three bearish rising wedges, all in the 2081-4 area, that I was looking at yesterday morning. I’m strongly favoring that lower target. SPX daily chart:

150602 SPX Daily Rising Wedge BBs MAs

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