This would be a quick trade on NZDUSD, LONG, possibly targeting the 0.6546 target. NZDUSD has been up last week and up for the last 2 months (September and October, not November), we like it more SHORT than LONG, but a small opportunity for a quick profit is always worth trying.
This model below is our quantitative LONG model for NZDUSD LONG. What we do is to calculate statistically what price levels usually determine a trend reversal (i.e. a bounce), based on a very large databases that contains all the historical price retracements for this market since 1991, i.e. 25 years of data.
As I blearily grabbed the iPad from the side of my bed this morning, before I fired up the quotes, the most cynical part of myself thought: “Just watch. The ES will be green.” And, yep, sure enough, the market has rocketed about 25 points all night, because God knows there’s nothing more bullish for stocks than one of the biggest terrorist attacks of all time on a major Western city.
The ideal scenario takes us into the 1.3215 – 1.3143 level as a retrace for wave ii of (iii), which we would then expect to be followed by a very strong move higher for wave iii of (iii). Click on either image for a much larger version.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net by Mike Golembesky.
The table below is part of a service that we offer to our paying subscribers and it shows a comparative view of the number of consecutive price closes in the same direction, across 3 time periods: DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY, for a number of ETFs, Futures, FX Spot and Indices (the complete coverage list can be found on our website).
$USDOLLAR From an Elliott Wave perspective the consolidation pattern in the FXCM US Dollar Index that we have seen since the May 13th low could be viewed in one of two ways. The first of which is that the May 13th low was the wave a of (iv) and this consolidation pattern was a b wave triangle after which we expect a c wave down to complete wave (iv) into the 11,600 area before continuing back higher in our larger degree bullish pattern. This is my preferred count at this time and is shown in white on the charts:
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Mike Golembesky.
EURUSD: 1.09678 — ideal Fib support and possible target for the wave (i) down — was not hit yet. But relatively small bounce provided us with moderate overbought indication — and I still can expect at least 1.09678 target to be reached before the larger corrective bounce will occur.