The markets haven’t been behaving quite as I expected the last couple of days, and I’m wondering whether the spring high might already be in. If so we might well find that out today.
Bulls want to get this back over the 50 hour MA into the next move up, either directly from here or ideally from a test of rising channel support, now in the 2088-90 area. If they can’t hold that support then the uptrend is called into very serious question. Triangle support is now in the 2060 area but main support is at the double top support low at 2039.69. On a break below the spring high was most likely made at 2125.92. Until we see a break below rising channel support at 2088-90 though, the bulls still have the technical edge here. SPX 60min chart:
SPX fell hard on Friday, made the smaller double top target and broke down from the larger double top. Shortly after the LOD SPX broke up from a falling wedge that I called on twitter, and closed the day at a retest of broken larger double bottom support. The retracement low may be in, and if we are to see a fail without another test of triangle resistance in the 2011 area then I’ll be looking for resistance at the 50% and 61.8% retracements on the falling wedge, in the 2092 and 2096.5 areas respectively. The 50 hour MA closed Friday at 2096 and is key resistance today. SPX 15min chart:
Just a reminder that I am beating the drum for folks to test an iPhone app I’ve been developing. Here’s the post in case you missed it.
I’m not really sure what it might mean for equities, but I think the US dollar is going to start really heading south. The dollar index, as shown below, peaked a number of weeks ago. Since then, it has been – – to put it kindly – – sloppy.