Category Archives: FOREX

Rally Resistance Levels

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I was explaining yesterday why I think that the current move on SPX is just a rally within a downtrend that has not yet bottomed out. That means that I am watching the significant resistance levels above in the expectation that one of those will be a brick wall at which SPX will reverse into the next move down. Yesterday the rally closed at 1830, on the weekly middle band that broke on Friday and is significant short term resistance. It may be that the rally will stall there, though we might also see a break over that resistance and then a return to close back on or underneath it by the close this week. SPX weekly chart:

140415 SPX Weekly Patterns BBs MAs

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Yen to the Rescue?

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Much of the recent weakness in equities (particularly Japanese equities) can be attributed to a weakening dollar vis a vis the Japanese Yen. Looking at this cross-rate, it seems poised to strengthen which, as much as I hate to say it, could certainly provide some meaningful relief to equity bulls. Of course, the Fed minutes (released two hours after the close today) will probably provide the most important direction, short-term.

0409-yen

TGIF

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I’m not going to be saying much today as I’m not feeling well. Fortunately it’s Friday so I may well call it a day early today and go back to bed. If I trade at all today I’m going to be relying on the rest of the intraday trading team in the Princeton Trader trading room to do my thinking for me.

SPX closed 4.5 handles under the upper bollinger band yesterday. This doesn’t mean that the upper band ride has ended but it’s important that the upper band at least be tested today and that support at yesterday’s low at 1882.65 be respected today. If SPX has a strong day then I will be expecting the upper band to close today in the 1896-1900 range. SPX daily chart: (more…)