Until March 13, energy stocks were a total kick on the short side. Since then, they’ve been clawing their way back, right alongside crude oil. I have no interest in shorting crude, but as we approach the key gap I’ve pointed out below, I’m more and more interested in getting back into the short side of energy stocks.
I’ve already in a few energy positions right now; namely: BP, CLR, CSIQ, DOV, FSLR, GPOR, HFC, IOC, NBL, OKE, SM, and WPZ.
As for my portfolio in general, I amped things up Tuesday. I went from 52 short positions to 75. Let’s see what effect, if any, the Fed Minutes have on Wednesday. The meat of any move may not take place until we get a critical mass of earnings reports over the next few weeks.
It looked like a few rats tried to jump ship as the bell rang on 2014. But it is hard to trust any one day or week as a guide during the holidays so we can just call it what it was, a down week within a general US market uptrend.
The strong uptrend however, is on the longer-term charts. Some dailies are in down trends kicked off by the pre-Santa correction (ref. the NDX below and the NYSE, as two examples). As we noted in NFTRH, the Russell 2000 was the first to go daily trend up into what is often ‘small cap season’. It has got a big fat gap though, and a test of the MA 50 seems in store.
Nasdaq 100 is relatively sloppy, remains in a daily downtrend and also has a big gap to fill. Of course, this index had a lot of momo in it into December and can fall quite a way without losing its bull market. The next two support levels are shown. As an aside, I sold Tech Generals INTC, MSFT and AAPL into the post-FOMC rise with a level of remorse. Now? Not so much. They remain on watch pending coming interpretation of this pullback. (more…)
Enough time has passed that I wanted to mention an idea I gave my Slope Plus subscribers back on November 21st. I wrote, in part, “USO did a perfect gap-fill at 29.08. I shorted some crude oil right here, since this is an extremely clean stop.” My stop was too tight (by a few pennies), but my readers have been warned of that many times, so I re-entered the short afterward. In any case, the gap is noted with the green arrow, and the post was written at the red arrow.
Even I remain stunned how far, and how fast, crude oil is collapsing. The prospect of oil heading to, say, $35 per barrel seems totally plausible to me. At least we have one unmanipulated market that illustrates that, under the fake surface, the world economy isn’t doing so hot.