It looked like a few rats tried to jump ship as the bell rang on 2014. But it is hard to trust any one day or week as a guide during the holidays so we can just call it what it was, a down week within a general US market uptrend.
The strong uptrend however, is on the longer-term charts. Some dailies are in down trends kicked off by the pre-Santa correction (ref. the NDX below and the NYSE, as two examples). As we noted in NFTRH, the Russell 2000 was the first to go daily trend up into what is often ‘small cap season’. It has got a big fat gap though, and a test of the MA 50 seems in store.
Nasdaq 100 is relatively sloppy, remains in a daily downtrend and also has a big gap to fill. Of course, this index had a lot of momo in it into December and can fall quite a way without losing its bull market. The next two support levels are shown. As an aside, I sold Tech Generals INTC, MSFT and AAPL into the post-FOMC rise with a level of remorse. Now? Not so much. They remain on watch pending coming interpretation of this pullback. (more…)
Enough time has passed that I wanted to mention an idea I gave my Slope Plus subscribers back on November 21st. I wrote, in part, “USO did a perfect gap-fill at 29.08. I shorted some crude oil right here, since this is an extremely clean stop.” My stop was too tight (by a few pennies), but my readers have been warned of that many times, so I re-entered the short afterward. In any case, the gap is noted with the green arrow, and the post was written at the red arrow.
Even I remain stunned how far, and how fast, crude oil is collapsing. The prospect of oil heading to, say, $35 per barrel seems totally plausible to me. At least we have one unmanipulated market that illustrates that, under the fake surface, the world economy isn’t doing so hot.
In its entire history as a public entity, Twitter has had four earnings reports, and for all four of those, there has been a big price gap. Earnings yesterday after the close were no exception, and I was cheerfully short the stock (I thank Slopers for chattering so much about it, since it didn’t even occur to me to short the stock until you guys chimed in). One wonders if the day will come that Twitter’s earnings don’t shock the market in one direction or the other. I’ve covered.
The stock below, KeyCorp, is a good short candidate in its own right, but it’s also representative of the kind of short I’m seeking these days. It has these elements:
+ a clean topping pattern;
+ a firm drop, exhibiting that it’s vulnerable to the general weakness we saw in past weeks;
+ a hearty bounce, pushing it to a more attractive risk/reward level.
As with so many other stocks, this one has a horizontal line anchored on a gap (in this instance, at a dollar value of $12.71) (more…)