We are ready to enter into a 7 week weak period if you give credence to the cycles of the market. Presidential election years have a rhythm, and it is telling us to short this market until mid June. Take some summer profits and short this sucker again, and this year could be a doozy (spell check wanted me to replace with boozy, hmm) as it is the weakest start of a presidential cycle in a long time.
I gotta tell ya, this sort of thing turns my stomach:
I consider myself an observer. I am hyper-ly aware of the world around me, and for the longest time people in general have not had the same alarm I feel for some time about our Country, future, and world. I always tell my family things don’t matter to people until it does. Then things happen fast.
That Nexus has arrived. The trigger, in my opinion was when Trump touched the third rail of politics and took on the immigration lobby and found out the electricity wasn’t on, and then in prime time took down the Doyenne of the Media right, in the most vile way, and people cheered, on both sides.
The reason, in my opinion people are sick and tired of being sick and tired. They are tired of politicians telling them the things they are mandating for them are good for them (the people) when it is a clear as day it is for the benefit of them (the elites).
The best thing about weekly scheduled “news” events is that they can offer volatility and entertainment. The worst thing is that unsuspecting retailers regarding them as actual “news” and don’t recognize news events and scheduled releases for the scams that they truly are.
This week’s exhibit in the you-can’t-make-this-stuff-up category is none other than light, sweet, and lately crude West Texas Intermediate.
Only a government employee could point to a 99.5% failure rate and declare it a success.
Look no farther than my local newspaper this morning: the city of Menlo Park (which is an affluent superb like Palo Alto, but even whiter and more sheltered) spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on equipment to read the license plates of all the cars passing by certain intersections. (We’ll set aside the creepiness of the surveillance and just focus on the economics here.)
Greetings from Orlando where, as is almost always the case, my family is frolicking and having carefree fun while I’m dealing with stock market nonsense. It’s my preference, actually, but I can’t help gaze out the window jealously from time to time, since most of the world isn’t dealing with complete sell-outs with Tsipras stabbing his countrymen in the back and bending over to the EU hoodlums. Harry Potter rides sound a lot more entertaining.
I had mentioned the gap being filled. Strictly speaking, that isn’t true yet (unless you count the collective rectum of Greek citizenry). On an intraday basis, which is what I use, the gap is at 2095.50 (shown below on the ES chart as the horizontal red line). For a few weeks, we were stuck in the Greek Equilibrium, let’s call it, and now we’ve escaped.
I came into the morning relatively light, and my bias toward energy and precious metals shorts is taking a lot of the sting away (MWE notwithstanding, which I was short, and which gapped higher). I intend to start re-entering good positions now, though, and increasing my risk in the face of this capitulation.
Can we all agree to stop talking about this idiotic Mediterranean country until they actually default for real in a few months? Thanks.
During our brief get-together yesterday, BDI and I puzzled over how the European Union could be so dumb as to hand tens of billions of Euros more to Greece who has obviously got, shall we say, a credibility problem. It seems they aren’t nearly so gullible as I might have assumed, as the headlines on ZH reveal: