Over the past ten months, in steps almost too small to be noticed by the mass media, Apple has shed over two hundred billion dollars in value. That’s nearly one quarter of a trillion dollars in wealth which would have fed shareholder dreams of new houses, new boats, new jewelry, and mink coats, but……….it’s gone.
The thing is, I think the slide is far, far from over. I wrote a piece earlier this year (which got picked up by some of the mainstream press) predicting that Apple would fall to the mid-70s. We’re already heading into the low 90s, so my goofy prediction is seeming a little less insane.
It’s time for me to travel to the place I always prefer: way out on a limb.
My Apple credentials are sound. I bought my first Macintosh in early 1984. I worked at Apple headquarters for several years in the late 1980s. When did I buy my first iPhone? The day it came out. First iPad? The day it came out. I even wrote a few books about the Macintosh. And some of you know the videos I’ve done about that Silicon Valley deity, Mr. Steven Paul Jobs. So I don’t have any anti-Apple ax to grind.
Springheel Jack and I have a couple of things in common with our posts today: first, like him, I want to apologize for being so late. I’ve been very “out of it” today dealing with my totally unexpected new family additions. Second, judging from what Jack said in his post, we both had a “dog” issue stalling us.
Before I forget, a big shout out to Jack for his AMAZING call last year, when he shorted the ES at almost the exact top. From what I gather, he covered today for something like 300 handles on the ES. Good gravy, Jack, congratulations! That is totally amazing!
Preface: Slope has historically been a very visual piece of work. Oftentimes a post of mine will be nothing more than a chart without a single word. This post is going to be quite different, because I have a lot to say. Read it, though, since there might be some useful morsels in here for you.
I’ve had nine dogs in my life, and none of them have been inclined to chase cars (well, except maybe for my little Cotons, who chased the UPS truck yesterday, since it’s always dropping off annoying packages). From time to time I’ll read the musing that dogs do, in fact, chase cars, but they wouldn’t know what to do with one if they actually managed to catch it.
I feel a bit like that right now. For six miserable years, I was fighting a bull market. In my naivete, I failed to grasp that scumbags like Bernanke would actually be willing to doom this country to countless trillions in debt just so his Wall Street buddies could re-establish their fortunes. I guess I’m just not cynical enough. But in spite of all the good reasons that The Market Should Start Falling Here, it never took place, and bears like me got run over, battered, beaten, and consistently disappointed.
I see that Dennis is front-and-center on ZeroHedge this morning, so I thought I’d offer up these thoughts: we all have opinions on the stock market. However, very few of us have daughters that are Senior Line Producers (whatever that means) on CNBC, thus we cannot share our musings with the rest of the world. Happily, there is one Dennis Gartman who is blessed with just such a situation, and he appears on CNBC with more frequency than even the great Janet Yellen (plus he hasn’t fainted on camera yet, not even once).
Mr. Gartman’s pontifications, however, can at times be opaque and thus hard to interpret, so I would like to offer this easy-to-use grid to help you tease out precisely where the man stands. The quadrant is comprised of two simple binary facts:
Horrible Colorful Tie or Open Collar? – Dennis likes to mix up the wardrobe. Sometimes he goes footloose and fancy-free, doffing the tie and leaving the top shirt button joyously undone. At other times, he steps up his game and goes for the All Business look, donning a tie which contains colors rarely found in the natural world. (more…)