My fear for the future of the human race is grounded in two contrasting but related facts: (1) I am supposed to be extremely intelligent (2) I consider myself an idiot. In other words, if, based upon hard data from tests, the vast majority of people are less intelligent than me, yet if I consider myself just barely able to function and be a responsible member of society, where on earth are we all heading? I mean, come on – – I suck – – but most people suck even worse.
It wasn’t long ago that this wouldn’t have mattered at all. At any given point in human history, you could have created a bell curve of intelligence among all living humans. And yet how much has it truly mattered until recently?
In the year 1100, if you were far and away the most brilliant person in your entire village, would it have helped you at all? Would anyone have cared? Of course not! Because you just need to shovel the pig shit into a pile just like everyone else. Intellect was irrelevant. (more…)
I had a recent experience with Slopecharts that I wanted to share, since it is illustrative of how some very simple functions built into the program can produce powerful results.
I have a watch list called ETFs which contains 80 symbols of popular ETF symbols like SPY, TLT, QQQ, and so forth. Because these instruments have been so important to my trading, I wondered to myself if there were other interesting symbols that I wasn’t yet following.
One Google search later, I was on a page that had the biggest 100 funds, and I simply copied this table text and pasted it into Excel.
US Stock Market
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).
But today the bliss is wearing off as the average person did not need to wait for his monthly statement to see that something went wrong with the up-melting market that was printing him money every month. Here is a look at the Google Trend for the search term “stock market crash”. Per Google’s computation method, the reading cannot go higher than 100. (more…)
I’m typing this late Friday night in the cool night air outside of a closed Starbucks. I never thought I’d appreciate a weekend as much as this one. No GLOBEX quotes. No government shutdown. No nothing. Just peace and quiet.
Let’s take a step back after this insane week and just drink in the basics of the ES activity for the past couple of months, which I have broken down into four simple tints:
There are plenty of things I like about a market like the one we are in right now, which is one of unchecked pandemonium.
There’s the profits, of course. It’s really gratifying to see my assets grow so swiftly.
The vindication of being right feels good, naturally. Having virtually every single prediction unfold as reality so swiftly is like a tall drink of water in the desert compared to the past nine years. I have 73 different short positions, and every last one of them is in the green (some of them massively so).
And since my trading life is tied directly to my little business, I get “icing on the cake” by having subscriptions to Slope PLUS go roaring higher.
In the soundtrack of my life, I’ve had songs from Hamilton occur with increasing frequency. One particular piece, Wait For It, resonates most clearly where I feel I am in my trading life. Specifically:
Death doesn’t discriminate
Between the sinners
And the saints
It takes and it takes and it takes
And we keep living anyway
We rise and we fall
And we break
And we make our mistakes
And if there’s a reason I’m still alive
When everyone who loves me has died
I’m willing to wait for it
I am the one thing in life I can control
I am inimitable
I am an original
I’m not falling behind or running late
I’m not standing still
I am lying in wait