Good morning, Slopers. Let’s do a bit of odds and ends from top-of-mind:
- NEW RECORD in usage for SlopeCharts. I seriously don’t know why anyone would use anything else. It is all I ever use. Ever. And it’s getting better all the time. We added some cool new features this weekend, but, ummm, current events have precluded from me announcing them.
- I woke up about every two hours last night. At one point, both ES and NQ were green, so I figured some dumb-ass announcement had been made. They’re quite red again, so I guess not.
- I haven’t mentioned it yet, but yesterday I bought puts again the EUR/USD. It’s a nice, clean trade and away from the madcap insanity we’re witnessing in equities.
- I have mentioned repeatedly, especially on tastytrade, how my target price for a Bitcoin low (for now, at least) would be $6,000. NAILED IT! So do I get to wear a fuzzy wig now?
- The VIX was at an 8-handle a month ago. Now it’s around 50, for the first time since the glorious days of early 2009. Can you freaking BELIEVE it? And the hydrogen bomb that’s been dropping on VIX shorts has been just astounding to watch. Historic!
Probably the key thing I have to say is this, and mark my words: the Republicans are going to get completely destroyed in the mid-terms. Yeah, I know the election is nine months away, and I know a lot can happen in nine months. But this nine-year bull market is DEAD, and that will still be evident by November.
Just Trust your friend Tim. The Trump revolution is over. And I say this not from a partisan standpoint, because I really couldn’t care less who won in 2016. Both of them sucked.
You think I’d be happy.
After all, days like Friday and Monday come along, oh, just about never. We have, in almost no time., seen bullish hubris hit with a flamethrower (perhaps even supplied by Mr. Musk). We have seen our smug bull friends have their accounts decimated (quite literally). And as for the White House, not only has it stopped tweeting about market highs, it issued some lame-ass little statement about how the fundamental economy was still strong and everything was going to be just peachy. Don’t you worry your fuzzy little heads.
All the same, I feel kind of lousy. it comes from three places, I suppose. (more…)
I am a big movie buff (some of you may remember I’ve even written a screenplay – – so, umm, any movie producers out there, drop me a line). When I love a movie, I’ll watch it a dozen times or more. Here on Slope, we’ve had some lively discussions about great movies, but one of the classics I never got around to watching was The Shawshank Redemption, even though it is consistently near the top of any list of great films.
Today I watched it, and I enjoyed it. I now understand why people like it so much. However, I was struck by the similarities between the movie and one of my favorites from my childhood, Escape From Alcatraz, which came out about fifteen years before Shawshank.
I’m going to start with a tale from about 180 years ago. In the early 1840s, a religious leader named William Miller believed the second coming of Jesus was foretold in the Bible with mathematical accuracy, and using a myriad of verses and tidbits from the Bible, he sought to compute as closely as possible when exactly J.C. was going to come back.
At first, he didn’t offer anything very exact:
Using an interpretive principle known as the day-year principle, Miller, along with others, interpreted a prophetic “day” to read not as a 24-hour period, but rather as a calendar year. Miller became convinced that the 2,300-day period started in 457 B.C. with the decree to rebuild Jerusalem by Artaxerxes I of Persia. His interpretation led him to believe and promote the year 1843. Despite the urging of his supporters, Miller never announced an exact date for the expected Second Advent. But he did narrow the time period to sometime in the Jewish year 5604, stating: “My principles in brief, are, that Jesus Christ will come again to this earth, cleanse, purify, and take possession of the same, with all the saints, sometime between March 21, 1843 and March 21, 1844.” (more…)
I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme.
I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR). We’ll see on that, because the GSR has been a dysfunctional indicator for so long now.* USD & Euro may yet be the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse to help bring on the pain after the happy go lucky goofballs above finish up. (more…)
Back on the 21st, I wrote an extremely brief book review about Sapiens. “Review” is probably too highfalutin a word, though, since I did little more than paste a few paragraphs from the Amazon site and wrote that I really enjoyed the book. I wanted to say something meaningful, but I was being lazy and just tossed it out there as a post to close the day.
However, Strawberry Blonde made this comment (I think she has ESP):
Slope, as you might suppose, is my favorite blog on the web. My second favorite, however, is ZeroHedge, and I’ve been an avid and daily reader for its entire existence.
Because ZH has been steadfastly bearish since its creation in January 2009 (which, interestingly, was pretty much the exact almost-to-the-day bottom of equities in general), the standard bromide out there is: “The bear market won’t start until ZeroHedge shuts down.”
Well, look, that’s NEVER going to happen. It’s far too successful a site. I obviously have no clue what their financials are, but they’ve got to be making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year (at least) on ad revenue, so they’re not just going to turn the switch off. (more…)