Category Archives: Indicators

Gold vs. Commodities

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The signals of gold vs. other assets and markets have become so important to financial markets over the last year (hello Macrocosm, July 27 2015) that I have created a standard segment in NFTRH called ‘Gold vs.‘.  The segment regularly checks up on gold vs. stock markets, currencies, bonds and of course, commodities.

Here is the state of the latter.  After the chart I’ll summarize some of the market signals.

au.crb

  • Au-CRB is in a long-term uptrend.  This uptrend has been in place since late 2014, when not coincidentally, volatile market disturbances started to erupt.  The uptrend is in place, indicating a generally counter cyclical global atmosphere.  If gold breaks down vs. cyclical CRB the ‘inflation’ play would drive hot money out to other areas beyond gold mining.  If not, the favored gold mining fundamental backdrop will have held up.

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Follow The Yellow Brick Road

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I never managed to get a post out yesterday in the end as I was preparing for my vacation so I’m doing an early post today before I go using charts I did last night for Basic Chart Service subscribers at theartofchart.net.

SPX inched a little higher yesterday and a possible strong RSI5_NYMO daily sell signal is now brewing. SPX may go a little higher but not much I suspect, and I am expecting that sell signal to fix within a couple of days. After it does I’m expecting a retracement to at minimum test the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 2111, and likely lower. SPX daily chart:

160720C SPX Daily

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Straining at Gnats

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It has been very dull in the afternoon recently, and sometimes not a lot more interesting in the morning. SPX has been stalled for three days now and a possible double top has formed. It’s very small, and after the great leap upward from 1991, one would think that a retracement of slightly over 1% would be easily accomplished, but it seems that SPX is paralysed into a retracement that so far has been only in time.

If a surviving bear can be located, then an hourly close below double top support at 2155.79, and the 50 hour MA in the same area, then the pattern target would be in the 2142.50 area. First support on a daily close basis is at the 5dma, currently in the 2160 area. SPX daily chart:

160719 SPX Daily 5dma

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More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Market Internals

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NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes. One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market (possibly pending new rally highs) and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market. We reproduce part of that segment here…

More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Market Internals

Ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? (July 12)

Subscriber ‘LN’ presented a view of the impending ‘breadth thrust’ signal and we both came to the same conclusion; that this is ending action in the stock market. It is at once very bullish and very bearish, depending on time frames. Below is additional information per ‘LN’, who is a financial adviser and thus, not a casual observer. I would also note that both ‘LN’ and I have similar caveats about analogs from the past projecting to the future (they often do not do it well). But for reference (emphasis mine)…

“I went back and looked at 1987 a little closer. I know the price action isn’t going to be identical but I wanted to see if they rhyme at all. (more…)

Is The Dow Theory Dead, Or Is It Different This Time?

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With the Dow Jones Industrial Average making new all-time-never-before-seen-highs, I thought a look at the Dow Theory as an acid test for the validity of the rally might be worthwhile.

For a brief bit of background, I’m going to paste a few lines from Wikipedia for those that aren’t familiar with Charles Dow or the Dow Theory as it’s known today:

The Dow theory on stock price movement is a form of technical analysis that includes some aspects of sector rotation. The theory was derived from 255 Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow (1851-1902), journalist, founder and first editor of The Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. Following Dow’s death, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea and E. George Schaefer organized and collectively represented Dow theory, based on Dow’s editorials. Dow himself never used the term Dow theory nor presented it as a trading system.

The Dow Theory can be boiled down to six basic points on stock market movements, each of which is summarized nicely on the Wikipedia page linked above.  I’m going to focus on two of the points specifically for this post:

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Milestones

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SPX and NDX showed the first significant signs of weakness in a couple of weeks on Friday, with breaks below the support trendlines on decently formed rising wedges from the late June lows. Decent quality 60min RSI 14 sell signals have fixed on both SPX and NDX and that’s promising to deliver some retracement soon, though the swing high may not be in, and I’m still waiting for RUT to join the other two with a trendline support break and negative RSI divergence.

Nonetheless, I think all three indices are likely in a short term topping process here, and am looking for topping patterns to form for a decent retracement of 3% or more starting in the next few days. I’m expecting that to be a dip to buy. SPX 60min chart:

160717 SPX 60min

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