On November 26th, I posted an article which outlined a hypothetical scenario of the S&P 500 Index reaching 2700 by the next U.S. Presidential election in November 2020.
I realize that this is only one of many possibilities that lie ahead for the SPX. However, given the aggressive economic, tax and fiscal agenda that President-elect Trump is currently promoting, it could, very well, materialize without too much resistance.
You may recall my previous post after the initiation stage of the Trump Rally here which was about a week after the election. I shared the likelihood for forward trade was in a flat to up trend, but that there was a lesser chance of a large drawdown if price did reverse. I have a little more context to it now so I thought I might show you what I’ve found.
As can be seen on the following Daily chart of the World Market Index, price has fallen below both the 50 and 200 MAs and is, once again, nearing a critical major support level of 1600.
Even though price is trading under the bullish influences of a moving average Golden Cross, all three technical indicators are hinting of further weakness to come.
Watch for a bullish cross-over of the MACD and PMO indicators, as well as a price reversal and bounce, break and hold, firstly, above 1700, then above 1750, as a potential signal of clear support of higher prices for world equities, in the longer term, including that of the SPX. Conversely, a break and hold below 1600 could very well forecast a large downdraft for all world equities in the near term.
We have been talking about how bullish the US stock market is. It has been bullish uninterrupted for most of 2016 and that includes the Brexit buying opportunity. We then expected and got a test of major support. Now, with the Trump whipsaw and reversal we have the 2nd thrust in breadth and breakout, after Brexit. Here’s the broad market view we keep tabs on. It never went bearish. All it did was test support across various indexes.
The SPX high this morning was 0.09 handles under the ATH, so I’m treating the bull flag target at that retest as made. That’s the good news for bulls and it may well be the high point of the week on SPX and RUT, though NDX is looking toppy here too, though less obviously testing serious resistance at the high this morning.
The 60min charts on all three are leaning towards seeing some well overdue retracement starting in this area, and if seen that may well dominate the rest of the week. There is also a possible RSI5 / NYMO sell signal brewing here on the SPX daily chart, which I’m watching with interest. SPX daily chart:
My apologies for such a long post, but I have a lot to say…
This post will look at where “outliers” are sitting in a variety of world markets, as of the close of the week that saw Donald Trump win the race for U.S. President (those instruments sitting at relatively high or low price levels compared with their respective counterparts and in relation to major support/resistance levels).
They will be shown on the following 1-year Daily charts, Year-to-date gains/losses comparison graphs, and several 5-Year Ratio charts, and will be grouped in the following 10 categories:
- Major U.S. Indices
- 9 Major Sectors + Homebuilders
- Major European Indices
- Emerging Market & BRIC ETFs + BRIC Indices
- Canada, Japan, UK, Australia + World Market Index
- Commodities + US $ + US Bonds
- Major Currencies
- SPX vs World Market Index
- Financial ETFs vs U.S., European & Chinese Major Indices
- Retail ETF vs SPX
Well, I know I’m not the only one who is glad the election is over. Truth be told, as glad as I am to see price moving around again after this summer’s lethargy, I have my fingers crossed that volatility dials it back a little from here because it’s a bit too much for me. BUT, after just one week, conditions have changed considerably so a quick review is in order.
Coming into Election Day, there was a significant amount of hedging going into the uncertainty of Nov 8th was evident by the high SKEW readings and Equity Put/Call ratios. Since then, the SKEW has returned to mid-levels and Equity Put/Call is not far behind.