Category Archives: Indicators

Some More Retracement Coming …… Probably

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Obviously the bears have had serious issues achieving anything recently, and yet again today they have delivered their signature matching lows at the current lows of the day, but there is a decent chance that there is at least some more retracement coming in the next day or two, with all of the hourly charts on SPX, NDX and RUT currently on RSI 14 sell signals. I’m not expecting anything impressive, and the structure here is suggesting that will be at least one more leg up after that, so if seen this larger retracement should be a dip buying opportunity into new all time highs on SPX and NDX, and possibly on RUT as well. (more…)

Third Down…One To Go: 2017 Q4 Looms for U.S. Equities

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The following charts and graphs present a simplified birds-eye view of how the S&P 500 Index, and its volatility, performed in Q3 of 2017, as well as year-to-date.

But, first, a look at the Major Indices and 9 Major Sectors and how they have fared year-to-date and during Q3

MAJOR INDICES

Eight of the nine Major Indices, namely, the Dow 30, Dow Transports, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, S&P 100, and Nasdaq Transportation Indices closed out Q3 at or near all-time highs, as shown on the following 1-Year Daily charts. (more…)

He Went Galumphing Back

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As far as I’m aware the only nonsense word from Lewis Carroll’s Jabberwocky to make it into general usage was ‘galumphing’ a wonderful word evoking something large and ungainly achieving speed without grace. Still a favorite word of mine, though not one I get a chance to use often.

NDX has reversed back up on a setup I show on the NQ daily chart below, and the obvious read is that NDX is galumphing back to a retest of the all time high, though NDX still looks heavy and might fail to deliver on that.

In the meantime SPX delivered a higher high and the possible daily RSI 5 / NYMO buy signal that I was hoping to see start brewing on a higher high is now brewing, and should fix as an when this move up tops out. SPX daily chart: (more…)

Ribbons of Complacency

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One of my favorite studies is one that isn’t seen much, and it’s called a ribbon study. It’s the application of a large quantity of moving averages (sixteen, I think) that are relatively close in periodicity, thus forming a ribbon-like structure around price that twists and turns. It tends to get denser (and darker) at inflection points (or at least points of inactivity).

I applied it to the VIX, as shown below, hiding the price data itself and showing only the study. I’m not going to pretend any great insight leapt out of this chart, but maybe it will for you. If nothing else, it’s real purty.

0925-vix

And, As In Uffish Thought I Stood

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The swing high may be in, and price has a couple of decisions to make early this week to show us whether that is now the case. All charts were done either yesterday (RTH charts) or before the open this morning (futures charts) for subscribers at theartofchart.net.

SPX is on an hourly RSI 14 sell signal, and short term rising wedge support was tested twice and held as support on Friday. That has broken this morning, and subject to any short term topping process the next big trendline target is larger rising wedge support, currently in the 2455 area. SPX 60min chart:

170924 SPX 60min

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So Rested He By The TumTum Tree

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Stan and I are doing the first of two ‘Trading Toolbox’ free educational webinars an hour after the close today at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of bollinger bands in day and swing trading. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.

After an interesting start this morning ES settled down into the comatose tape that has been characteristic of afternoons recently. The morning was definitely interesting though, with the ES rising wedge support that was tested perfectly at the low yesterday breaking this morning. That hasn’t followed through yet, but may follow through soon, ideally after just one more all time high retest. ES Dec 60min chart:

170921 Lunch 1-EQI ES Dec 60min

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