Category Archives: Indicators

Looking For Some Retracement Here

By -

NDX has made it over halfway from the break of the flag to the retest of the all time high, and I am treating that retest as the 70% likelihood option here. On the way though there is a lot of short term negative divergence that will likely deliver a retracement, maybe today but otherwise tomorrow. On NDX that may well require a retest of the short term high first. NDX 60min chart:

170717 NDX 60min

(more…)

A Tale Of Two Bull Flags

By -

SPX and NDX both delivered breakaway gaps up on Wednesday that were not filled. Both of the possible bull flags that I was looking at on SPX/ES and NDX/NQ as the lower probability alternate on Wednesday morning broke up, and SPX and ES have made the minimum bull flag targets at the full retests of their all time highs this morning. So what now?

This is a smaller but still significant inflection point here at the marginal new all time high on SPX/ES. The possible SPX daily RSI 5 buy signal that I was looking at on Wednesday morning fixed and has made target, and it’s possible that SPX / ES will make marginal new highs here in the second highs of double tops. If so, ideally, there would be a pullback in this area and then marginal higher highs to set up a daily RSI 5 sell signal on SPX.

(more…)

Breaking Down Is Hard To Do

By -

Another week, another inflection point on indices, and after eleven days of compression we are likely to see a resolution up or down today and whichever way this resolves is likely to deliver a daily upper or lower band ride in the direction of the break. Today is a cycle trend day and the odds of seeing a full trend day in either direction are unusually high. We’ll see how that goes. The setup favors downside resolution, but the day is starting with a spirited attempt at a break up. We’ll see whether that lasts.

I’ll start with NDX here as Nasdaq is still driving the equities bus, and on NDX there is a possible H&S right shoulder forming here that is currently overshooting the ideal right shoulder high, but not to an extent that weakens the setup. There is an alternate read that a bull flag forming wedge is forming here, and if that wedge resistance currently in the 5800 area is tested from here then that option becomes a lot more likely. If that bull flag wedge was then to break up the minimum target would be an all time high retest on NDX. NDX 60min chart: (more…)

SPX: Q2 2017 Market Wrap-Up

By -

Each candle represents a period of one year on the following Yearly chart of the SPX.

So far, this year’s candle is a bit less than half of 2016’s trading range and the Momentum indicator is almost as high as it was in 2014 (this year’s trading range is about 60% as high as 2014’s).

What this tells me is that, on an annual basis, 2017 is fairly strong at this point and could perform well in the latter half of the year.

(more…)