I remember seeing the very talented satirist Tom Lehrer on his last world tour in the 1980s, ‘The Poisoning Pigeons In The Park’ tour. Today’s title is a small homage to one of my favorites in his repertoire, as well as a note that as and when equities are ready for the next leg down, all the main equity indices, and very possibly oil, are likely to participate. If you’d like to see the title song for this post you can see that here.
When that be? As soon as we see a break and conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2703/4. I’m leaning towards to seeing a retest of Friday’s high before we see that happen. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrend. Now the ratio is bouncing with the market relief that is so predictably taking hold (here’s a public post where we effectively called bullish, in-day on that Friday). (more…)
I have a question for my beloved readers today and I’m hoping one of you has a good answer. I’ve teamed up with an options expert friend to run a directional options portfolio based main on futures options for the last three months, and we’ve been recording the (very impressive so far) trades and results on a spreadsheet. We’d like to move this onto a professional web based alternative that we can publish from. The setup needs to work with futures options, auto-update the options prices, and not be restricted to basic options strategies etc. Do any of you know a good way to do this? The winning reply gets three months free membership if we later launch this as a paid service, which is where this is probably heading.
Onto the equity indices. I was mentioning yesterday that the daily middle band on SPX would be an ideal target for this rally and that has been tested on both SPX and ES this morning. Some rejection there so far and it’s possible that the rally high is in, though I’m sceptical about seeing a lot of downside in what remains of today, on an opex Friday, going into a three day weekend, so we’ll see. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Here’s the daily middle band test on SPX. Possible hourly RSI 5 sell signals are brewing on both SPX and RUT and one has fixed on NDX. Everyone have a great holiday weekend. SPX daily chart:
A couple of announcements today. Firstly tonight’s webinar at theartofchart.net has been delayed a week due to an unavoidable conflict, and will now be held on the same night as our Big Five & Sectors webinar on Thursday next week. You can register for either or both on our February Free Webinars page.
The second announcement is that Stan and I are finally starting serious work on writing a book on TA and trading futures. We have an outline and a publisher and will be trying to finish that this year, so watch this space
The hourly RSI 14 buy signals on NDX and RUT have reached target, and the SPX signal has reached the possible near miss target. There is hourly negative divergence here, and all three indices are in the ideal rally high zone, we are expecting a rally high high soon and tomorrow is a possible cycle trend day on which we could see a significant decline. Discussed in detail on my intraday video below.
This is the whole intraday video covering nineteen futures and forex charts, as I haven’t posted one of these in a couple of weeks, and if you are just interested in the equity indices they are at the start and there is also a possible very speculative equities decline scenario that I look at in the bonds/ZB section starting in the ninth minute. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
There has been a remarkable similarity on the patterns from last Friday’s low on all of ES, NQ and TF, with rising wedges forming, then breaking down. I was expecting consolidation to establish less steep support trendlines and in a remarkable convergence all three of those initial rising wedges evolved into perfect rising channel with the channel support trendlines established at the premarket spike down lows this morning. Will these make it back to channel resistance? Maybe yes, I look at options in the video below. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
Price on the High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (HYG) has weakened further since my late-January post.
It’s now trading in between major resistance and support levels of 86.00 and 83.00, respectively, as shown on the following weekly comparison chart of HYG and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). Volumes spiked to record highs on last week’s decline and the momentum indicator has fallen below the zero level, hinting of further weakness ahead on this timeframe.
As mentioned in my 2018 Market Forecast, I think that volatility will remain elevated for much of 2018 (although to what extent will, no doubt, vary) in this evolving environment where Central Bankers are tightening monetary stimulus measures they deployed after the 2008/09 financial crisis.
As I posted in early February, near-term major support on the SPX lies somewhere in between 2525 and 2485. The upper edge of that zone was almost hit on Friday as it reached 2532, before snapping back to close the day higher.
The following daily comparison chart shows that 10-YR rates have held near their recent highs during the recent correction of the SPX. Whether rates continue to hold or push higher on any recovery in equities, and whether that may materially impact the extent of such a recovery, remains to be seen. As long as 10-YRT remains above, firstly, 2.67% and, ultimately, 2.5%, then equities will remain vulnerable to more wild swings and weakness. (more…)