According to the following 4-Hour charts of the YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD, we’ll need to see big sustained volumes enter to push and hold these markets over their resistance levels (on the YM, TF & NKD) and keep them above their resistance levels (on the ES & NQ). (more…)
Another day of consolidation yesterday with two more tests of key short term support at the SPX 50 hour MA. On the second test there were significant intra-hour pinocchios below it which was new, but the hours closed safely back above. The pattern setup on the SPX 60min leans bearish but could still go either way this morning. The triangle I was looking at yesterday morning broke up and was then retesting hard at the close. For today I would expect that either to break up to a marginal new high, or break down to test the triangle target and possible H&S or double-top neckline at 1824/5. The RSI and trendline setup are leaning towards the bear outcome, and I have mentioned many times before that triangles have a very tendency to make a false break before the real move begins in the opposite direction. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)
SPX made a strong move into new all-time high yesterday at 1858.71 and then came off that high in the afternoon. So now what?
On 10th February I wrote that the next target from the bullish hammer on the weekly chart would be a test of the weekly upper bollinger band. That was at 1888 at the time and had fallen to 1866 at the close yesterday. Yesterday’s high was close enough to qualify as a technical hit or very near miss, though we may well see a more exact hit shortly, particularly with the SPX daily upper bollinger band now at 1866 as well. I’m going to be treating that target as possibly made now. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.
I was saying yesterday morning that an hourly close much over the ES 50 hour MA at 1830.5 would suggest a retest of the highs, and well here we are. There are two options here and the first, and my preferred option, is that we are going to see the second high of a short term double-top made here. The second is that after a very minimalist retracement we are starting a new move up. (more…)