Category Archives: Indicators

The Flagging Dow Industrials

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Only three charts today as I’ve had a lot on this morning.

One reason I do my optic run views on my seven main US equity indices is because while SPX is often the technical leader, by which I mean not that it moves fastest, but that it is delivering the cleanest trendlines/patterns and fibonacci retracements, that is not always the case. That leader at the moment is the Dow Industrials, and my first two charts will illustrate why that is.

The rising wedge on SPX that I tweeted on Tuesday night hit the very well defined wedge resistance (tweeted at the high yesterday) and then broke down on the frankly very predictable not really news that QE3 had ended in October as planned, and the usual assurances that the Fed would be fighting hard to keep interest rates near zero until the stars fall from the sky. Now those of you who have been looking at my work closely for a while might have wondered why I was giving strong weight to a pattern on SPX that was mediocre due to the poorly defined support trendline, and the answer to that question is of course that ………. SPX 15min chart: (more…)

SPX:VIX RATIO — The REAL Test for Bulls

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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of October 15th.

As shown on the 20-Year Daily ratio chart below, bulls have pushed the price back up to close out this week at major resistance around the 120.00 level. Failure to hold 120.00 could very well see price re-test the 60.00 level, or lower…watch for panic selling of equities should the 60.00 level be breached and held.

The REAL test for sustained market bullishness will be whether price can reclaim and hold the 150.00 level, which was a milestone level this ratio reached before succumbing to pressures of the 2007/08 financial crisis.