Category Archives: Indicators

SPX:VIX Ratio: The Next Hurdle

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170 is the next major resistance level to be overcome on the following Daily ratio chart of the SPX:VIX. This appears to be “make or break” time for SPX Bulls. 180 and 192 represent the next and final major hurdles (set in 2014) that will need to be overcome before Bulls can comfortably feel that volatility has been quashed while (if) the SPX resumes any kind of sustainable uptrend.

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ES Short

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It looks like it is time to go SHORT E-mini S&P500 Futures…

Our PRICE EXTENSION ANALYSIS model below shows how far a price retracement (uptrend) can go on each time period, based on the statistical analysis of all the historical retracement patterns that share similarities with the current retracement pattern.

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E-mini S&P500 Market Analysis

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Chart Analysis

One week ago we have outlined two possible scenarios, after the positive WEEKLY Close:

1) start of a new WEEKLY leg up

2) small bounce before another WEEKLY leg down

Looking at last week’s Close, it seems scenario 1) came true. The ESM15 WEEKLY chart below shows it quite clearly: a big green candle rocketing up >50 points from the latest lows/support area in the ~2040s.

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E-mini S&P500 Market Analysis

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Chart Analysis

Yesterday the ESM15 market closed down again. The ESM15 DAILY chart below shows the support and resistance levels discussed in the LONG and SHORT sections below.

As you can see there is more room to go up than down, before reaching DAILY levels that will offer some meaningful opposition to a continued advance. This means that in theory the path is clear to go up, and combined with the fact that today is (at the moment of writing) the third day down in a row, a bounce is becoming more and more possible as we will see in the TO GO LONG section below.

TO GO LONG

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Forecasting the S&P 500…My Dumb Luck?

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My post of April 5, 2014 refers.

The following Daily chart of the ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index) shows what happened from that date up to the present. The ensuing swings overshot my projected targets a bit, and it took a bit longer for the “FROTH” level around 2100 to be reached, but price action generally followed the path that I forecast a year ago…price has been consolidating, basically, below that level since December 2014. Additionally, volatility did become the “name of the game” over those weeks and months, as I had anticipated.

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