Stan and I are doing a free public webinar 30 minutes after the close tonight entitled ‘Turn Around Your Trading Part 3’ on turning TA into profitable trades. If you’d like to attend you can register for that on our April Free Webinars page. Stan and Suz will be following that with another webinar on option premium capture, and registration for that is on the same page.
SPX broke back under the daily middle band on SPX on Tuesday, and confirmed the break below at the close yesterday. If SPX breaks back above the daily middle band today, as seems likely at the time of writing, then that will need a confirming close back above tomorrow.
I posted the key declining resistance levels on SPX and ES on my twitter this morning and they were in the 2662 and 2670 areas respectively. The break above today opens a possible retest of last week’s highs and maybe higher. (more…)
There is a very strong rally setup coming into today, so I’ve decided to do an AM post this time, with the video below being the section on indices from my premarket video this morning.
The rally setup is the breaks up from bull flags on SPX, NDX and RUT yesterday afternoon and this morning, and the double bottom on SPX that needs to break and convert double bottom resistance at 2683 to fix a double bottom target in the 2705-8 area. If that delivers then all three have a decent shot at a retest of last week’s rally highs. Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Well SPX has finally retraced over the last couple of days, and the bull/bear line that I’m talking about on the video is rising support from the April low. That was tested as expected not long after I recorded the video and that’s holding so far. On a break below this rally has likely ended unexpectedly early. If it holds then SPX should do another leg up into the 2730s and triangle resistance there. I’m leaning towards another leg up unless that trendline support breaks. We shall see. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
The following 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shows intraday support and resistance levels at 2650 and 2700, respectively.
The momentum and relative volatility index technical indicators have plunged on today’s action, so far (as at 1:15 pm ET, Thursday April 19), and price has fallen back into the lower 1/4 of the uptrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel…all of which are suggesting that the latest attempted rally that began on April 2 is pretty weak, but the pullbacks that have occurred since then have been tight and shallow.
However, the level of volatility and momentum in today’s intraday action may indicate that this may end soon and that today will mark a pivot point of some kind. Either we’ll see price break free of this tight trading action and spike to 2700, or we’ll see price plunge down to 2650, with a continued breakout in either direction. (more…)
I was saying last week that a fill of the open gap from 2711.93, I’d be disregarding the Three Day Rule target (a retest of 2553.80). The Three Day Rule target technically hasn’t failed yet, but the first downside scenario is likely failing, and we are now left with the remaining two scenarios.
The secondary scenario is that a large triangle is forming here, and that SPX is heading towards triangle resistance, currently in the 2745 area. As triangles are to an extent a ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ card for pattern targets, on a fail there we would likely still reach the Three Day Rule target, and I’d add this to the other two exceptions when the rule triggered while a triangle was forming.
If we do see this scenario develop then as SPX moves to triangle resistance NDX and RUT may reach their IHS targets in the 6945 and 1608 areas respectively. (more…)
Last night’s joint US/British/French military operation in Syria is over and no amount of arguments for/against it will change that fact.
Prior to that and as at Friday’s close, the US Major Indices were still mired inside their respective consolidation zones near their 50-day MA, as shown on the following 1-year and 2-month daily charts.
SO, HOW WILL MARKETS REACT?
In the short term, watch for any 20 MA crossover (and hold) above the 50 MA on any market rally next week and beyond, as one signal of potential sustainable equity strength in the weeks ahead. (more…)
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on the Big Five and Sectors after the close tonight and we’ll be looking at AMZN, AAPL, FB, NFLX, TSLA, IBB, IYR, XLE, XLF, XLK and XRT. If you’d like to attend you can register for that on our April Free Webinars page. We are also of course doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday and you can register for that on the same page.
The possible triangle resistance on SPX broke and ES and SPX have both broken their respective IHS trendlines at the highs today, so all of ES/SPX, NQ/NDX and TF/RUT have now broken up from their IHS necklines. This is the inflection point I was looking at in Chart Chat on Sunday and if this is going to be a Janus bear flag reversal, then I’d expect a failure here or not too much higher. If the IHSes are for real then the respective targets on SPX/NDX and RUT would be in the 2792, 6920 and 108 areas respectively. I’ll be taking the bull targets seriously if SPX reaches 2712. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)