You can see at a glance, from the chart grid below, which of the Dow 30 stocks are outperforming (AAPL, AXP, BA, CAT, JPM, KO, MCD, MSFT, NKE, TRV, UNH, V and WMT) and which ones are underperforming (GE, IBM and XOM).
We’ll see if the laggards (and ones not mentioned above) turn around anytime soon to continue to drive the Dow to new highs, as I mentioned in yesterday’s post, or whether the leaders suddenly weaken…and, if so, with what force.
It has been a dull summer week, and of SPX, NDX and RUT, only RUT has managed a lower low this week. RUT has now made it, albeit rather lethargically, almost back to channel resistance, now in the 1416 area, and I’ve noted that this may be the right shoulder of an H&S pattern forming. RUT 60min chart:
My post of January 25th on the Dow 30 Index mentioned that price had reached 20,000, in spite of negative rhetoric from media pundits and some investors about an imminent implosion of markets under President Trump’s economic agenda in the months leading up to the presidential election and to that date.
Yesterday, the Dow 30 broke and closed above 22,000 for the first time, setting another all-time record high. As you can see from the Monthly chart below, price has now hit the top of a long-term uptrending channel from the 2009 lows. So far, markets seem unfazed by the ongoing political gridlock and machinations in Washington. (more…)
It has been a narrow range week on SPX, and for me the obvious read is that a triangle is forming on SPX/ES, with another possible triangle forming on NDX/NQ, and RUT/TF ploughing an independent furrow. I show the possible triangles on the ES and NQ charts below, though I’d note that Stan is not regarding these as high quality triangles.
RUT made the double top target at 1410 while SPX and NDX have been trading sideways. I’d note though the clear falling channels now established on both RUT and TF, and that buy signals are brewing on the hourly chart while the next obvious target within the falling channel is channel resistance, currently in the 1420/1 area. RUT 60min chart: (more…)
Just a quick update before I head out to dinner.
The first trading day of the month generally leans strongly bullish, but as I mentioned on twitter last night, that’s not the case in August, closing green about 33% historically and with SPX closing down five of the last six.
ES has been trading mainly above the weekly pivot so far this week, but hasn’t yet convincingly converted that to support yet. NQ and TF spent most of yesterday and all of today under their weekly pivots, and if ES/SPX retests the all time high to make the second high of a double top, that should be doable without either NQ or TF breaking back over their weekly pivots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that retest. (more…)
I posted the premarket video I did today for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net on my twitter before the open, and if you missed that you can see that here. I try to post one of these here a week as it also gives updates on the futures for USD, oil, nat gas, gold, 30yr treasuries, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and wheat as well as the usual ES, NQ & TF.
I did the SPX & RUT charts below on Saturday so they don’t include the action from this morning so far. I’ll be adding update notes to cover the action so far today.
On RUT I was looking at the low last week at short term rising wedge support. While that support was holding an all time high retest was very much on the table. That has broken this morning and that opens a high probability double top target in the 1410 area, and a target within the larger channel at channel support, currently in the 1373 area. RUT 60min chart: (more…)
The title phrase above is one I’ve always liked as it has a certain elegance and economy that appeals to me. It’s talking about how every part of a pig can be cooked and eaten. That doesn’t just apply to the pig of course, in China the description ‘heart of wolf, lung of dog’ can be applied to people as a statement that they have no redeeming features at all, as these are famously the only parts of any animal that cannot be used in cooking to make something nutritious and edible. Useful to know for anyone that has been hesitating over their first try at preparing panda testicles, sea-lion sphincter or alligator hide.
What’s my point? Well everything is in place for this pullback except the pullback itself, though that may at last be getting started as I have been preparing this post. If that can be sustained into breaks and conversion of the weekly pivots on ES, NQ and TF to resistance, then this show can finally get onto the road. (more…)