You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr & 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items.
Taking our macro indicators out of order, let’s start with Amigo #2, who we have been noting to be bracing for something…
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you’d like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.
ES gapped up over resistance on the NFP numbers this morning, and we are running the second option that I was looking at on the intraday video yesterday. ES is likely to hit the rising channel resistance I was looking at yesterday and that is now in the 2785 area. Ideally that gets hit today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
On the video today the first bit where I was looking at the action so far as a likely bull flag that should deliver a retest of the HOD is now obviously out of date, as the flag then broke up and made target, and we have a new HOD. That was unfortunately only of use to subscribers watching the video being recorded live, or on the subscriber twitter feed where I posted the full version soon afterwards. The shorter version takes a bit longer to produce.
For the rest of the video I am considering the case for a possible high being made here in the 2737.25 to 2741 area on ES and we are in that inflection point now. If we see a hard fail here we are looking for new 2018 lows at minimum. If we see a break up instead then we should see ES reach the 2780s next. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
……… While You Are Busy Making Other Plans – Allen Saunders
The ideal day for the bears today, after yesterday’s strong break over the daily middle band, would have been an AM high in the 2735-40 range on ES, then a break and conversion to resistance of 2716 on ES, and a trend day down closing the day well under the daily middle band in the 2700 area and delivering a very bearish daily middle band rejection candle.
The high this morning was low, not retesting the globex high on ES and not setting any decent hourly sell signals brewing. 2716 was then slowly converted to resistance, a process requiring a break of the level, a backtest that holds that level and then continuation in the direction of the break, but then ES found support at the weekly pivot at 2709, rejected back over 2716, reconverted that to support and continued up. This has more or less eliminated the possibility of seeing a rejection candle today, subject to presidential comments of course, (more…)
The hourly buy signals on ES, NQ, SPX and NDX all reached target today and the RSI 5 buy signal on RUT has reached target as well. Only the hourly RSI 14 buy signal on RUT hasn’t yet reached target and that is weakened by fixing at the same time as the RSI 5 buy signal that has reached target. ES and SPX both had pattern targets in the 2725 area that have been reached, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF have reached minimum targets but could go a little higher on their reversal patterns.
We are expecting this to just be a rally before new 2018 lows and the next reversal back down should start soon, though very possibly from higher and not necessarily from a high made today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
The following daily chart (and close-up shot) of the S&P 500 Index is criss-crossed by a number of trendlines. There are a couple of near-term price levels where these intersect at their apex (2730 and 2685). Should both of these be breached with force, we’ll likely see another leg down.
My last post referencing the SPX:VIX ratio offers further details that would corroborate such a downward event…worth monitoring in the days/weeks ahead.