Category Archives: Indicators

Market Forecast for 2018: More Volatility & Political Uncertainty

By -

In last year’s market outlook for 2017, I anticipated a rise of around 11% in U.S. equities, in general, to place the S&P 500 Index at just above the 2400 level by the end of the year (my post was written on December 1, 2016, so my calculations and forecast hadn’t incorporated a further 80-point rally that occurred during that month until year-end).

In my post of November 26, 2016, I was projecting a rally in the SPX to around 2700 by the next U.S. Presidential election in 2020. Markets have certainly been much more robust this year than I anticipated, as this level has almost been hit already. It rallied to an all-time high of 2657.74 on November 30 and closed on December 1 at 2642.22. (more…)

Markets Roiled by Political Legal & Legislative Drama

By -

U.S. equity markets experienced a volatile intraday trading session on Friday, as news unfolded throughout the day with respect to the ongoing DOJ Special Counsel legal investigation of the Trump administration and its potential involvement with Russian interference in the 2016 election, as well as to discussions and a final vote on tax reform/cuts in the Senate, as shown on the Daily charts below of the SPX and VIX.

(more…)

December Begins

By -

After the spike up at the start of the week I noted the clear break over the previous wedge resistance on SPX, and mentioned that the next decent candidate trendline was in the 2650 area. That was a slightly low estimate as that trendline was tested at the high yesterday at 2657.74, rather sooner than I was expected. At the first test SPX has rejected from it. SPX daily chart:

171201 SPX Daily

(more…)

International Financial ETFs Versus 3 Major World Indices

By -

It appears that several international Financial ETFs have, generally, performed well over the past couple of years and are, either approaching major resistance, or have already reached it, when compared with their respective country’s Major Index on a ratio basis.

The first is the XLF:$SPX ratio, as shown on the 5-Year Daily ratio chart below.

(more…)

Breaking Up Isn’t Hard To Do In 2017

By -

Bears really haven’t made a significant impression on equity indices this year (Editor’s Note: no kidding…..….) and, statistically, there’s not much reason to think that might change in the last month of the year. One key trendline that I have been watching is the very decent looking rising wedge resistance from the 2016 low and that has broken up with some confidence today. That could still be a bearish overthrow, but that seems doubtful. More likely SPX is heading to test the next decent trendline option, currently in the 2650 area. SPX daily chart:

171128 SPX Daily

(more…)