The decline on NDX on Friday was over 4% high to low intraday, and that was the most powerful one day decline that I’ve seen on an equity index in some years. I was talking on Thursday last week about the resistance trendlines on NDX and AMZN still being in doubt, and both were nicely clarified at Friday’s high. I also mentioned in that post that before the swing high that we are expecting here Stan and I would ideally like to see new all time highs made on all of SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF, and we saw all of those made before the reversal on Friday. This is a high quality candidate swing high here, but I’m just going to talk about NDX/NQ today as that has been driving the equity bull bus this year, and is the most important place to see high quality highs being made. (more…)
My apologies for the lack of posts so far this week. I’ve not been feeling great and it’s been a struggle just to keep up with my daily output for subscribers at theartofchart.net. Planning to resume these posts on a daily basis from this post today.
Last Friday NDX/NQ broke a strong resistance trendline, and that has opened up higher targets, not so much on NDX/NQ, though I have a longer term resistance trendline on NDX in the 6000 area that I will definitely be watching with great interest if reached. NDX 60min chart:
NDX retraced today without hitting my channel resistance trendlines in the 5830 area. My working assumption is that NDX will test those levels tomorrow or Friday. NDX 60min chart
I didn’t get to the post in RTH today, so I thought I’d do something different today and have a close look at NDX (Nasdaq 100). This is worth doing as there can be little doubt which index has been driving the bull bus in recent months, so I’ve been looking it carefully and am taking the opportunity to share what I’m seeing there tonight, with my normal mainly SPX-centric view back for tomorrow’s post.
The shorter term setup here is a rising channel from the April low within a larger rising channel from the November ’16 lows. The two channel resistance trendlines are intersecting this week in the 5830 area and that is the obvious target for NDX this week.
Just a quick post as I’ve been fighting the clock all day today, with a review of the pattern setup on SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF with the break over resistance last night.
On SPX the short term pattern from 2352 is a decent rising wedge. Wedge support currently in the 2410 area and a 15min RSI 14 sell signal fixed in the last half hour today. At the close a possible small double top forming looking for 2405/6 area on a sustained break below 2411.83. SPX 15min chart:
Yesterday was one of the lowest volume days of the year, and today was not an exciting day. This isn’t unusual just before a holiday weekend, though it’s rare to see much slowdown before Thursday. Yesterday I mentioned two levels that were unfinished business that might well need to be completed on NQ and TF. The unfinished business on TF was the test of the IHS target and monthly pivot at 1386, and that was hit this morning. The unfinished business on NQ was at the full retest of the all time high at 2427, and that was hit at the high this afternoon. I now have no open pattern targets above, apart from a weak possible alternate IHS target on NQ at 2746.
The obvious next move here is a reversal back down. The setup is all there and if this was a bullish setup I’d be taking out a second mortgage on the farm to add to my longs. As a bearish setup I like it a lot, but is obviously reliant on the bears showing us something to show they are still with us in more than spirit. (more…)
SPX resolved higher yesterday and the cycle trend day delivered a unidirectional day dominated by the bulls, though not making any new speed records of course. Today is the other cycle trend day this week but as yesterday’s cycle trend day delivered, that less likely to deliver today, and the day has been a two way trade so far.
SPX delivered strong closing breaks above the important resistance levels yesterday and at the time of writing they are the 5dma at 2379-80, the 50 hour MA at 2387/8, and the daily middle band at 2390.