Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Relative Wipeout

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It’s been a while since we looked at the ratio chart of the equal-weighted S&P 500 as compared to the normal S&P value, but here it is. As you can see, it’s a complete train wreck, which illustrates, once again, how a tiny handful of mega-caps are providing ALL the nominal strength to the headline numbers. People who read USA Today aren’t going to tell the difference between one S&P or the other, so it makes everyone chipper to see lifetime highs every day, even with all the rot beneath the surface.

Taking Stock

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One thing I always like to see on SPX the day after I call a possible high area is a big gap down and I wish that happened every time. Alas it does not, but it was nice to see that happen this morning.

In terms of the trendlines I was looking at in my post yesterday morning, SPX went a bit higher and hit the shorter term resistance trendline that I thought might need a hit. There was a nice rejection there that followed through hard this morning.

SPX daily BBs chart:

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It’s a Bubble, and it’s Intact

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The bubble in ‘no holds barred’ monetary policy (birthed under Alan Greenspan) and the bullish markets it benefits are in their third decade

Gold, meanwhile, will not be ready until the “post” bubble

Introduction

This is an article from a source, yours truly, who considers it his job to define the ‘top down’ macro before trying to pick stocks. In other words, it is important to get the big picture macro, as well as its shorter-term rotations, right before trying to select stocks and the sectors they reside in. In an extreme example, the gold mining sector has been most often impaired by the ‘bubble on’ macro, including its inflationary phases, not helped by it. “Post-bubble” will be a different story. But you can’t change the macro because of ‘want’. It will change when it is good and ready.

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Likely Retracement Coming Soon

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I’m expecting to see a retracement of the move up from the October lows start soon, and there are some targets I wanted to see made on equity indices before that happened. The last two of those were made on Friday.

The first of those was a retest of the all time high on NDX, and we saw a new high there on Friday, with a very nice looking overall rising wedges from both the 2022 low and the October 2023 low. This looks ready to turn soon.

NDX daily BBs chart:

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