Category Archives: Interest

Experts as Contrary Indicators (Bonds Edition)

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I want togross2 begin this post by again noting publicly that feel like I clowned myself yesterday in my own trading and in my lack of attention to the market at a critical point (couldn’t really be helped, but it’s the results that matter). Despite a market doing generally as expected, I was not really prepared. My macro views often prove right on while my own execution can shall we say, vary. It’s why I tell NFTRH subscribers or anyone considering the service it is best to follow the analysis, not what some faulty trader is doing at any given time.

The reason for the paragraph above is balance for the paragraphs below, in which we drive home once again the folly of listening to experts (at least the experts the media shove in your face at ill-timed junctures). I had a subscriber leave NFTRH in mid-2016 (he’s back and we’ve had a friendly review of that situation) in part because I was doggedly bearish gold and bullish the Semiconductors, which was exactly opposite to the stance of a technology expert, whose service he also subscribed to. It made me sad (for both of us) to have stuck to my convictions, but lost a subscriber while turning out to be right in my view. (more…)


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The big Fed announcement/press conference/dot plot update isn’t until tomorrow, but let’s take a quick look at how bonds are doing in advance of the big day.

I confess I was getting jumpy about the strength bonds had been showing, including a pretty decent-looking basing pattern. Mercifully, a long-term trendline saved the day. Look how clean the repulsion is away from that trendline:

zbclose (more…)

From Our Contrary Perch, an Update on Bonds

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[edit] Today I took profit (principal & interest) on 7-10 year Treasury fund IEF in order to concentrate on the shorter end of the curve for ‘cash equivalent’ income.

[edit 2] I know TK gets a kick out of this picture, so here it is again! (Editor’s note: get this man a lozenge!!)


With all due respect to Bill, Ray and Paul the play has been for a contrary move in bonds with our 3 leading experts emblematic of the media’s habit of pointing the investing herds the wrong way at the wrong time. Making myself clear again, I don’t dispute the potential – even likelihood – that a bond bear market began in 2016. But I do dispute every single call out there that it has been technically proven. (more…)