The latest economic data came out this morning, and it indicates that, in spite of the Fed’s best efforts, inflation just is not kicking in. CPI fell for the fourth month in a row, and the US dollar has continued doing what it’s been doing the entirety of 2017, which is sink.
In turn, precious metals are getting a hearty bid (which will probably blow me right out of my DUST position at the opening bell). For gold bulls to reclaim power, they’ll need to close the gap I’ve pointed out below and push above it. Otherwise, this is just going to be another opportunity for the bears to take advantage of precious metals weakness, more or less in place for the past six years and counting. (more…)
Further to my post of April 10, 30-Year Bonds have gained a couple of points, as shown on the Monthly chart below.
Price now sits just above major resistance (50% Fibonacci retracement) and is poised to begin reversing the steep plunge that began in mid-2016.
If there’s one thing that has really stood out over the last few months it has been the SPX tape’s tendency to just stop doing anything interesting for several days at a time. SPX has tested the daily middle band as resistance every day for a coma-inducing eight days, but I was saying in my premarket video to Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net an hour before the open that there was good reason to think that we would see breaks down on equity indices today, and we may well be seeing the start of that now. You can see that premarket video here. SPX daily chart:
I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.
What I am trying to say is that after the previous media headlines last summer (mainstream media: NIRP & BREXIT!!… everybody into risk ‘off’ bonds!) yields reacted a bit and rose as they should have, from a contrary setup, in order to catch the herds off sides.
But then the hysteria over the Trump election led to the Druck’n Suck-In of the true believers (or “Sons of Druckenmiller”) and… here we are with everybody anti-bonds, pro-reflation and pro-interest rates. Maybe they would be right this time, but then again, given the herd’s history (from Sentimentrader w/ my markups)…