It was refreshing to see the bears deliver a decent decline yesterday, with a clear fail at the retest of the daily middle band. SPX is now into the higher part of my target zone and there is now a very nice falling channel from the highs that should define the retracement. as and when this channel breaks up, this retracement should be over or ending. SPX 60min chart:
Now that the downtrend is more than just the bare minimum I would like to talk about the two main target zones here. I have two target areas within my target range, though I’ll expand that range slightly from 1995-2033 to 1990-2033. (more…)
SPX hit my 1940-5 target range yesterday and at the moment seems to be failing there. That fail looks very bearish but I’ll be assuming that this is a retracement only unless we break through the MA support cluster in the 1970-80 area to open up a possible retest of the 200 DMA at 1920, and then break hard through that on that retest. Until then I will be assuming that we are looking for a retracement before a move to new highs. SPX daily chart:
I was looking at two important trendline support levels on Friday morning, and both of them broke down in the afternoon. The pattern from the 2001 low has fixed as a rising wedge and that should now be in a short term topping process. SPX 1min chart:
The past few days have been quite an emotional and price roller coaster. I’ve got one of my “deep thinking” posts tumbling around in my head that some people really like; whether or not I actually write it remains to be seen. So I’ll just do a low-thinking chart post.
One nifty way to look at where the big bounce has put us is the semiconductor index, which has been an important guide to market strength and weakness. It’s perfectly nailing the underside of its trendline, which is serving its role as resistance. This is a likely turning point.
Interest rates utterly collapsed at the equity market’s bottom on October 15th, and they have soared since then (as have, obviously, stocks). We are nearly a monstrous overhang at this point, however, and my view is that rates will resume their downward fall soon (with bonds, naturally, strengthening the whole while).