As the global and U.S. equity markets stage a huge recovery rally, 10-year YIELD continues to creep higher– to 2.24% from the Aug 24 low at 1.90%– within a larger-developing bottoming pattern (outlined by the red lines below).
Current strength has propelled YIELD up and out of its near-term digestion (flag) pattern that triggers upside potential to challenge its Jan, 2014, resistance line, now at 2.40%.
Only a break below 2.11% will wreck the developing bullish set-up in YIELD.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
I’ve been shorting again today, taking advantage of market strength. Here’s a new one:
Last night, driving at 1:30 in the morning with my son to find a place to look at the meteor shower, I was telling him about the magical world of Dennis Gartman. I described the entire Gartman meme over at ZH, and my boy thought it was hilarious.
I pointed out on my Tastytrade show last Thursday that bonds looked poised for a lift-off. Well, once the modest resistance (tinted in green) was breached, it was off to the races. Interest rates seem destined lower (obviously).
The following 1-Year Daily chart of 30-Year U.S. Bonds ($USB) shows that a bearish moving average Death Cross has recently formed — warning that lower prices may be in store. However, the rising RSI indicates building strength from May through July.
In case you thought you were smart enough to know why the Fed wants to do what it supposedly wants to do  MarketWatch sets you straight with the real scoop. We’ll use this as a talking point and see what comes of it…
Policy makers want to give themselves some room to maneuver
That is the commonly held belief and who am I to dispute it? A big part of the problem is and has been their refusal to begin a journey toward normalization 2 years ago, when the economy began to visibly (we noted the seeds of that improvement in January of that year) improve. They had no confidence and I was left to wonder (aloud here, frequently and I am sure, sometimes obnoxiously) why Grandma  (and her 0% savings account payout) had to continue to bear the brunt of this non-action despite a recovering economy.
During the past 3-4 weeks, my preferred scenario called for the 10-year Yield to stall at around 2.50% followed by a decline into the 2.10-2.00% support zone prior to my expectation of the emergence of a new up-leg that propels Yield to 2.90-3.00%.
That said, however, my near-term pattern work is warning me that last week’s (Jul 9) low at 2.17% followed by a sharp rally to yesterday’s high at 2.47% signifies the end of a June-July correction and the initiation of a new up-leg.