There are a couple elements of this perma-rising market which I actually applaud. One of them is precious metals, which I hope roar to the moon and beyond. The second is bonds. Looking at the chart below, it seems to me the long bond is getting ready to add another leg to its incredibly long-lived bull market. Why people think Yellen might raise rates next week is beyond me. It seems the market believes interest rates are going to hang out near zero for pretty much the rest of our lifetimes.
I was saying yesterday that SPX was in an inflection point and the direction of the resolution was important, and the bears then immediately dropped the ball at the open to allow the cycle trend day to deliver a strong trend up day. This has brought SPX up to another inflection area in the 2040-50 range that was range support February through July last year, and that is being tested hard this morning. If bulls break through it that opens up the IHS target in the 2082 area and a possible retest of the all time high at 2134.
Apologies for the very late post today. I had a morning appointment that overran badly, and it’s slower work getting charts done after the markets open and I’m then trading as well as charting.
I mentioned on twitter last night after the close that the bulls narrowly managed to avoid a 5dma three day rule breakdown with a target at a retest of the lows. There was more downside overnight that reached my ideal target on ES at a retest of the 1850 area and ES then reversed back up hard there. There is a strange myth that globex highs and lows always need to be retested soon after. I’ve been watching that for a while and have seen little evidence to support this, and there’s no need to see that here.
This is just kind of a throwaway post, since I hardly ever mention bonds……….but they sure seem to be just kind of meandering their way into narcolepsy at this point. That triangle has to break sometime soon. Anyway………I’d better focus on Christmas, since we’re hosting tomorrow!
As the global and U.S. equity markets stage a huge recovery rally, 10-year YIELD continues to creep higher– to 2.24% from the Aug 24 low at 1.90%– within a larger-developing bottoming pattern (outlined by the red lines below).
Current strength has propelled YIELD up and out of its near-term digestion (flag) pattern that triggers upside potential to challenge its Jan, 2014, resistance line, now at 2.40%.
Only a break below 2.11% will wreck the developing bullish set-up in YIELD.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
I’ve been shorting again today, taking advantage of market strength. Here’s a new one: