The only two kinds of TA that I refer to every day are classical charting, mainly my own, and Elliot Wave. For EW I don’t of course use Prechter and EWI, as Prechter’s analytical skills have long been eclipsed by his faith that we are in some kind of apocalyptic ending move which is the climax of a massive 5 point move up from 1500 AD, or 500 AD, or whatever. I’m not one to mock the religious beliefs of another, but faith has no place at all in analysis, so while Prechter stands on his lonely mountain top waiting for the end of the world as we know it, I’ve been ignoring him and watching the calls of my very capable EW chartist friends Pug and Alphahorn. (more…)
That was an interesting day yesterday and SPX reached the targets I was talking about in the morning at the retest of the 50 hour MA and broken rising channel support. The high falls between two fibonacci retracement targets but otherwise is a model rally high. SPX 60min chart:
The rising channel on SPX broke yesterday and I’m leaning towards the view now that the Spring high was made last Friday and that SPX has started the move to retest broken resistance at the 2000 and 2007 highs that I’ve been expecting to see this summer. Obviously the bears have dropped the ball a lot of times in the last few years, but I would expect this setup to resolve down. SPX broke back below the daily middle bollinger band yesterday and as long as that holds on a daily basis then the next target is the daily lower bollinger band in the 1837 area, currently just under smaller double-top support at 1839/40. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Everyone expects Janet Yellen to be a rolling over, inflationist stooge just like they did Ben Bernanke. Bernanke came on board after Alan Greenspan had taken the Fed Funds rate up to around 5% if I remember correctly. Inflationists and gold bugs thought they had it in the bag when ‘Helicopter Ben’ assumed control.
Indeed, Bernanke did what he was supposed to do (per the ‘Helicopter ‘Ben’ script) as systemic stresses began to gather in 2007, addressing that pesky Funds rate, culminating in December, 2008′s official ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). Here again is the chart showing the S&P 500′s ‘Hump #3′ attended by this most beneficial monetary policy. (more…)
Last Thursday morning SPX was looking like it might gap up over the very important support/resistance level at the 50 hour MA, and I was saying that a gap over that should be respected unless the opening gap was then filled. SPX then tested the 50 hour MA at the opening print and fell 30 points or so after the failure there.
We have a similar setup this morning, and as was the case then, a gap over the 50 hour MA should be respected as an unfilled gap over a resistance level is the strongest kind of resistance break in my view. As with the last time a strong reversal there this morning should be respected as well. (more…)
The HUI Gold Bugs index got Ukrained to the extent that global crisis hype seeped into this market leading into the weekend. The S&P 500 got Ukrained the other way as people actually acted as if the Crimea question is a macro fundamental.