Category Archives: Interest

10-Year Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market

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My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10-year US Treasury yield argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35-year bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year bull market (dominant uptrend).

From 1981, when 10-year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, uncontainable inflation and stagnant growth (“stagflation”) precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-financial-crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).

From a technical perspective, I can make the case that all of the action in yield from mid-2011 into early 2017—a 5-1/2 year period– represents a major base formation at the conclusion of a generational yield bear market (see shaded area on Chart 1). That said, to confirm the end of the 5-1/2 year transition from bear to bull market, yield must climb and sustain above significant resistance lodged between 2.75% and 3.30%. Yield currently is circling 2.50%.

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Treasury Bond Yields Are Turning Up Again

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My work has triggered preliminary signals that the correction of the Sept-Dec upleg in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) ended at yesterday’s (Jan 12) low of 38.19, and that a new upleg has commenced.

Let’s notice that the 24-hour upmove from 38.19 has stalled just below 39.90, which represents the resistance line off of the Dec high, and which, if (when?) hurdled, will trigger upside potential that projects to a retest of the Dec-high zone at 41.70 – 43.00.

Only a decline that breaks 38.19 will neutralize the constructive chart set-up.

Mike Paulenoff is founder of MPTrader.com, where he provides live intraday analysis and trade alerts covering the equity, commodity, and currency markets.

The Times They Are A Changin’

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2017 is likely to be an interesting year, and the tape has already shaken off the December cobwebs and is moving again. On the bigger picture the chart below is how I’m seeing SPX on the monthly chart here, and the key message is that the bull market from the 2009 low here is most likely topping out or has already topped, though that doesn’t mean that SPX will necessarily drop much in 2017. This has been an eight year bull market and if we see the retracement that I’m looking at on the chart below, then we may not see that bear market low until 2020/1. If we see that 50% retracement then that would be a beautiful fibonacci move, and should then set up a very nice long into the next bull market.

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R.I.P. Bond Bull!!!!!

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I had to add all the !!!!! because as in the mainstream media, this little outpost wants to get your attention and get you all riled up.  Here’s the headline (from Bloomberg, which I actually like a lot more than the average financial media backwash).

[edit] Just yesterday we highlighted the same MSM entity publishing some very sound words by Barry Ritholtz on a related topic.

Clicking the headline yields the article…

headline

So the charts say the last gasps have been taken, do they?  Oooh, the charts…

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The Fed Wind Always Blows

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FOMC day again today and as ever I’m astounded by the number of people hanging onto Yellen’s every word, and what a market moving event this tends to be. Even more amazing is the importance that everyone seems to attach to the Fed’s ‘control’ of interest rates, and in the event that they show a small sliver of backbone today and take the tiny step of increasing the fed rate from almost nothing to a little more than almost nothing, then this will be extensively debated over coming weeks as though it really matters.

The truth is though that the fed rate only really impacts very short term interest rates, and that anything longer term is determined by markets in the form of the yields on the ten year (TNX) and 30 year (TYX) treasuries. The Fed has little influence over these as far as I can tell, and doesn’t appear to employ any technical analysts good enough to allow the Fed bigwigs to comment intelligently about them. On a good day their forecasts for these are fairly random, and on a bad day (late 2013) almost perfectly inaccurate. Anyone genuinely interested in bond yield direction should be watching Chart Chat at theartofchart.net twice a week, or at minimum coming to our December forecast for the next year, which this year (for indexes, bonds and currencies) is after the close tomorrow and free to all. You can register for that on this page here if you’re interested.

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Looking For Retracement Here

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Yesterday was a an unexpected trend day. Usually trend days arrive on Stan’s cycle trend days but not always and yesterday was one of those exceptions. The double bottom targets that I gave on Monday morning for ES, NQ & TF have now all been made, and obviously this move is developing faster than I was expecting. This increases the odds of making the next significant high in mid to late December rather than January.

The trend day yesterday clarified the pattern setup here nicely on NQ & TF. Less so on ES, but that too is likely setting up for some retracement here. The obvious target would be rising support, currently in the 2218 area. ES Dec 60min chart:

161208 AM ES Dec 60min

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