Category Archives: Long-Term

US Stock Market, Big Picture View

By -

Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…

S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support.  Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap.  We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.

spx monthly chart


The Quiet Before The Storm

By -


In my recent momo update I was quite adamant about the increasing odds of a major market correction. Since then we’ve seen a further increase in spasmodic intra-day gyrations across the board, fueled by a mix of low participation bot trading, heightened emotions and a constant stream of contradicting market rumors (e.g. Deutsche Bank). The trading lair has been in defcon 3 mode for a while now which clearly affects our daily trading activities. (more…)

Testing Support and AAPL Revisited

By -

I wasn’t planning a post here today but I have more time than I expected this morning, and I didn’t manage to do the AAPL post I was planning yesterday, so I’m going to combine them both into a single post here this morning.

I’m rolling into the December contract over the weekend, so if you’ve rolled already then I’ve put the spread between the September and December contracts on each of the ES, NQ & TF charts below. All three charts were done and posted last night for subscribers at

At the time of writing all the key support levels that I was looking for at the time I did these charts are being tested. ES has made the 61.8% fib retrace and is testing the monthly pivot at 2168 (2161.5 on ES Dec). NQ has made the double double target at 4783, and is now testing the monthly pivot at 4763 (4759 on NQ Dec). TF has made the obvious 38.2% fib retrace at 1249/50 (1245 on TF Dec). These are big support levels, and given the timing on the cycle windows I’m expecting a reversal back up to new highs here.


Misplaced Enthusiasm

By -

I was chatting to a trader friend at the end of last week and he was telling me that many were now looking for a major bull breakout on SPX from here, and I think I’ll show in my post today one strong reason to think that’s very unlikely to happen. That reason is based on what has been happening at the weekly upper band over the last three weeks, which historically has been a very solid indicator that short term upside is limited and that a minimum 4%+ retracement is close. (more…)


By -

An S&P 500 heatmap from Friday shows the extent of the Red Sea inspired from across The Pond.  However… money flowed into one stock that actually hit new highs.  These are great days to isolate equities with concentrated capital chasing alpha.

What better way to celebrate new found volatility than to offset bearish blog bias with bullish resistance ???

Check it out:

S&P 500 Heatmap

The MO MO Trade
For nearly 2 years, waiting for pullbacks, loading, then unloading on measured move highs has been a nice strategy for Altria.  Lather, rinse, repeat.  Of course, this doesn’t have to last forever, but as long as the higher highs > higher lows trend continues, we’ll stick with it. (more…)

A Dollar and (My) Two Cents

By -

Quite a Friday we had last week, huh? Upon checking my “End of Week” Charts, I noticed some interesting behaviour and thought I’d share my observations.  Last weekend sometime, I shared a weekly chart of the US Dollar and that it was approaching its 20 week MA.  I use the 20week and 20day moving averages as basic bull/bear filters.  I’m only bullish on stocks that are above both and I’m only bearish on stocks that are below both.

I find this makes for an easy and efficient filter.  I thought that the US Dollar had reversed short of the test until I saw it after the close Friday and realized it had tested the 20week MA exactly.  Take a look. (click any chart for a larger size version)