Not to get all Elliott-Wavey on you, but I’ve made a very slight change to my $SPX chart with respect to its Fibonacci retracement. Specifically, I’ve moved the lower extreme to the 1980 low instead of the 1982 low, which I should have done in the first place!
I posted the premarket video I did today for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net on my twitter before the open, and if you missed that you can see that here. I try to post one of these here a week as it also gives updates on the futures for USD, oil, nat gas, gold, 30yr treasuries, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and wheat as well as the usual ES, NQ & TF.
I did the SPX & RUT charts below on Saturday so they don’t include the action from this morning so far. I’ll be adding update notes to cover the action so far today.
On RUT I was looking at the low last week at short term rising wedge support. While that support was holding an all time high retest was very much on the table. That has broken this morning and that opens a high probability double top target in the 1410 area, and a target within the larger channel at channel support, currently in the 1373 area. RUT 60min chart: (more…)
Farewell, vain world! I’m going home!
My Savior smiles and bids me come,
And I don’t care to stay here long!
Hello from the Google campus Starbucks, where I again take keyboard in hand to share some bearish thoughts for the week ahead. Thanks to my precious SlopeCharts, I am able to share some ideas related to worldwide markets, which I think create a pastiche of ursine possibilities.
Broadly speaking, I am seeing three different kinds of situations with these international indexes. Some of them had bullish breakouts which have since failed. Others are at extremely high prices relative to their broad histories. And others, like the Straits Times Index below, are getting repelled by overhead supply.
I’ve had a gum infection this week and that has been affecting my sleep patterns and my powers of concentration. Hopefully it will mostly have passed by tomorrow, as it has definitely improved from yesterday to today.
I’m getting a post out before I go to bed tonight though because there is likely to be an important inflection point coming this week, possibly as soon as tomorrow, and everyone should be aware of that.
The short term picture on SPX / ES is that a triangle formed last week and broke up yesterday. I look at that more closely on the ES chart below but the way these generally work is that you see the initial break up (yesterday), then a backtest back into the triangle (today – possibly completed), and then a thrust up to a higher high, at which point we hit the inflection point that I’m looking at this week. When the triangle thrust ends the thrust is usually entirely retraced.
The decline on NDX on Friday was over 4% high to low intraday, and that was the most powerful one day decline that I’ve seen on an equity index in some years. I was talking on Thursday last week about the resistance trendlines on NDX and AMZN still being in doubt, and both were nicely clarified at Friday’s high. I also mentioned in that post that before the swing high that we are expecting here Stan and I would ideally like to see new all time highs made on all of SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF, and we saw all of those made before the reversal on Friday. This is a high quality candidate swing high here, but I’m just going to talk about NDX/NQ today as that has been driving the equity bull bus this year, and is the most important place to see high quality highs being made. (more…)
My apologies for the lack of posts so far this week. I’ve not been feeling great and it’s been a struggle just to keep up with my daily output for subscribers at theartofchart.net. Planning to resume these posts on a daily basis from this post today.
Last Friday NDX/NQ broke a strong resistance trendline, and that has opened up higher targets, not so much on NDX/NQ, though I have a longer term resistance trendline on NDX in the 6000 area that I will definitely be watching with great interest if reached. NDX 60min chart: