Category Archives: Long-Term

Intel’s Rosy Future

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Intel and Yahoo both spiked higher after the close, once they reported their earnings. Yahoo, as I type this, has given up all of its gains, and it’s in the red. Intel, on the other hand, is up over 4%.

This doesn’t surprise me in the least. Yahoo, in my opinion, has always been a maker of some of the crappier products and web sites on the Internet, and I am stunned beyond calculation that they’ve even been as successful as they are. YHOO is all about Alibaba (founded by far and away the World’s Weirdest Looking CEO), and once that firm goes public on the oh-so-superstitious 8/8, they’ll have shot their wad.. (more…)

Broken Trendlines

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Thursday was a strong day on SPX and NDX, and at the close, all three of the significant resistance trendlines that I was looking at in my Thursday morning post were broken. The most important of those was primary channel resistance from the October 2011, which had been tested and held in all four of the preceding weeks but has now finally been broken. I would expect another pattern to form and am considering the likely options, but at the least I’d be looking for a further move to the 2040 area now. SPX weekly chart:

140704 SPX Weekly Primary Rising Channel Broken

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Bear Window Closing

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My daughter is getting braces tomorrow morning and I’m going with her so I’m unlikely to manage to put a post together before the open tomorrow. I’ve given this some thought and decided to do a short post tonight and then if I see anything else worth posting before the open tomorrow I’ll post it on twitter then or, if I get back in enough time before the open, I might manage to put up another short post then, but at the moment I think that’s unlikely.

SPX had a decent day yesterday, closing on the key resistance level at 1861 that I flagged as an important bull/bear level in the morning. That may hold tomorrow, as the stats for the last day of the second quarter are bearish, with Dow showing 33% positive closes over the last twenty years or so and SPX at 38%. I looked at the last ten years of these on SPX in detail and pulled out the following interesting points: (more…)

Precious Metals – Definitely Maybe

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Back on 22nd January I posted a chart showing that the falling channel on GDX from 54.18 had broken up and wondered aloud whether the precious metals bear market was bottoming out. That low was supported by very powerful positive divergence on the weekly RSI that I would normally associate with a major low. That low has held since and GDX has put in a higher high and (most likely) low since then, although that would also generally be the case on a bear flag of course, and that is always a possibility for a shallowly rising channel coming off a steep decline. If GDX can break over falling channel resistance from the high, currently in the 34 area, that should confirm a major low. GDX weekly chart: (more…)

The Sheep Look Up

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I’ve been hearing a lot this week, and particularly with the break up yesterday, that we have moved beyond an area where TA can help forecast the markets. I have to say the evidence for that right here looks pretty thin. I said in my post last Friday that SPX might well retest the highs unless the 50 hour MA held as resistance. In my post yesterday morning I noted that SPX had broken back over the 50 hour MA and showed a rising wedge from the 1925 low, giving my reasons why I thought that wedge might well break up with a target in the 1960-5 area rather than break down. Yesterday that wedge broke up with a target in the 1965 area, and that joins the 1965 target that I gave almost a year ago in my weekend post on on 30th June 2013 after the break up from a much larger rising wedge. So far at least we have not demonstrably moved out of predictable territory. (more…)

US Dollar and Bonds

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No equity charts today as I covered that pretty thoroughly in my post yesterday. You can see that here if you missed it. Today I’m going to have a look at USD and bonds.

For the last few months I’ve had mixed feelings about USD, as there were, and still are, strong bull and bear scenarios. Last year I gave key support on USD at 78.6 and USD came close to testing that in May. However the marginal new low made in May didn’t challenge 78.6, and I’m increasingly leaning bullish. The daily RSI 5 is signalling a decent retracement here, but as long as the May low at 78.93 holds this retracement should be a buy, and I’d expect the next move up to test main double bottom resistance in the 81.5 area. USD daily chart: (more…)

Weekly Upper Band Punches

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At the close on Friday there was a clear punch over the weekly upper bollinger band. These are rare, and even rarer when the weekly RSI 14 is over 70, and this is only the tenth such punch in the last twenty years. I’ve had a look at the previous nine to see what they can tell us about what to expect next.

My first observation would be that only three of those were at a short term high, though another five topped out within 2% of the punch level, before making a retracement that went at least back below the punch level and ranged in size from 3% to 21%. The exception was in June 1997 which went into an eight day upper band ride that ran up 80 points before retracing 70 points. This is a fairly bearish history, with one strong exception. (more…)