Category Archives: Long-Term

Pavlov and the Three Little Bears

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SPX made a new high yesterday and closed at 2011.36, only 0.13 over the daily upper band which closed the day at 2011.23. The bears had plenty of time to knock the market down after a new all time high was made in the morning, and failed to do so. The odds that we are starting an upper band ride on SPX improved sharply yesterday.

It’s a struggle to remain objective at a time like this because the last couple of years have conditioned us all to dismiss any bear case at the first sign of trouble, and I’m struggling not to just do that here. The odds of a bullish resolution here are definitely improving, but that’s not a done deal yet, and the stats from my SPX daily RSI5 / NYMO sell signal particularly are warning that we could still see a bearish resolution here, though if we are to see that we would need to see some significant weakness today or at latest on Monday. (more…)

US Dollar – Infinity and Beyond?

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At the end of the two previous QE periods there have been three strong trends that have emerged each time. The first two are a significant pullback in equities and a strong rally on bonds. We may be approaching a significant high on equities soon, and I have a setup for a major further rally in bonds, though that may well only trigger if we see that strong pullback on equities.

The third is a strong rally on USD, and it’s that I would like to talk about today. USD has advanced strongly since hitting 78.93 in May, and I want to show where that is likely to lead over the next few months, and where it might then go over the next few years. (more…)

Intel’s Rosy Future

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Intel and Yahoo both spiked higher after the close, once they reported their earnings. Yahoo, as I type this, has given up all of its gains, and it’s in the red. Intel, on the other hand, is up over 4%.

This doesn’t surprise me in the least. Yahoo, in my opinion, has always been a maker of some of the crappier products and web sites on the Internet, and I am stunned beyond calculation that they’ve even been as successful as they are. YHOO is all about Alibaba (founded by far and away the World’s Weirdest Looking CEO), and once that firm goes public on the oh-so-superstitious 8/8, they’ll have shot their wad.. (more…)

Broken Trendlines

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Thursday was a strong day on SPX and NDX, and at the close, all three of the significant resistance trendlines that I was looking at in my Thursday morning post were broken. The most important of those was primary channel resistance from the October 2011, which had been tested and held in all four of the preceding weeks but has now finally been broken. I would expect another pattern to form and am considering the likely options, but at the least I’d be looking for a further move to the 2040 area now. SPX weekly chart:

140704 SPX Weekly Primary Rising Channel Broken

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Bear Window Closing

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My daughter is getting braces tomorrow morning and I’m going with her so I’m unlikely to manage to put a post together before the open tomorrow. I’ve given this some thought and decided to do a short post tonight and then if I see anything else worth posting before the open tomorrow I’ll post it on twitter then or, if I get back in enough time before the open, I might manage to put up another short post then, but at the moment I think that’s unlikely.

SPX had a decent day yesterday, closing on the key resistance level at 1861 that I flagged as an important bull/bear level in the morning. That may hold tomorrow, as the stats for the last day of the second quarter are bearish, with Dow showing 33% positive closes over the last twenty years or so and SPX at 38%. I looked at the last ten years of these on SPX in detail and pulled out the following interesting points: (more…)