Category Archives: Long-Term

Apple’s Lost Lustre

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UPDATE: I wrote this over the weekend, and it doesn’t take into account that AAPL is down today (unlike just about every other ticker symbol on the planet), which I think only strengthens the case……….

Perhaps the best-known publicly-traded stock on the planet is Apple. There are a couple of things about Apple that would probably surprise a lot of people. First, as marvelous as the percentage gain was during the “golden dozen years” (2003-2015) of this stock, there are many stocks – – far, far more boring companies – – whose percentage gains completely dwarf Apple’s. I’ve mentioned them before, but basically, the more dull the company (Hormel, Smuckers, etc.) the more amazing the gains have been.

Second, for a huge period of time, Apple was an absolutely awful stock. It had its ups and downs, but the 1983 to 2003, a period of two entire decades, the stock went nowhere. And keep in mind, this 0% return was six years after Jobs’ glorious return, and well into the success of the iPod product line. Take note of the magenta line below and see how, in spite of wild swings, Apple was dead money for a twenty year span of time.

0417-AAPLOLD

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Same Shape, Different Day

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Well, my friends, it’s getting a little challenging adding a lot of new color to a market whose most recent changes for the entire trading day were down a few hundredths of a percentage point on Thursday and up a few hundredths of a percentage point today. Two words: Bo. Ring.

The entire market can be beautifully summed up with a single index chart: that of the S&P 100, shown below. The bull market ended when the wedge was broken (red arrow) and now we’re at the very top of the recent range (green tint), just waiting for the damned thing to weaken. And so……..we wait.

0328-waiting

Bear Markets Are Hard

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Bear markets in particular have a way of wearing on you. Sure they look great in hindsight, leaving little doubt about how you one could have easily banked millions. And quite frankly there is actually some truth in that (we’ll cover that later), but in reality most traders usually get chopped to pieces trying to time the endless preceding gyrations, only then to watch the tape run away without them.

2016-01-28_spoos_LT

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