Apologies for the very late post today. I had an appointment that overran badly & missed the open. That was annoying as I was short from the globex highs and missed the very well signalled low, but that’s the way it goes.
Was that the low for this retracement? Well it made the little double top target left over from yesterday, but fell well short of hitting rising channel support. That looks like unfinished business unless we see a strong break back up, and if that support is going to be hit on this retracement, then the ideal fib time/place hits would be the 2088 area at lunchtime today or the 2094 area tomorrow morning. If SPX breaks back up hard then this rising channel has evolved into a rising wedge and the next upside target is the same pattern resistance trendline, currently in the 2125-30 area, so already in the right target area to make the IHS target there. SPX 5min chart:
I’m ready to do a projection of what I am thinking may well happen on SPX over the next twelve months. My main scenario is this, and variants of the same scenario. It’s a good fit with the pattern structure, and the first month indicator for 2015 that indicated strongly that 2015 would at best be a flat year.
Does this match any other forecasts that I’m reading? Well no, most are far more bullish and they could be right, but I posted an even more minority view projection for bonds at the start of 2014 to general incredulity, and price followed my arrows very well for the next six months as everyone betting on the almost universally expected big bonds decline got a very nasty surprise. We’ll see whether this projection fares as well as that one did. SPX daily projection 150224:
SPX didn’t make it to my minimum retracement target at 2080 as it made a perfect touch of the 50 hour MA and reversed hard there. That does tend to be solid support in uptrends until they are into the topping process and, as I was saying on Friday morning, this uptrend doesn’t look finished yet.
I am considering the possibility that a rising wedge from the October low is still forming and have drawn in that possible rising wedge support trendline in blue dotted line on the chart below. If that is the case then there is a very obvious target in the 2120-5 area at the intersection of the original wedge support trendline and the wedge resistance trendline. That is the first area of resistance that I am watching. SPX 60min chart:
I’m felling better than I did yesterday. I should be fully recovered by Monday I think and normal service will resume.
SPX has made visual (near miss) hits of the daily upper band yesterday and today. SPX has also made a new all time high today and is at the first major resistance area to look for a possible hard fail. If there is a serious break up here then we would move up to the next big level of resistance. SPX daily chart:
One of the first things that I mentioned on Friday morning was that it was important for bears to deliver a conviction break below the weekly middle band at 2014 to open up the next targets below. With the open at 1992 that didn’t look that hard but the close at 2019 failed to deliver that important support break. SPX weekly chart:
With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture. Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) by way of some NFTRH monthly charts.
Let’s start with currencies, since they are a reflection upon global policy making, which has been unprecedented in its direct market interference over the last few years.
Nominal Charts – Currency
We noted the hot air patch in the Canada dollar last year. I had thought CDW might stop and find support at 85, which is a measurement from the topping pattern; but so far, no dice.