Category Archives: Long-Term

Misplaced Enthusiasm

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I was chatting to a trader friend at the end of last week and he was telling me that many were now looking for a major bull breakout on SPX from here, and I think I’ll show in my post today one strong reason to think that’s very unlikely to happen. That reason is based on what has been happening at the weekly upper band over the last three weeks, which historically has been a very solid indicator that short term upside is limited and that a minimum 4%+ retracement is close. (more…)


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An S&P 500 heatmap from Friday shows the extent of the Red Sea inspired from across The Pond.  However… money flowed into one stock that actually hit new highs.  These are great days to isolate equities with concentrated capital chasing alpha.

What better way to celebrate new found volatility than to offset bearish blog bias with bullish resistance ???

Check it out:

S&P 500 Heatmap

The MO MO Trade
For nearly 2 years, waiting for pullbacks, loading, then unloading on measured move highs has been a nice strategy for Altria.  Lather, rinse, repeat.  Of course, this doesn’t have to last forever, but as long as the higher highs > higher lows trend continues, we’ll stick with it. (more…)

A Dollar and (My) Two Cents

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Quite a Friday we had last week, huh? Upon checking my “End of Week” Charts, I noticed some interesting behaviour and thought I’d share my observations.  Last weekend sometime, I shared a weekly chart of the US Dollar and that it was approaching its 20 week MA.  I use the 20week and 20day moving averages as basic bull/bear filters.  I’m only bullish on stocks that are above both and I’m only bearish on stocks that are below both.

I find this makes for an easy and efficient filter.  I thought that the US Dollar had reversed short of the test until I saw it after the close Friday and realized it had tested the 20week MA exactly.  Take a look. (click any chart for a larger size version)


Apple’s Lost Lustre

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UPDATE: I wrote this over the weekend, and it doesn’t take into account that AAPL is down today (unlike just about every other ticker symbol on the planet), which I think only strengthens the case……….

Perhaps the best-known publicly-traded stock on the planet is Apple. There are a couple of things about Apple that would probably surprise a lot of people. First, as marvelous as the percentage gain was during the “golden dozen years” (2003-2015) of this stock, there are many stocks – – far, far more boring companies – – whose percentage gains completely dwarf Apple’s. I’ve mentioned them before, but basically, the more dull the company (Hormel, Smuckers, etc.) the more amazing the gains have been.

Second, for a huge period of time, Apple was an absolutely awful stock. It had its ups and downs, but the 1983 to 2003, a period of two entire decades, the stock went nowhere. And keep in mind, this 0% return was six years after Jobs’ glorious return, and well into the success of the iPod product line. Take note of the magenta line below and see how, in spite of wild swings, Apple was dead money for a twenty year span of time.



Same Shape, Different Day

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Well, my friends, it’s getting a little challenging adding a lot of new color to a market whose most recent changes for the entire trading day were down a few hundredths of a percentage point on Thursday and up a few hundredths of a percentage point today. Two words: Bo. Ring.

The entire market can be beautifully summed up with a single index chart: that of the S&P 100, shown below. The bull market ended when the wedge was broken (red arrow) and now we’re at the very top of the recent range (green tint), just waiting for the damned thing to weaken. And so……..we wait.