Category Archives: Long-Term

A Modest Proposal

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SPX gapped up hard over 1874/5 resistance on Friday morning, and if that had held then that would have been a very bullish breakaway gap. Instead SPX made a very marginal new high before failing hard and filling the gap, and that was not at all bullish. If bears can follow through this week then there will be a very real possibility that the Spring high was made on Friday slightly earlier than usual. (more…)

The Market Owes You Nothing

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Note from Tim: My long-time colleague “molecool” did a post on his Evil Speculator blog that I thought was outstanding. Although I am somewhat called on the carpet (and rightly so), his post is written with class and plenty of wisdom. I appreciate mole posting it here………

Yesterday Tim Knight wrote a candid post marking the fifth anniversary of the ongoing bull market. Actually to be more precise he not so surprisingly called it ‘this insane, interminable, agonizing bull market‘. Now given my reputation for dishing out generous servings of tough love you may expect me to post a scathing retort criticizing him for clinging to his bearish stance all through what I believe will be remembered as the most significant bull market in our lifetime. Well, yes and no. (more…)

Primary Patterns Weekend Update

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All cyclical bull markets on SPX since 1923 have formed one of three primary patterns to define the bull market, and signal when that bull market has topped or is topping out. Those three primary patterns are a rising wedge, channel or megaphone (broadening wedge). I looked at this in detail in a post on 29th June last year, which you can see here. Generally speaking that pattern will run from the beginning to the end of that cyclical bull market. (more…)

Max Headroom Today 1870-5

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After a couple more exploratory pinocchios through 50 hour MA support at the open yesterday morning SPX took the green pill and broke back up through the ES 50 hour MA. I was grumbling on Wednesday morning about the lack of a clear support trendline for this move up, and even though the bears ended up getting their clocks cleaned (yet again) yesterday, my urgently required support trendline has now been established as I now have rising channels from the Feb low on both SPX and Dow. This will give us a clear marker for when this move is topping out, which as I have mentioned, may be very soon. SPX 60min chart: (more…)

SPX Primary Pattern Update

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I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)