Let us all bask for a moment in the ever present glow of Procter & Gamble, which must be one of the most incredible stocks of all time. In this frothy market of ours, this maker of laundry soaps and dishwashing liquid sports a P/E of about 25, which back in the day was the sort of level reserved for high-tech companies. Anyway, the great crashes of the past few decades are hardly blips in the ascent of this monster.
Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…
S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support. Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap. We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.
In my recent momo update I was quite adamant about the increasing odds of a major market correction. Since then we’ve seen a further increase in spasmodic intra-day gyrations across the board, fueled by a mix of low participation bot trading, heightened emotions and a constant stream of contradicting market rumors (e.g. Deutsche Bank). The trading lair has been in defcon 3 mode for a while now which clearly affects our daily trading activities. (more…)
I wasn’t planning a post here today but I have more time than I expected this morning, and I didn’t manage to do the AAPL post I was planning yesterday, so I’m going to combine them both into a single post here this morning.
I’m rolling into the December contract over the weekend, so if you’ve rolled already then I’ve put the spread between the September and December contracts on each of the ES, NQ & TF charts below. All three charts were done and posted last night for subscribers at theartofchart.net.
At the time of writing all the key support levels that I was looking for at the time I did these charts are being tested. ES has made the 61.8% fib retrace and is testing the monthly pivot at 2168 (2161.5 on ES Dec). NQ has made the double double target at 4783, and is now testing the monthly pivot at 4763 (4759 on NQ Dec). TF has made the obvious 38.2% fib retrace at 1249/50 (1245 on TF Dec). These are big support levels, and given the timing on the cycle windows I’m expecting a reversal back up to new highs here.
I was chatting to a trader friend at the end of last week and he was telling me that many were now looking for a major bull breakout on SPX from here, and I think I’ll show in my post today one strong reason to think that’s very unlikely to happen. That reason is based on what has been happening at the weekly upper band over the last three weeks, which historically has been a very solid indicator that short term upside is limited and that a minimum 4%+ retracement is close. (more…)