One of the most frequent guests in the world of financial media is the “commodity king” Dennis Gartman. In spite of his moniker, he chimes in far more on equities than commodities, and his nearly daily appearances on Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, the trade show circuit, or whoever else will have him, have made him a glowing success story. At least if you measure success by being repeatedly invited back to share market opinions.
As has been pointed out ad nauseam in the comments section of many a blog (particularly ZeroHedge), Mr. Gartman, in spite of his efforts, appears to be wrong far more often than right. Many would say his percentage of being wrong is something approaching 100%, although my own informal analysis puts the figure at a kinder 70% or so.
Oh, and allow me to say this before going further: those of you who feel it clever to comment that people should just do the opposite or whatever Gartman says, or that there should be a triple-inverse Gartman Fund – – you should know the identical comment has been made, oh, thousands of times already, so what may seem clever and saucy to you is, in fact, tired and boring. So save your typing, because the thought you just had isn’t original.
This is the fifth time I’ve recommended the documentary Man on Wire to Slopers. Since I’ve been somewhat ill lately, I watched it again – probably for the 12th time – and I again must say how valuable it is to take in this flawless piece of art. Absolutely captivating and engrossing. If you have Netflix, it’s on there, and here’s the trailer otherwise:
I am a big movie buff (some of you may remember I’ve even written a screenplay – – so, umm, any movie producers out there, drop me a line). When I love a movie, I’ll watch it a dozen times or more. Here on Slope, we’ve had some lively discussions about great movies, but one of the classics I never got around to watching was The Shawshank Redemption, even though it is consistently near the top of any list of great films.
Today I watched it, and I enjoyed it. I now understand why people like it so much. However, I was struck by the similarities between the movie and one of my favorites from my childhood, Escape From Alcatraz, which came out about fifteen years before Shawshank.
I’m going to start with a tale from about 180 years ago. In the early 1840s, a religious leader named William Miller believed the second coming of Jesus was foretold in the Bible with mathematical accuracy, and using a myriad of verses and tidbits from the Bible, he sought to compute as closely as possible when exactly J.C. was going to come back.
At first, he didn’t offer anything very exact:
Using an interpretive principle known as the day-year principle, Miller, along with others, interpreted a prophetic “day” to read not as a 24-hour period, but rather as a calendar year. Miller became convinced that the 2,300-day period started in 457 B.C. with the decree to rebuild Jerusalem by Artaxerxes I of Persia. His interpretation led him to believe and promote the year 1843. Despite the urging of his supporters, Miller never announced an exact date for the expected Second Advent. But he did narrow the time period to sometime in the Jewish year 5604, stating: “My principles in brief, are, that Jesus Christ will come again to this earth, cleanse, purify, and take possession of the same, with all the saints, sometime between March 21, 1843 and March 21, 1844.” (more…)
Slope, as you might suppose, is my favorite blog on the web. My second favorite, however, is ZeroHedge, and I’ve been an avid and daily reader for its entire existence.
Because ZH has been steadfastly bearish since its creation in January 2009 (which, interestingly, was pretty much the exact almost-to-the-day bottom of equities in general), the standard bromide out there is: “The bear market won’t start until ZeroHedge shuts down.”
Well, look, that’s NEVER going to happen. It’s far too successful a site. I obviously have no clue what their financials are, but they’ve got to be making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year (at least) on ad revenue, so they’re not just going to turn the switch off. (more…)
With cryptos in a bloody free-fall, I thought it might be instructive to look back at what they were saying a month ago, when Bitcoin futures were launched at almost $21,000. Let’s take a look at the predictions of experts and self-proclaimed crypto-geniuses.