Category Archives: Metals

Gold’s “Bearish Bulls” Addressed, Now What?

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[as to the article’s title, I don’t have a firm, paint-by-numbers answer, but I surely do have strategy]

An NFTRH subscriber named Joe, who is a former fund guy and current chart cranking, idea generating maniac (←said with admiration) came up with the term “bearish bulls” recently, by which he meant that a whole lot of people were looking down in the gold sector, especially heading into this week as the dreaded ‘GDXJ rebalance’ and then next week’s FOMC loomed.

On the former, some bounce opportunities were created in oversold companies involved in the rebalance (with bearish bulls’ short covering providing the accelerant) and on the latter, I very much expect the Fed to raise the Funds Rate next week; and so does the futures market. From CME Group

fed funds rate futures

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Gold Miners in 2017 Whipsaw

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Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016.

hui

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Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?

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Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday May 13 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.netWithout fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned.  Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months.

As for me, well, since I was taught at a young age not to “ASSUME,” I only listen to price and try to ignore emotion as much as humanly possible.  For this reason, I rely on my analysis to make decisions, as relying upon emotion often puts you on the wrong side of the market at the exact worst time. (more…)

Metals Bottoming In The Upcoming Week?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday May 6 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net Last week, I noted that we still likely have lower levels to strike in this complex, but that I expect the market to set up a bottom very soon.  I still maintain that expectation as I write this.

In my last weekend update, I noted that we still needed to complete waves 3, 4 and 5 in this (c) wave of wave (2) in the GDX.   We now have the minimal number of waves in place to the downside to consider it complete.   However, we did not strike our ideal target of 20.31, where (a) would equal (c), nor did we see a full 5 waves up off the lows we struck this past week.   So, since we do not have any confirmation that a bottom has, in fact, been struck, it leaves the door open for the market to still strike our target.

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Metal Mania

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Gold has been in a general downtrend for nearly six years now. There have been spurts here and there, of course, and those who play the leveraged instruments (DUST, JDST, etc.) in the right direction have been able to make fortunes (or get ground into hamburger). Let’s take a quick look at a few SlopeCharts of what’s happening out there.

First there is the junior miners. Short-term, this is on the low end of a descending channel, meaning that we could get a bounce higher in the days ahead. Longer-term, however, this trendline break is severe. I don’t think any bounce will get GDXJ any more than a few points.

0507-gdxj

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