Category Archives: Metals

HUI Timing Boxes

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In the previous post it was mentioned that the 2013-2014 would-be bottoming grind in HUI has been almost exactly the duration of the 2010-2011 topping grind. Here is a visual to put with that statement.

hui

The current yellow box is an exact duplicate of the 2010/11 box, which came with an over bought MACD crossed down. The breakdown candle implies that September would be the month that a break UP candle comes into play if this relationship has any predictive power.

Taking it further, as also noted in the previous post, the Ukraine noise does not help the sector and indeed could hurt in the short-term, because it keeps the wrong gold bugs on the tout. So NFTRH keeps open some minor downside targets.

Taking it further still, those downside targets would end up being buying opportunities if gold’s macro fundamentals start to improve, which despite the emails I get to the contrary, really has not happened yet beyond a few ongoing positives. But it had not happened yet in 2000 either.

Gold Hatred and a Long-Winded TA Screed

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We are operating to parameters on a would-be gold sector bottoming process, which has been a year+ long grind (‘grind is good’ as it absolutely ruins peoples’ nerves over time) and which by the way, everyone sees now as either a final bottom or a consolidation before the final and spirit destroying wipe out, depending on their Team’s hopes and aspirations (bull or bear).

About a year ago NFTRH projected two possibilities (within the context that it was only in the realm of potential) and they were a ‘W’ bottom or failing that (it promptly failed) an Inverted Head & Shoulders on the HUI. Today a new pattern has joined the IH&S and it is a Symmetrical Triangle, which would be a consolidation before the final crash. (more…)

A Dangerous Triangle

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As an owner of physical precious metals, I’ve been chagrined to see the weakness in this area over the past month or so. Today we got some relief, but I’ve got to say, gold needs to hold above the trendline I’ve pointed out, or else we could be in for a very nasty resumption of the tumble. That’s a well-formed triangle, and we’ve got to stay within its confines.

0826-gld

HUI, Gold & Silver; Monthly Charts

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Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.

Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.

While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views. (more…)

Gold’s Apparent Channel

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Gold has been somewhat puzzling since the July 14 drop, but I think I’ve teased out an intermediate-term ascending channel. Simply stated, gold needs to stay above its recent lows to keep this important channel intact for those of us bullish on precious metals. (NOTE: I wrote this post last night, long before gold’s outstanding pop today, so, errr, take that into account).

0806-gc

Death of the Dollar? Gold is an Inflation Hedge? Really?

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[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301's opening segment. Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article... not you Slope, which I know will politely tolerate my ramblings :-) ) feel free to just skip the article. You will not get what you are looking for. The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]

Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).

usd.daily

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