Category Archives: Metals

Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun

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See edit at end, adding in the favorable gold and silver CoT.

We have been expecting a seasonal rally in gold, silver and the miners off of a bottom due in either December or January, as is typical of the sector. I’ve marked up Sentimentrader‘s seasonal gold pattern to show the secondary low made (on average over 30 years) in December and the January ramp up that follows (on average).

gold seasonal pattern

But we’ve long contended that noise about global strife (geopolitics), inflation and most of all China/India demand need to be tuned out and the larger component planets of the Macrocosm ™ need to be respected in order to call a real bull market phase in gold and gold stocks. (more…)

Gold Fingered

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You could have put money into anything – – anything at all – – over the past six years and done better than gold. Real estate………stocks……….kitty litter. Gold has been a total piece of garbage, and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that gold bugs have finally up to “here” with the so-called precious metal and are just jumping over to cryptos. Here’s this miserable piece of crap:

slopechart_GLD

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Gold & Silver Bulls, Don’t Give Up Yet

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The “sentiment” in the metals complex now ranges from indifferent to very bearish.  In fact, I am seeing many just posting how they are just fed up with the metals complex, and just want to move on.  And, that is often the time when fireworks are seen.  So, I think it is prudent that we remain on our toes right now, just as many seem to giving up.

With silver’s direct drop lower this week, along with the potential that the GDX may hold its 21 region support, we may be able to maintain a more immediate bullish perspective.  However, I still want to note that it will still take several months until the next break out set up is ready to go.  But, what I am about to present is the best-case scenario we can view on the charts at this time.  And, they need some serious confirmation in the coming weeks.

First, I will go through the more immediate bullish potentials, as presented in silver, GDX and GLD.  Then I will discuss the more bearish potential, and what can trigger that. (more…)