Category Archives: Metals

Gold CoT Improving, But…

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Gold’s CoT data predictably improved again this week, but here I think some discussion is needed just in case it starts to get hyped too much.

Below is the CoT on an improving trend of Commercial short covering and large Speculator long reduction. Okay, that’s good. But here is the part where the hype needs to be tuned out. The CoT tends to degrade (i.e. trend in a bearish direction during gold rallies) and improve (i.e. trend in a positive direction during gold corrections). The charts of CoT and gold below are set over the same 1 year time frames…




4 Safe Haven Investments to Replace Swissy & Gold

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Trying not to pre-judge the title as flat out stupid, let’s proceed to the article…

Four safe-haven investments to replace Swiss francs and gold –MarketWatch

Where to park your money until the next crisis blows over

Greece is on the edge of a dramatic exit from the euro EURUSD, -0.09% . The Russians are meddling in the Ukraine again. The oil price CLH5, -0.46% has been hammered, creating an arc of instability across the Middle East. The global economy is, as is so often the case, poised on the edge of another crisis. If it happens, money will start fleeing to safe havens, somewhere where it can be safely parked to ride out the turmoil.


Gold & US Banks; a Critical Juncture

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piggybankIt’s all about confidence, right? Right.

In 2011, when the commodity and ‘inflation’ trades blew out, the Federal Reserve was completely discredited, with gold bugs out front poking them in the eye with taunts of “Helicopter Ben”. Markets rebelled against the Fed by sending silver to $50 and commodities in general to an all-time high.

Today, we have come 180° as market participants the world over have been conditioned to revere policy made from on high. Herds being what they are, every utterance from the jawbones of these former buffoons is respected in the form of instantaneous market movement. It’s as if everyone believes the Fed is in total control.

One indicator that this confidence is coming unwound would be a breakdown in the banks. They are right at key… as in critical… as in bull market… support. Not surprisingly, gold has taken on an inverse stance to the Pigs. This should be interesting.

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Worth a Shot?

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I confess that I am intrigued by DUST, the triple-bearish-on-miners ETF. It is banging against its trendline which, in the past, has been a very reliable bottom. Looking at GDX itself, it doesn’t seem slam-dunk bearish, so I’m actually not going to buy DUST. But I at least wanted to share this chart, since it seems like an interesting speculative play.


Gold Rush or Dump?

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A break & hold below 1270/60 on Gold could send it tumbling (quite hard this time) to 1150 or lower (ultimately 1000).

1314 is the near-term resistance level to overcome before running into major resistance at 1550, in my opinion, (based on my analysis of price, Fibonacci, channel, and volume profile data), as shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below.

Ashes to Ashes

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The triple-bearish-on-gold-miners ETF, symbol DUST, has a rather interesting property of bouncing hard off the trendline I’ve shown below. If this is true, it would suggest miners are in for some weakness ahead. Don’t get me wrong – – I’m a precious metals booster! – – but I wanted to at least point out this interesting phenomenon.