Category Archives: Metals

Bonds and Related Indicators, From NFTRH 490

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This morning’s post highlighting Jim Grant’s bond market/interest rate views (by way of Heisenberg) prompts me to reproduce publicly NFTRH 490‘s short bond segment. I may be known as the guy calling yields to decline but in context I am the guy calling for caution at a potential limit area who has appropriately called for yields to rise and decline all through the bond market’s recent history. It is important not to get lost in bias or dogma.

Bonds and Related Indicators

Long-term yields lurk just below our targets of 3.3% (30yr) and 2.9% (10yr). The yields on the short end remain relatively strong as evidenced by the flattening yield curve. This remains a positive macro picture (whether manipulated or not, my job is to play it straight and convey the message of the bond market, not to wear my tin foil hat).

treasury yields (more…)

Gold Ratios; Beware the Inflationists

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Too many gold bugs are either still pimping the ‘inflation trade’ or digitally pleasuring other gold bugs with predictions based on inflation. From my favorite example of this behavior just yesterday (he of the “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge” for GDX that failed into a miserable bear market extension a few years ago). Just yesterday…

“I’ve announced a long term target for GDX of $15,000. That really isn’t very high… given the strong inflation numbers that I am projecting for America in the years ahead.”

I don’t use the guy’s name because he is not a big public figure like Dennis Gartman or Doug Casey. But he is highly visible within the gold cult err, “community” and he uses a lot of !!!!! when trying to hammer his points home to greedy gold bugs (the only kind, I assume, who take him seriously). Exclamation points are a sign of someone who really… really, I mean REALLY wants you to get their point!! (ha ha ha). (more…)

A Few Words on the Gold Sector

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As the long-term interest rate Amigo continues upward, the anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ continues onward and more and more gold bug writers emerge from the woodwork, it is time for a little antidote to the inevitable pitches and hype to come.

Everything is playing to script and with this little pullback to a higher low in the miners being resolved in the favored direction, the writer bugs are going to further their bullish message and try to get more reader bugs to follow their guidance. But absolutely nothing has changed.

We caught the seasonal rally amid much disgust by writer and reader bugs, and it has simply not yet concluded. Nothing more to read into it than that. While I think 2018 is likely to see the confirmation of a new bull market, a selling opportunity is probably upcoming amid gold bug bravado and pomp (oms) because the fundamentals are not yet in order. (more…)

The Macro View: Amigos Ride On

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As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).

When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.

Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well. (more…)