With both Japan and Europe out of the way, the FOREX markets have moving fractionally to offer the US dollar a little strength. Of most interest to me is the Yen, which itself is off by about a quarter of a percent, which is letting gold slip away from all that overhead supply it has.
NOTE FROM TIM: The item below was written by Avi at Elliott Wave Trader. Speaking for myself, I am bearish on gold (and even moreso on miners). I am short GDXJ and have a long position in JDST. Here, on the other side of the coin, is Avi’s point of view…………
First published on Sat Jul 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: While I would love to suggest that we have begun the next larger degree rally already, the market has not provided me with strong indications that is going to be the case just yet. While there are many indications that the market may have already bottomed, there are just as many indications that we may see the dreaded one more lower low before a lasting bottom may be seen. But, I believe an investor should be preparing now for an impending rally which I believe will likely take hold over the coming weeks.
Now, whether we see that lower low or not, I want to highlight something of which you should definitely take notice, especially if you are bearish this complex. Please take a look at the attached daily GDX chart.
Gold has been bouncing higher for a little more than a week, and my view is that, as it approaches its gap at $117.95, it will reverse lower. Whether it’ll reach the gap or not at all remains to be seen, but I’ve shorted it this morning with a stop at $118.
This “amateur cyclist’s” chart (I am anything but a cycles analyst) of the S&P 500 shows that the 12 month marker (C12) meant exactly nothing as the market remained firmly on trend, after brief pokes down in April and May. We noted that C12 was a lesser indicator than the 30 month cycle, which has coincided with some pretty significant changes (+/- a few months). That cycle (C30) is coming due at the end of the summer. Will it mean anything? Well, this market eats top callers for breakfast, lunch, dinner and midnight snacks. But it is worth knowing about to a lucid and well-armed market participant.
I was initially going to try to write something about equities (specifically, the ES), but Good Lord, what on earth is there to say except…………endless abortions. What I mean by that is that every time it seems we’re set up to fall (see green tint), voila, we abort the breakdown and Yellen saves the day again. Boring, annoying, and frustrating……….