My wife and I had some shocking news this morning when she was told that the husband of an old friend of hers was stabbed to death by a random nut in a pub last night. I didn’t know him that well but we’d spent some time with them and he was a very decent, hard working, family man who leaves a wife and two children behind. Just incredible, and a reminder that very bad things can happen to good people, and that people don’t always make it to three score years and ten even nowadays. After two close friends of mine died within three months of each other two years ago that is now three people in my circle all dead from various causes in their early to mid-40s. Very bad luck and extremely thought-provoking. (more…)
Miners are having a pretty lame day; I made a nice little profit on my GDX short. One chart in particular that seems awfully vulnerable to prolonged weakness is this one:
Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.
US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the ‘real’ price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.
It is easy to say ‘I am bullish in the big picture’ (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player. (more…)
The only two kinds of TA that I refer to every day are classical charting, mainly my own, and Elliot Wave. For EW I don’t of course use Prechter and EWI, as Prechter’s analytical skills have long been eclipsed by his faith that we are in some kind of apocalyptic ending move which is the climax of a massive 5 point move up from 1500 AD, or 500 AD, or whatever. I’m not one to mock the religious beliefs of another, but faith has no place at all in analysis, so while Prechter stands on his lonely mountain top waiting for the end of the world as we know it, I’ve been ignoring him and watching the calls of my very capable EW chartist friends Pug and Alphahorn. (more…)
I’m not going to be saying much today as I’m not feeling well. Fortunately it’s Friday so I may well call it a day early today and go back to bed. If I trade at all today I’m going to be relying on the rest of the intraday trading team in the Princeton Trader trading room to do my thinking for me.
SPX closed 4.5 handles under the upper bollinger band yesterday. This doesn’t mean that the upper band ride has ended but it’s important that the upper band at least be tested today and that support at yesterday’s low at 1882.65 be respected today. If SPX has a strong day then I will be expecting the upper band to close today in the 1896-1900 range. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Yesterday morning I gave two options for the day and the first was that the SPX ride the daily upper band upwards. SPX closed a quarter point under the upper band so that was the option taken, and an upper band ride can last for several days, rising with the upper band at an average gain of 5 to 7 points per day. If we do the same again today then we should expect the close to be close to 1896/7 SPX. Strong support is at the middle band, currently at 1866. SPX daily chart:
The gold sector is peopled by a high concentration of contrary indicators because it is a relatively (to the vast world of equities and bonds) small market that offers refuge from some of the damaging aspects of the spectrum of investment products that are supported by the manipulation of interest rates and printed (and digitally created) money supplies. Thus, gold has moral high ground if an asset can be thought to have morality.
More accurately, the people bullish on and promoting gold take high moral ground and that is where the emotional power comes from in this market. This power feeds upon the desires of regular people to not suffer the consequences of the ‘evil’ actions of those running a system that many do not agree with. Readers of this site know of course that I certainly don’t agree with the setting and manipulation of interest rates by decree of man (and woman) in service to engineering desired outcomes in financial markets. (more…)