Category Archives: Metals

More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response

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By Biiwii

Anyone who has been bearish on gold for the last 4 years has been right. They have been right in Euros and though the trend appears to have been gently changing over the last year or two, they have been right in Canada & Aussie (i.e. commodity currencies) dollars as well. Certainly, they have been right that gold as measured in most global stock markets has been (and remains) bearish.

They have also been right in that gold as a hedge against the kind of inflation that global policy makers have promoted non-stop for years now, has utterly failed. And for gold as an insurance and value asset, a small phase like 4 years is like a blip. Yet still, so many people throw their hats into the ring on gold, constantly micro-managing its every twist and turn.

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Macrocosm

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Below is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 353. After this theoretical exercise we got down to nuts and bolts analysis, which provided logical ‘bounce’ targets (provided a bounce is indeed what is in play) for Gold, Silver and HUI, a compelling trend in the Commitments of Traders data and more talk about the trends that will need to be in place before a favorable macrocosmic environment is in place for the gold sector.

Not one to obsess on the gold sector in a vacuum, NFTRH also covered US and global stock markets, commodities, macro indicators and currencies as usual.

Macrocosm

macrocosm

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Skid Row

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A reader pointed out to me that the ratio of the gold bugs index ($HUI in ProphetCharts) versus gold (GLD) had never been lower. I looked, and it actually had been lower back when gold was around $300 per ounce, but there’s no doubt that the chart is very, very stretched to the downside. I’m still counting on, and positioned for, a bounce in precious metals and the companies that mine them in the near-term.

0725-hig

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