Category Archives: Metals


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goldzilla“History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man” –Blue Oyster Cult, Godzilla

I would have written off the gold sector long ago in its ongoing bear market had I thought for one moment that gold’s utility as insurance against the acts of monetary madmen/women in high places had been compromised in any way. On the contrary, the monetary metal is simply having its price marked down in a bear market while its value, especially given its current price and all that has gone on in the financial system over the last 3 years remains just fine.

Indeed gold, an element dug out of the ground for centuries, once as money and now as a marker to sound money systems will one day be shown to be a calm oasis from the fallout to global monetary shenanigans currently ongoing. At least it would be an oasis to those who have valued it as such. It is going to feel like a giant dinosaur (minus the kitsch value) ripping through a city built on paper to the multitudes who have taken the bait on the current too big to fail global inflationary operations. They will fail. Timing is the only question. (more…)

Gold Sector Review

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Below is a summary of some of the aspects we follow in NFTRH to gauge a future investment stance on the gold sector. It is much more complex than simply hearing dogma that seems to make sense and then holding on for dear life…


The hype is dying. 10 years of inflation hysterics have gone down the drain even as global policy makers pull out inflationary bazookas and use them at the slightest hint of economic trouble. The BoJ’s recent action was just the latest and most striking in its timing. Global markets were bouncing within correction mode and the Yen had just pinged a key resistance level. The BoJ then blew the Yen up with policy designed to at once reward risk takers and asset holders and mercilessly punish the Japanese people, renowned for the ethic of saving. (more…)

From Crazytown to Bet The House

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My main trading partner is Mike Vacchi, who I mention regularly. We trade every day in his room at Princeton Trader. Mike has a system that he has been using for ten years or so to identify levels where the market is either extremely overbought or oversold, and they are set at distances from the 45 day pivot. That is at 1942.13 today and we have now spent an unprecedented (in the last ten years) five days now trading around the ‘Crazytown’ level at 70 points over the pivot. At 80 points over it is the ‘Bet The House’ level and ES hit that overnight and traded there awhile. That level can be overshot, but rarely for more than a few hours without a significant retracement starting. I am short from Bet the House and actively looking for that retracement here. (more…)

A Case for Gold and Gold Mining Stocks

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First, a thanks to Tim for letting me do my first guest post.…….

A Case for Gold and Gold Mining Stocks, by John Chinnock

Now that the entire world hates gold and gold mining stocks, I wanted to make a case for why they just might be an amazing long-term buy at these levels. I should preface this by saying first that I am not a typical gold bug. I do not believe that the U.S. dollar is going to zero, or that hyperinflation is coming. Actually, if I had to own any currency, I would favor the U.S. dollar over most others. However, I still am a gold bull. Let me list some points on why. My arguments here will be technical and based on historical data rather than fundamentals. There are valid fundamentals for the bullish case in gold, but that is beyond the scope of what I will discuss here. (more…)

In Between Daze

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SPX declined modestly yesterday, bottoming out at 2001, just above the 1995-2000 target range I posted in the morning, and has recovered strongly overnight. As I said yesterday I’m not seeing anything to strongly suggest a high here and am looking at trendlines in the 2040 and 2060 areas for resistance. If we see a break below 1992 today I may reconsider that view. SPX daily chart:

141105 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs (more…)