Category Archives: Metals

Stocks and Gold; Macro Pivot Window Upon Us

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On August 11 the potential and reasoning for anticipated pivots in the US stock market and the gold sector were noted in this article: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold

As for the stock market, several reasons were put forward in support of a 2nd half of September through Q4 danger period, for a correction (no need yet to talk bear market because that would be pure promotion of an agenda). Please note that standard technical analysis was not among those reasons. The stock market was then and is now, in an uptrend across all important time frames.

The reasons for the correction view noted in the article ranged from the S&P 500’s 30 month cycle, to the Fed’s Funds cycle and its proximity to the 2yr yield (this has not yet made a bear signal) to the US dollar’s potential to rally (still waiting on that one) to a rough seasonal patch that begins in mid-September. Well, today is September 15, da boyz is back from da Hamptins and the rest is up to the market’s nature to take its course. (more…)

The “Squeeze” in the Gold Miners ETF

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Price on the following GDX Monthly chart is currently being squeezed in between major resistance of a 23.6% Fib retracement level and a recent breakout above a long-term downtrend line.

We’ll see if it continues to rally — maybe to 30.00 or even 33.00 — but there is a lot of overhead price supply, so that could be quite a long shot. I’d like to see Money Flow firm up on any further advancement, as that indicator is currently in downtrend on this longer timeframe.

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The Recent Metals Action Is “Causing” Me To Change My Life

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I have made a ground-breaking discovery this past week.  It is so earth shattering, that it will literally change the course of my life, and may cause you to change yours as well.  Let me explain.

Maybe you believe that the stock market volatility was the reason the metals rose?  Well, the S&P500 is within 2% of its all-time highs, yet the metals have continued to rally alongside the market.

And, maybe you believe that North Korea is the reason that the metals have rallied?   Well, I have dealt with that issue last week, so I do not have to re-address it here again.  But, suffice it to say that anyone who has really followed geopolitical events will know that gold has moved in completely opposite directions during such tensions through history, and they will never provide directional guidance for the metals. (more…)

Copper, Oil, Gold and US Stocks: Big Picture Status

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Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading.

First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral resistance at a handy 38% Fib retrace.**

copper (more…)

Bullion Buffoon

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It wasn’t that long ago that when I felt like it was a good time to buy gold (that is, real gold you could hold in your hands), I would go out and buy some. But after a while, gold wouldn’t be doing that well, and I’d sort of realize that there was really no scenario in which it would be useful to me (e.g. there would never come a day that everyone was starving since Whole Foods would ONLY accept gold, and I’d be able to feed my family due to my good planning). So I’d dump it.

I thought I’d show when I bought and sold bullion, thinking it would reveal Gartman-like levels of bad timing. It turns out it wasn’t THAT bad. It was sort of bad – – buffoon level, I guess – – but nothing horrendous. Below I marked in green the buy points and in magenta the sell points.

0905-gold

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GOLD Approaching Neckline of Reverse Head & Shoulders

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It looks like a a massive reverse Head & Shoulders formation could play out nicely if GOLD can break and hold above its neckline (and converging 40% Fibonacci retracement level) around 1376, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

Longer term, we could see an eventual run up to converging major price and 60% Fib retracement resistance around 1600. Watch for, not only a continuing rise on the Momentum indicator, but also an increase in its velocity, should we see such a sustained neckline breakout, as confirmation of bullish commitment.

Gold and Miners Finally Bust Out

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As I wrote to my PLUS members on August 24th regarding junior miners, “..…as I look at the miners, I’m seeing signs of life. If you believe the breakout is meaningful and want to amp up your commitment, a good way to do it would by via the triple-bullish ETF symbol below, which itself has had a clean breakout from a rather long downtrend.

Well, it didn’t take long for this to blossom, as gold has broken out smartly………

0828-gld

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