Category Archives: Metals

Triple-Bottom Bounce on Gold After Re-test of Critical Support Level

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As shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart of GOLD below, price has bounced this week [as of today (Thursday)] at a triple-bottom major support level of 1180, which began in June of 2013.

This critical support level converges with the bottom of the weekly Bollinger Band, along with the lower edge of a large declining channel (which began after the all-time high of 1923.70 was made during the week of September 5th, 2011).

Failure to hold above the critical 1180 support level could see a much larger decline ahead, possibly to the 1000 level, as shown on the next 20-Year Weekly chart. Bulls will need to re-take 1300 and hold that level before we likely see any further serious commitment to, ultimately, reverse this long-standing downtrend on the weekly timeframe. (more…)

Gold; a Simpleton’s View

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First off, if you have an interest in the price of gold and have not already done so, I highly recommend you check out Steve Hochberg’s 2-part Elliott Wave video presentation on gold (I want to disclose that signing up for Club EWI brings a small commission to yours truly ;-) ). With all his zigs, zags, waves and patterns he ends up at the same place I do with my simple version. I may use less cluttered methods, but I find this stuff very interesting.

With markets at a key juncture, the US dollar over bought (but bullish), the precious metals, commodities and increasingly, global markets over sold but bearish and US stocks acting as if October 2014 could at least recall memories of October 2008, I want to try to weave all this together around the simplistic monthly chart of gold, which is the asset that would provide liquidity for asset market refugees if the macro really were to get very negative. (more…)

Stealth Gold Stock Rally

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Well, the headlines are rightfully bearish for gold, silver and the major precious metals stock indexes, ETFs and senior gold miners. The technical damage is real. Today’s burst could be and probably is just short covering. [edit; post was mostly written before the end of day flop]

But improbably enough, there is a stealth uptrend going on in certain royalties, miners, developers and explorers. Believe me, if you could hear me talk instead of write you would not hear anything resembling desperation in my tone. That is because I have worked hard during this bear market to manage risk, stay strong and out of the bear’s way. So I am not talking any sort of a book here other than my biggest picture view (an economic contraction environment that ultimately benefits the counter cyclical gold sector), which could still be out on the horizon. (more…)

Two Down, One to Go

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SPX broke down hard yesterday and closed near the lows, giving bears their first complete day in a while. SPX broke back below the daily middle band and, as long as we don’t see a daily close back above it, the next obvious targets are the daily lower band at 1985 and the 50 DMA at 1976. The band pinch here means that it is very likely that SPX will start an extended band ride in the near future. The bulls had a shot at starting an upper band ride last week and couldn’t sustain it. If bears can get SPX to the lower band then they get a shot at starting a lower band ride instead. SPX daily chart:

140923 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs

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