Category Archives: Metals

The Complex is NOT in Alignment Yet

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by Avi Gilburt,

First published Sat Apr 15 for members of  With the break-out over the prior week’s high, we now have structures in gold and silver off the March lows which can be considered strongly impulsive.  And, as I have noted many times in the past, if there is a reasonable bullish interpretation to be seen in the metals complex, I will certainly be adopting that as my primary perspective.

However, while GLD and silver can be counted as just completing their 5 wave structures, I want to warn anyone who is going to attempt to trade downside that we are setting up in the heart of a 3rdwave.  That being the case, there is potential for the market to continue to melt up in the heart of that 3rd wave, which is actually the position we see in the GDX currently.

Silver seems to be chart that is most suggestive of needing a pullback in a wave 2.  We just barely held support last week in a 4th wave, and made a higher high in this past week’s action, which has now given us 5 waves up off the March lows.  That strongly suggests that silver “should” see a pullback, which I am counting as a wave 2.


It May Take More Time For A True Breakout in Metals

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By Avi Gilburt,

First published on Saturday April 8 for members of   I have read in many places on the Internet that the metals have certainly broken out.  But, as you know, I am not quite convinced.  Now, that does not mean I am bearish.  It just means I still think there could be more downside seen before a true break out is seen.

As I have been noting for the last few weeks, silver has been providing us with the clearest of the patterns.  And, last week, I noted that, under both patterns, silver still looks like it needs one more push higher before it is going to make its decision.  This past week, we got our push higher to complete what is best counted as a 3rd wave off the March lows.  But, as we know, 3 waves up does not constitute a bullish trend.  Rather, we need 5 waves up to complete.


Going for Gold

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Just as I was mystified last week that anybody believed the TrumpCare bill would pass, I’m equally mystified to read people touting precious metals miners as a “buy” these days. I think gold, and the miners in particular, are in trouble. I remain very long JDST, and I’ve been yammering to my Slope Plus readers about metals quite a lot lately. As long as the Japanese Yen more or less continues to weaken, I think gold bears will be rewarded.