Since I did my “short gold” post for Slope Plus members on February 8th (which turned out to be the exact peak), I’ve been anxiously watching both the metal and its miners. So far, so good, and it’ll get even better if we can violate the $1210 level (approximately) to the downside, which I’ve tinted below. That would break the uptrend and give us more momentum.
It looks like another day of record highs across the board for equities. I’ve become inured to it by now. I’m particularly focused on what oil is doing, since apparently the OPEC production cuts are enjoying nearly full compliance, which is compelling oil to make yet another trust at the top of its range. It simply cannot seem to escape this very tight range, and OPEC has at a minimum done a great job creating a rock-solid floor for oil.
Yesterday was clearly a good day to introduce my new Jack in the Box continuation/flag pattern. The double bottom broke down slightly and has then reversed back into a full test of 2299.40. The full ATH retest at 2300.99 is VERY close and should be tested today if we are going to see that full retest. SPX 60min chart:
Want to see something interesting? Here’s the chart of the USD/JPY forex cross-rate (black chart) married with gold (blue chart). The correlation seems about as close to -1 as you can get. As my Slope Plus subscribers know, I’ve got a hodgepodge of gold-oriented shorts, so it appears that USD/JPY is key to watch.
As the majority of the metals market seems to be awaiting a “pullback,” the metals market, like the equity market, has been quite stingy. But, as I noted in my mid-week update, “by no means am I going to say that I “expect” more of a pullback to be seen, as the minimal number of waves are in place right now to support a break out in the complex within the next few trading days.” I am still of the same perspective.
On Friday, I did an interview for a financial show, and prior to that interview, the interviewer me told me that most of their guests, who are normally bullish the metals complex, do not think that the metals are going to be breaking out anytime soon. In fact, he was quite surprised when I explained to him that I see a set-up which can ignite a strong rally in the metals complex at any time now.