Category Archives: Metals

SPX Cycles, Fed Funds and Gold

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This “amateur cyclist’s” chart (I am anything but a cycles analyst) of the S&P 500 shows that the 12 month marker (C12) meant exactly nothing as the market remained firmly on trend, after brief pokes down in April and May. We noted that C12 was a lesser indicator than the 30 month cycle, which has coincided with some pretty significant changes (+/- a few months). That cycle (C30) is coming due at the end of the summer. Will it mean anything? Well, this market eats top callers for breakfast, lunch, dinner and midnight snacks. But it is worth knowing about to a lucid and well-armed market participant.

spx cycles

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Gold’s Shift

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I was initially going to try to write something about equities (specifically, the ES), but Good Lord, what on earth is there to say except…………endless abortions. What I mean by that is that every time it seems we’re set up to fall (see green tint), voila, we abort the breakdown and Yellen saves the day again. Boring, annoying, and frustrating……….

0713-es

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Gold’s “Bearish Bulls” Addressed, Now What?

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[as to the article’s title, I don’t have a firm, paint-by-numbers answer, but I surely do have strategy]

An NFTRH subscriber named Joe, who is a former fund guy and current chart cranking, idea generating maniac (←said with admiration) came up with the term “bearish bulls” recently, by which he meant that a whole lot of people were looking down in the gold sector, especially heading into this week as the dreaded ‘GDXJ rebalance’ and then next week’s FOMC loomed.

On the former, some bounce opportunities were created in oversold companies involved in the rebalance (with bearish bulls’ short covering providing the accelerant) and on the latter, I very much expect the Fed to raise the Funds Rate next week; and so does the futures market. From CME Group

fed funds rate futures

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Gold Miners in 2017 Whipsaw

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Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016.

hui

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