Howdy from Georgetown, the charming college town near D.C. The weather is perfect here, and one of my beloved children is with me as we soak in the ambience. (I even got recognized on the street by a chap walking his beautiful dog, Lola.)
In between the soaking, though, there is, of course, trading. Crude oil continues to explode higher. Why did this headline not shock me?
I find it amusing how the mainstream media is blaming (or, as I would prefer to put it, crediting) Kim Jong Un’s nuclear test for the drop in equities on Friday. First of all, news of the nuclear test came out nearly an entire day before equities started weakening! In this day and age, reactions are instantaneous on the order of milliseconds. Indeed, I was reading about the nuclear test and the ES was green on Thursday night! So, as usual, the mainstream media is full of it.
And anyway, even though the leader of North Korea is quite evil, in some ways he seems a very sensible chap.
Over the course of the past seven years, I’ve had no shortage of charts and time cycles sent to me saying that once THIS thing happens (and you can fill in the blank as to what “this” might be) then the market will turn down hard and fall persistently. Well, “this” hasn’t made one bit of difference, at least not beyond a couple of days, for many years now, so I am understandably cynical (if you need proof, look no further than Brexit).
I will say, however, that there is a confluence of information I’m getting about the weeks ahead that I find interesting, even if it means a relatively brief downturn. I won’t divulge the information that’s been shared with me confidentially (and it’s not CIA stuff, folks; I just don’t like sharing charts that have been sent to me without the permission of the creator), but my confidence about this autumn is pretty good.