My wife and I had some shocking news this morning when she was told that the husband of an old friend of hers was stabbed to death by a random nut in a pub last night. I didn’t know him that well but we’d spent some time with them and he was a very decent, hard working, family man who leaves a wife and two children behind. Just incredible, and a reminder that very bad things can happen to good people, and that people don’t always make it to three score years and ten even nowadays. After two close friends of mine died within three months of each other two years ago that is now three people in my circle all dead from various causes in their early to mid-40s. Very bad luck and extremely thought-provoking. (more…)
Yesterday was a very dull trading day that almost achieved complete meaninglessness, avoided only because SPX held above the daily middle band all day, closing 12 points above the middle band. SPX is therefore consolidating above the daily middle band and the next obvious target on the daily chart is the daily upper band, now at 1897. SPX daily chart:
SPX made some progress towards the double-bottom target at 1873 on Thursday. That is in effect a retest of the last rally high at 1872.53 and is the last serious resistance between SPX and a test of the current highs. SPX 60min chart:
Yesterday morning SPX gapped over the 50 hour MA at 1843, double-bottom resistance at 1844, and the 50 DMA and falling channel resistance at 1847. Those held as support for the rest of the day and the opening gap didn’t fill, so as long as they hold as support this morning the next step is to proceed towards the double-bottom target at 1873, in effect a test of the last rally high at 1872.53. SPX 60min chart:
A reader wrote me this morning asking if the head and shoulders on General Motors was rendered moot due to its violation of the neckline (see green circle). I don’t think it has. What I’m watching as the neckline is the up-sloping trendline, whose violation would only occur in the vicinity of the red circle. I remain short, and today I augmented the position with June $35 puts.
The only two kinds of TA that I refer to every day are classical charting, mainly my own, and Elliot Wave. For EW I don’t of course use Prechter and EWI, as Prechter’s analytical skills have long been eclipsed by his faith that we are in some kind of apocalyptic ending move which is the climax of a massive 5 point move up from 1500 AD, or 500 AD, or whatever. I’m not one to mock the religious beliefs of another, but faith has no place at all in analysis, so while Prechter stands on his lonely mountain top waiting for the end of the world as we know it, I’ve been ignoring him and watching the calls of my very capable EW chartist friends Pug and Alphahorn. (more…)