SPX closed within one point of the weekly middle band on Friday so that very important support there held. While I am looking for some more downside I’m expecting that to hold again this week. SPX weekly chart:
SPX made a low at 2045 yesterday morning and has been chopping around since. There is much talk that the low is in but I doubt it. My 5 DMA stat is expecting a break below the 2039.69 low and we haven’t seen that yet, and I still have possible bull flag support in the 2030-5 area. If that isn’t the reversal area I’d be looking down rather than up for the next targets. SPX daily chart:
Well I said it would be a big break if my rising channel broke and well, here we are. SPX broke back below the daily middle band yesterday and closed at the test of main rising wedge support. That has broken down at the open and we are back to the stats I gave at the break back below the 5 DMA a few days ago, when I said that every similar break since the start of 2007 had resulted in a lower low before a higher high. I’m expecting that lower low under 2039.69 this week and most likely today. I’d add that the daily lower band is at 2040 so that really is the next obvious target. SPX daily chart:
I posted the chart below on twitter last night to show that the channel support that I posted as a target on Monday morning was tested at the close. I was concerned by that test being on the low ticks of the day, and we’ll have to see whether that holds this morning. On my main scenario we see a strong bounce from that support into new highs, very possibly this week. If we were to see a hard break down then I’d be looking for a very possible gap under channel support at the open today and at the moment at least, that seems unlikely. SPX 5min chart:
My near-term pattern and momentum work on Apple (AAPL) indicate that all of the action off of the March 19 high at 129.25 into last Friday’s low at 125.88 is a completed minor correction, within a still incomplete upleg off of the March 12 low at 121.63.
If accurate, that means AAPL should be nearing upside acceleration that hurdles 129.25 towards a retest of its all-time high at 133.66 (to 135.00) in the upcoming hours.
Article & chart by Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader.com.
Apologies for the very late post today. I had an appointment that overran badly & missed the open. That was annoying as I was short from the globex highs and missed the very well signalled low, but that’s the way it goes.
Was that the low for this retracement? Well it made the little double top target left over from yesterday, but fell well short of hitting rising channel support. That looks like unfinished business unless we see a strong break back up, and if that support is going to be hit on this retracement, then the ideal fib time/place hits would be the 2088 area at lunchtime today or the 2094 area tomorrow morning. If SPX breaks back up hard then this rising channel has evolved into a rising wedge and the next upside target is the same pattern resistance trendline, currently in the 2125-30 area, so already in the right target area to make the IHS target there. SPX 5min chart: