Yesterday was a tedious day that didn’t go far or decide anything. I’m still leaning bullish but short term ES is retracing after established negative 60min RSI divergence yesterday. I have a small double-top target at 1801.5 and have key support around the weekly pivot at 1796.20. This is the level below which the bear case will start to look interesting again. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Island reversal patterns don’t happen that frequently, but I spotted a terrific one today in Sherwin-Williams. I have shorted SHW with a stop-loss price of $187.99.
I posted a chart on twitter on Friday evening showing the move up from the lows last week, and showing the strong setup there to retest the highs today. The low on Friday morning retested the break over a double-bottom targeting the 1814 area, and by the close a rising channel from the lows had formed on SPX. While that rising channel holds I’d expect a retest of the highs by lunchtime today, as the channel support trendline is rising an impressive 18 points per trading day. If it breaks down then the double-bottom remains a strong setup as long as Friday’s low at 1796.81 holds. SPX 1min chart: (more…)
I have been out all morning and only have time for two charts today. The NFP figures this morning were a decent beat and the US unemployment rate is now back down to 7%. Even though the Fed is clearly very gun-shy about tapering they may well feel that if they still don’t taper now then they will lose a lot of their remaining credibility. (more…)
SPX tested the daily middle bollinger band hard yesterday but closed above it. My main target support level is at the daily lower bollinger band and to make that is going to require a close below the middle bollinger band, ideally this week but possibly as late as next Monday. Meanwhile this area is an important inflection point and I have both bull and bear scenarios in play here. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Just a quick post this morning as I’m still adjusting back to UK time and my presence is required at a school Xmas concert where my sons will be performing starting at the same time as RTH today. I’m going to have a quick look today at the trendline and bollinger band backdrop to the retracement this week. (more…)