I was saying on my twitter at lunchtime that the 70% option was a fail at weekly pivot resistance and the 50% retracement level on the NQ chart, and that duly delivered after a slightly nonplussed pause after the FOMC rate rise at 2pm as the market tried to work out whether such a heavily trailed announcement qualified as news and, if it did, whether such expected news could really be a credible reason for markets to react to it. Honestly I have no idea what the answers to those questions might be myself, but the setup favored the bears regardless and duly delivered the reversal at obvious resistance.
Key trendline support on the NDX charts is megaphone support currently in the 5650 area, and the near miss at the last test is suggesting strongly that will break on the next test. NDX 60min chart:
The decline on NDX on Friday was over 4% high to low intraday, and that was the most powerful one day decline that I’ve seen on an equity index in some years. I was talking on Thursday last week about the resistance trendlines on NDX and AMZN still being in doubt, and both were nicely clarified at Friday’s high. I also mentioned in that post that before the swing high that we are expecting here Stan and I would ideally like to see new all time highs made on all of SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF, and we saw all of those made before the reversal on Friday. This is a high quality candidate swing high here, but I’m just going to talk about NDX/NQ today as that has been driving the equity bull bus this year, and is the most important place to see high quality highs being made. (more…)
Yawn. The excitement of Friday is another distant memory. We’re back to all equities creeping higher, slowly but surely.
I wanted to share with you an index with which I was unfamiliar until SlopeCharts came along – the S&P Total Return Index, which according to Investopedia:
The total return index is a type of equity index that tracks both the capital gains of a group of stocks over time, and assumes that any cash distributions, such as dividends, are reinvested back into the index. Looking at an index’s total return displays a more accurate representation of the index’s performance. By assuming dividends are reinvested, you effectively account for stocks in an index that do not issue dividends and instead, reinvest their earnings within the underlying company.
My apologies for the lack of posts so far this week. I’ve not been feeling great and it’s been a struggle just to keep up with my daily output for subscribers at theartofchart.net. Planning to resume these posts on a daily basis from this post today.
Last Friday NDX/NQ broke a strong resistance trendline, and that has opened up higher targets, not so much on NDX/NQ, though I have a longer term resistance trendline on NDX in the 6000 area that I will definitely be watching with great interest if reached. NDX 60min chart:
This is just a follow-up on Chicago Bridge & Iron, a chart frequently-mentioned here on Slope as a good short candidate. Well, so far, so good on this one, and I’m simply tightening up my stops along the way down. I think it’s got plenty more to go. (Note: this chart is even lower than when I screen-grabbed it this morning – – it’s doing just great).
Some people like to give me flack when I try to offer up a measured move, but I’m not going to let a couple of dorks preclude me from offering up my ideas. In this case, we’re going to take a look at the biggest ETF of them all, the SPYders. Here’s the chart: