Index after index, ETF after ETF, I am seeing the same thing: (a) a trio of lower highs, indicating the bulls are slowly losing their grip (b) a short-term supporting trendline whose fate should hopefully be determined by Friday;s close (that is, break or save).
Today has been a choppy in-between day as SPX/ES has tested strong support and, so far at least, failed either to convert it to resistance and continue down, or rally strongly from it. However we are likely to see one or the other of those soon and I’m surprised that the process has taken as long as it has so far.
On the bear side is SPX filling the gap from 2738.97 that I was looking at yesterday. As I write the LOD on SPX is 2741.47, almost there, but there are no prizes for almost here. That gap needs to be filled to open the next target areas down. Our lean is that should be the way that SPX resolves out of this inflection point. (more…)
Yesterday’s promising start to the downtrend has continued today and brought ES & SPX down to test important trend support at the weekly pivot on ES at 2749 and the 50 hour MA on SPX now at 2751. SPX is trading about 4 handles below ES today. A decent confirmation that support is breaking would be a fill of the open breakaway gap on SPX from 2738.97. It is of course possible that this support level won’t break, so bears really need to push down through this. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Stan and I were saying in the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday that the last day of the cycle high window was today and we were expecting to see a rally high made by the end of the day. You can see the recording of that here. There was obviously no doubt in our minds (wipes last of cold sweat from brow), and we should be putting in the first stage of that now. Hourly RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals fixed this morning on all of SPX, NDX and RUT, and except for RUT, the RSI 5 sell signals have reached target in this first push down. We are expecting more downside, likely a lot more downside.
I haven’t posted a full intraday video for a few days, so this is the full version also including DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD. I do a premarket video every day for subscribers, and a full intraday video most days, and Stan does a post market video every night. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD: (more…)
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you’d like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.
ES gapped up over resistance on the NFP numbers this morning, and we are running the second option that I was looking at on the intraday video yesterday. ES is likely to hit the rising channel resistance I was looking at yesterday and that is now in the 2785 area. Ideally that gets hit today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
On the video today the first bit where I was looking at the action so far as a likely bull flag that should deliver a retest of the HOD is now obviously out of date, as the flag then broke up and made target, and we have a new HOD. That was unfortunately only of use to subscribers watching the video being recorded live, or on the subscriber twitter feed where I posted the full version soon afterwards. The shorter version takes a bit longer to produce.
For the rest of the video I am considering the case for a possible high being made here in the 2737.25 to 2741 area on ES and we are in that inflection point now. If we see a hard fail here we are looking for new 2018 lows at minimum. If we see a break up instead then we should see ES reach the 2780s next. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: