Category Archives: Politics

Inaugural Thoughts

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It may seem hard to believe, but this is going to be the last full week of Obama’s presidency. After eight years (long, horrible years for the bearish set), Obama’s tenure in the White House is nearing an end. His excellency President Twitter will be sworn in (placing his hand, I suppose, on The Art of the Deal) in just a couple of Fridays. There are very few guarantees in life, but I’m pretty sure of this: this is going to be a verrrrrrrry interesting administration.

Anyway, since Trump’s inauguration is coming up, I thought I’d reflect a bit on what happened in the equity markets when Obama came into office. It’s kind of interesting (I’ve also featured two images of Obama, showing how much these two terms have aged the man).

0108-obama

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SPX Outlook to 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

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I’ve written about the SPX:VIX ratio many times in the past. I’ve mentioned, as recently as November 13th, that it will be necessary for the bulls to hold price on this ratio above the 150 level in order for SPX equities to continue their rally with little volatility to impede this rise.

This post will take a look at one possible scenario that could see the SPX reaching a price of 2700, or so, by 2019, in anticipation of the next U.S. Presidential election in 2020.

As shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below, price has rallied this month from the “median” of a long-term regression channel (which begins at the lows of 2009), and has broken out to all-time highs (above an almost two-year consolidation/congestion level) since Donald Trump was elected as President on December 8th.

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The Missals of October

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I recognize all too well how the country has been completely obsessed with the (surprising) results of the presidential election. I frankly find the government – in all its flavors (federal, state, city) to be a nuisance with which I’d like as little to do with as possible, so I don’t get real worked up about who the temporary occupant of the White House is. As for the recent election, I wanted both of them to lose, so I got half my wish.

All the same, I do think the POTUS has two important roles in our country: (a) moral leadership (b) security through temperament.

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