Category Archives: Politics

“Bearing” in Mind (by Bob Kudla)

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We are ready to enter into a 7 week weak period if you give credence to the cycles of the market.  Presidential election years have a rhythm, and it is telling us to short this market until mid June.  Take some summer profits and short this sucker again, and this year could be a doozy (spell check wanted me to replace with boozy, hmm) as it is the weakest start of a presidential cycle in a long time.

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Lower Price Akbar

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Over the past week, the ES seems to play this little game with the four bears left living on the planet (yours truly representing 25% of this bold contingent): it would drop a modest but enticing amount pre-open, like 5 or 8 points, providing much-needed hope. Then, quarter-point by quarter-point, it would simply reverse, and then the rest of the day it would be spend powering ever-higher, breaking what’s left of our hearts.

I figure this morning may be no different. I definitely don’t get as excited as I used to. I saw the ES was down 8, and I figured there must have been weak news from the scheduled German economic reports. When I finally got in front my screens, I saw this:

0322-religionofpeace

Of course, environment dictates reaction. If this was, for instance, October 2001, the ES would be down 100 points. Instead, as of this writing, it’s down about 7 (having climbed from down 8.25 when I started typing………….and I’m a fast typist).

In any case, from my own charting perspective, there are a staggering number of screamingly obvious short setups, whereas the only stocks that seem bullish are the ones which have done nothing but climb for years: boring stuff like Campbell’s Soup, and Smucker’s Jam, and McDonalds, and Phillip Morris, and other consumer crap like that. I’m not about to go long grocery story products now. I remain steadfastly bearish.