A fellow Sloper was kind enough to send me this………
I’ve written about the SPX:VIX ratio many times in the past. I’ve mentioned, as recently as November 13th, that it will be necessary for the bulls to hold price on this ratio above the 150 level in order for SPX equities to continue their rally with little volatility to impede this rise.
This post will take a look at one possible scenario that could see the SPX reaching a price of 2700, or so, by 2019, in anticipation of the next U.S. Presidential election in 2020.
As shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below, price has rallied this month from the “median” of a long-term regression channel (which begins at the lows of 2009), and has broken out to all-time highs (above an almost two-year consolidation/congestion level) since Donald Trump was elected as President on December 8th.
I recognize all too well how the country has been completely obsessed with the (surprising) results of the presidential election. I frankly find the government – in all its flavors (federal, state, city) to be a nuisance with which I’d like as little to do with as possible, so I don’t get real worked up about who the temporary occupant of the White House is. As for the recent election, I wanted both of them to lose, so I got half my wish.
All the same, I do think the POTUS has two important roles in our country: (a) moral leadership (b) security through temperament.
Earlier this month, I wondered out loud if Obama would pardon Hillary Clinton, giving her sort of an overall amnesty. Folks jumped all over me, especially on Twitter, saying that it was stupid to suggest pardoning someone if they hadn’t been charged with anything. Dutch came to my aid, pointing out the specific legal precedent that would make such a pardon meaningful. I’d also like to present this clipping from the morning paper:
I am going to do something that I’ve never done before in the history of this blog which is to dictate this post verbally. The reason simply stated is that my right hand has very bad tendinitis right now, which I’ve never experienced before but being a person who doesn’t like dealing with pain in the first place it’s fairly debilitating for my typing so, I’m resorting to the mouth and the iPhone. It won’t read quite the same as my writing, but I’m doing what I can.
The media is saturated with analysis about the election and where the media went wrong and what this new presidency will mean for America. One thing I’ve noticed is that some people seem to be creating an analog between the forthcoming Trump presidency and the Reagan presidency from the election of 1980.
I’ll be the first to admit, if you asked me Tuesday, I’d say the odds of this were about zero.
Make no mistake, the real loser of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was not Hillary Clinton. No, it was nearly the entire Western mainstream media which up to final moment last night clung to a political fairytale it tried so very hard to convince its readers over the past two years. No matter whether you are a Hillary or a Trump supporter and no matter how you feel about the 45th president of the the United States himself, this is something that should deeply upset and worry you long after your current euphoria or depression has subsided and given way to your daily routine. (more…)