Category Archives: Politics

“Bearing” in Mind (by Bob Kudla)

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We are ready to enter into a 7 week weak period if you give credence to the cycles of the market.  Presidential election years have a rhythm, and it is telling us to short this market until mid June.  Take some summer profits and short this sucker again, and this year could be a doozy (spell check wanted me to replace with boozy, hmm) as it is the weakest start of a presidential cycle in a long time.

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Lower Price Akbar

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Over the past week, the ES seems to play this little game with the four bears left living on the planet (yours truly representing 25% of this bold contingent): it would drop a modest but enticing amount pre-open, like 5 or 8 points, providing much-needed hope. Then, quarter-point by quarter-point, it would simply reverse, and then the rest of the day it would be spend powering ever-higher, breaking what’s left of our hearts.

I figure this morning may be no different. I definitely don’t get as excited as I used to. I saw the ES was down 8, and I figured there must have been weak news from the scheduled German economic reports. When I finally got in front my screens, I saw this:

0322-religionofpeace

Of course, environment dictates reaction. If this was, for instance, October 2001, the ES would be down 100 points. Instead, as of this writing, it’s down about 7 (having climbed from down 8.25 when I started typing………….and I’m a fast typist).

In any case, from my own charting perspective, there are a staggering number of screamingly obvious short setups, whereas the only stocks that seem bullish are the ones which have done nothing but climb for years: boring stuff like Campbell’s Soup, and Smucker’s Jam, and McDonalds, and Phillip Morris, and other consumer crap like that. I’m not about to go long grocery story products now. I remain steadfastly bearish.

Latest Thoughts on the Campaign

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Back at the start of the year, when the market was plunging every day and I had the time and mental energy to devote myself to topics besides charts, I wrote this post called My Presidential Election Prediction. The core thesis was, “Status Quo means Hillary. Financial Mayhem means Bernie. Fear means Trump.”

So far, it seems Status Quo is winning. The status-y quo-ish stuff that’s happening is: (more…)