The following is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 437. While I think several proposed Trump administration policies would have positive down the road effects for corporate America and the asset ownership class, the administration will have to survive intact in order to implement them. This is one erratic and shall we say, fluid, situation and this is not a leader who inspires confidence, speaking personally at least.
Last week we reduced the charting in favor of increased talking. That was because I had some things to say about the at-risk gold sector and its incomplete macro fundamentals.
There was also a lot to say about stock market sectors that would be favored or avoided if the long-term bond yield environment continued to shift to declining (bonds bouncing). Last week dealt a blow (in the form of Trump’s triumphant speech to congress and unusually aggressive Fed jawboning) to bonds, but did not break the play.
Since its President’s Day, I think I’ll write about something Presidential. And this quote from our patron saint George Carlin is absolutely crucial to the piece:
“When you’re born you get a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in America, you get a front row seat.”
See, I want it crystal clear at the outset that there is nothing political about what I’ve got to say. Our nation is deeply divided along political lines – – the worst I’ve ever seen – – and I can write or tweet about just about anything under the sun without repercussion, but the moment I so much as mention the word “Trump” without words of gushing adulation next to it, some Duck Dynasty-watching mental midget flips out.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the last day of Obama’s presidency. For the bears, Obama has represented nothing but an unbroken string of misery. He seems like a good family man, but Lord in heaven, I will have horrible memories of his administration from a trading perspective until my dying day.
Having said that, the ES stalled on its Trumpgasm weeks ago. After the “oh my God, it’s going to be Trump” limit-down collapse in the ES (which, if I recall correctly, was about 230 years ago), equities went on a vertical tear. It looked like another breakout was underway (green tint), but that flopped, and we’ve been slightly under the broken trendline ever since.
It may seem hard to believe, but this is going to be the last full week of Obama’s presidency. After eight years (long, horrible years for the bearish set), Obama’s tenure in the White House is nearing an end. His excellency President Twitter will be sworn in (placing his hand, I suppose, on The Art of the Deal) in just a couple of Fridays. There are very few guarantees in life, but I’m pretty sure of this: this is going to be a verrrrrrrry interesting administration.
Anyway, since Trump’s inauguration is coming up, I thought I’d reflect a bit on what happened in the equity markets when Obama came into office. It’s kind of interesting (I’ve also featured two images of Obama, showing how much these two terms have aged the man).
An evil plan?
Many former frenzied fanatical believers are calling out Trump as a terrible traitorous turncoat for selecting Googlish Goldman Sachs graduates, reckless titans of industry and perpetually petty politicians for his Cabinet and as his closest advisors.
Ultimate establishment insiders? Think again…………… (more…)