Since the BTFD crowd and “it’s still a bull market” imbeciles were after me today, I thought this would be appropriate…………..
As we move deeper into the year 2018, and as the market slips lower, I am increasingly confident that the gargantuan bull market that started on March 6 2009 ended on January 26 2018. We all know that no one rings a bell at the top………but I think we’re all starting to hear the ringing anyway.
With that in mind, I decided to take a look backward at the kind of chatter that was going on in mainstream financial media when the market was peaking. What became quickly there clear was two “legendary” voices – – Bill Miller and Jeremy Grantham – – took center stage and encouraged people to throw all their money into an equity market that had already gone up over 300%.
Let’s start with the first “legend” – – Bill Miller – – who in January 2018 (that is, the month the market reached its highest peak in human history) notified planet Earth that the market was going to “melt up” by 30%.(more…)
The inability of the stock market to hold a downtrend more than two days is driving me insane (again). It has been two years since there has even been a drop off lasting a couple of weeks.
It was just a month ago that we were in the throes of an all-too-brief bout of excitement. But, looking back, it’s evident that 90% of the move was confined to just two trading sessions. Yep. That was it. For two years of waiting, we got just two days of glory. The next morning was a panic low, and bang, we were back into the unending quagmire.
Depicted on the following graphs are percentages gained/lost in Major Indices and Major Sectors over a longer term (1 year), a medium term (year-to-date), and a short term (the past week).
They are presented, simply, to illustrate where they are relative to those three timeframes.
My only comments are as follows:
Major Indices: Utilities, Small Caps and Transports continue to underperform, and I’d monitor Small Caps, in particular, as I outlined in yesterday’s article, for further signs of weakness and an indicator of further equity risk-off activity.
Major Sectors: Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities continue to underperform, but I’d keep an eye on Financials for any evidence of further weakening, as I recently described here.
My fear for the future of the human race is grounded in two contrasting but related facts: (1) I am supposed to be extremely intelligent (2) I consider myself an idiot. In other words, if, based upon hard data from tests, the vast majority of people are less intelligent than me, yet if I consider myself just barely able to function and be a responsible member of society, where on earth are we all heading? I mean, come on – – I suck – – but most people suck even worse.
It wasn’t long ago that this wouldn’t have mattered at all. At any given point in human history, you could have created a bell curve of intelligence among all living humans. And yet how much has it truly mattered until recently?
In the year 1100, if you were far and away the most brilliant person in your entire village, would it have helped you at all? Would anyone have cared? Of course not! Because you just need to shovel the pig shit into a pile just like everyone else. Intellect was irrelevant. (more…)