Category Archives: Psychology

1 Reason to Tune out 90% of the Gold ‘Community’

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  1. Because they remained bullish throughout a bear market while spouting slogans and dogma, keeping gullible people in the grip of a fantasy that they are comrades in arms against evil forces and that in the end, good will prevail.

In the end gold will be assigned its value, but there is absolutely no reason that people should have been hurt in the interim by holding the speculations that revolve around gold, especially at the behest of cranks, charlatans and carnival barkers. (more…)

Real Estate Recency Bias

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If there’s one sweet job to have — besides being a Goldman banker – - it’s Palo Alto real estate agent (at least a top-tier one). These days, just toss an ad into the Palo Alto Daily Post, and, voila, multiple above-market offers, of which you get a healthy percentage. The winningest realtor in town these days in Ken DeLeon, who is (not surprisingly) given editorial space on a regular basis in the paper in which he advertises regularly so he can share his (cough cough) objective view on where real estate is headed. His conclusions, of course, tend to suggest everlasting upside.

0718-realestate

Alone Again, Naturally

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This is a very strange week for me – - for the past few days, and for the rest of this week, I’m utterly alone. My entire family is away. I don’t think this has happened………well………..ever. I have been, for my entire life, remarkably comfortable with solitude, but I do miss them. I don’t think anyone would want to spend time alone with the thoughts in my head for over a week with no one else to distract them.

I’m spending my free time now thinking about introducing SocialTrade to a wider audience – - and not just traders – - in fact, anyone EXCEPT traders. If you have a popular web site yourself (or you are close to someone who does) that might have use for a content tool like SocialTrade for users to gather up content, drop me an email, because I’d love to have a few test sites to explore this concept outside the bounds of my blog. Thanks.

Cupid and Psycho

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I don’t think any post I’ve written caused as big a kerfuffle as A Change In Tone, which was just a 0625-cupidweek ago, in the aftermath of the Yellen bear massacre. So now that so much time has passed, I thought I’d reflect a bit on where things stand and my present disposition.

At the moment, I am:

  • Bullish on commodities (examples: DBC, USO)
  • Bullish on precious metals (examples: GDX, GLD, SLV, GDXJ)
  • Bearish (yeah, still………) on most stocks
  • Cautiously bullish on a handful of carefully-selected stocks (example: WPZ)

It continues to be maddening – - absolutely maddening – - that honest-to-God bad economic keeps rolling in, yet the market keeps shrugging and marching higher (freakishly, yesterday’s welcome drop was pretty much out of nowhere and for no particular reason).

I will say, however, that taking a more balanced approach to the various choices in front of me has left me a lot less anxious, less dogmatic, and less hung up on seeing Janet dangling from a branch somewhere. Don’t get me wrong – - I’m still leaning heavily toward equities taking a meaningful hit (although a true bear market is, sadly, probably going to take much longer than we think to really take hold) but there are indeed some markets in which I can be enthusiastically long.

Bull vs Bear vs Right vs Wrong: And Does it Really Matter

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Currently there is a great debate within the financial media on the who’s right – who’s wrong, as both sides stare at a financial market that seems to go ever higher with every morning bell.

In actuality, it’s both, and neither. While I am being somewhat cheeky, I do believe I’m not that far off the mark. However, the consequences of this dilemma is where the broader argument is getting lost on far too many.

Currently the macro economy is being expressed via circumstances resulting from a myopic view of participation. i.e., The financial markets. (more…)