I firmly believe we are going to see a surge in the VIX to the mid-20s. Until then, I am shorting, and shorting, and then shorting some more. If and when we reach the happy day when something resembling the chart below is realized, I shall finally cover.
Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 352:
For what seems like forever we have been mechanical in managing the precious metals because they have been bearish; period. This has been based on short and long-term technical indications and incomplete macro fundamentals. Gary the robot has had no difficulty whatsoever holding this stance despite Gary the human’s unwavering view that the value of gold is in its insurance and long-term retained value qualities.
The precious metals took a hard bearish turn last week and that is the best news I have seen in a while because the complex has been locked below important resistance (failed support) for some time now and the sector usually completes its severe corrections and bear markets with a bang, not a quiet whimper.
I linked Barry Ritholtz’s gold bug swipe along with other items in an Around the Web post. Anything linked (or republished from guests for that matter) on this site is to be taken as 100% their view, not mine. You, the reader are tasked with using your own brain to consider, discount or ignore any of it as you see fit.
What do I think of Ritholtz’s view on gold, personally? I think ole’ Barry is picking some easy, low hanging fruit to use up virtual ink over at Bloomberg, per his contract (real or implied). I mean really, gold did not react to Greece and he takes that as a negative for the metal?
IKN has been pointing out the stupidity of some Apple Watch gold consumption hype and most recently, the non-flight to quality amidst Greece blah blah blah… He is at least as sensitive as I am to this stuff. More so, maybe.
While I have personally tried to tone down the criticism of the cartoons in the gold “community”, I find it difficult with one writer in particular leading the naive into the GDX (with its “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge”), into the Indian Wedding and China demand stories and as a topping on the cartoonish cake, the ‘US jobs will drive inflation so make like the smart money and BUY GOLD before the big institutions do!’ garbage.
After I mentioned on my Tastytrade show yesterday how delighted I was that charts were working again, I had this exchange on Twitter: