Category Archives: Psychology

The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished

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I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks.  Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by the pitch, which tugs at peoples’ morals, sense of right and wrong and plain old common sense, is a long and storied one.

As in any market, you are the mark, the target, the food… unless you do the educational work to the degree required in order to have your own – not some expert’s – view on things.  That includes we would-be geniuses who think we can write for you and provide worthwhile information along the way in your decision making process.  The day I stop learning and working to be better is the day I stop doing this, and that’ll be the day they fit me for a pine box.


Moth Into Flame

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If you’ve been dropping by the lair for more than a few weeks then you probably know that I’ve been a huge Metallica fan since the mid 1980s when they released Master Of Puppets. So the other day I’m at the gym listening to some testosterone inducing station on Spotify. And out of the blue ‘Moth Into Flame’ pops up, which confused the heck out of me as I had been completely unaware that Metallica was releasing a new album. I thought to myself ‘wait a minute, this sounds like some of their old stuff but somehow I must have missed this one‘. You can imagine my joy when I later realized what was actually going on.



Read and Listen to the Media, be a Day Late, Lot of Dollars Short

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Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex.  Stoopid MSM headlines this morning…

Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts)

Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs)

Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…)

European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes on deck (of course, there has to be a reason they’d be little changed; this one’s as good as any)

This is why the Stock Market’s complacency is about to end (tell me genius, do tell… )

Dow, S&P 500, bonds trade like a Fed rate hike isn’t cause to stress out (because it isn’t, Captain Obvious)

And that is just the MSM; factor in the opinion and propaganda from the blogosphere and the gold bug cult “community” and it’s no wonder people get confused.  I get email from very decent and intelligent people asking what I think is going on, what is going to happen.  It is obvious that the disparity of opinions (much of it stated confidently as virtual fact) flying around out there has people flummoxed (hey, that’s a word I’ve never written before, ever in my life).

But there is no ‘IS’.  There are only probabilities.  A good bit of the crap in the MSM and from the lesser lights in the blogging ecosystem speaks in definite terms because it is either trying to get eyeballs or it is pitching its dogma to its own gain.  On any given day it seems like a majority of the financial complex is hanging an ad in its window saying “come consume what I have to offer!  I’m right and here’s why…” and then the story changes for the MSM as it simply hangs new ads in its window the next day; and as for the lesser touts?

Why, they simply start reporting the news, as in… Thought bubble:  ‘Shit, I was wrong big time to be touting that trend even after it ended, but I need to figure out a spin…’ Stated publicly:  “Gold and Silver are in a correction and support looks to be in the…”

So tomorrow is “big Jobs” Friday.  Whoop de doo!  The Semiconductor Equipment sector gave its signal so many months ago.  Some people fought me on this, either knowingly (you know who you are) or from an expert’s perch, unknowingly.  Also, Brexit did not end the world, Europe is talking about tapering QE and things have held up just fine.

Now it’s “big Jobs” week.  The ultimate lagging data point will be reported tomorrow and if it goes over 200K (experts are forecasting 169k) there will be a cacophonous uproar.  But we will not be surprised because we had early, forward looking data months ago (which has already manifested in a big jobs recovery over the last few months).

I guess all I am saying is will you please tune down the cacophony?  It is unhealthy.

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Remembering Happier Times

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Sigh. I’m feeling sentimental, so I thought I’d put up some bear porn and share the first ten minutes of the Nightly Business Report from October 19, 1987. A similar drop today would be about 4,000 points off the Dow in a single session. These days, a 1% drop in the market causes the government to freak out and just throw another trillion dollars of “money” at the market. How I miss days like these…………enjoy! (and take note of all the sponsors of the show which don’t exist anymore):


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Perhaps some of you might think this post’s title represents equity symbols, much in the same way our friend Ryan Mallory offers. Nope. They are the initials spelling out the completely pissed-off obscenities that are bouncing around in my head.

Today is just like yesterday in three respects. ONE, equities dropped hard, pushing up my profit tremendously. TWO, Yellen & Company rushed in to prop up the market yet again, bidding up prices, smashing my profits down. And THREE, oil is completely saving my ass (and my profits). But because of #2 (a digit that often leaps to mind when thinking of Janet Yellen), my profit is a shadow of its former self. Again, just like yesterday.

I’m ready to choke somebody to death.


This Year for the Bears

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The short-selling fund, symbol HDGE, sums it up nicely. The year was fantastic for the bears………for a little while. Every since February 11, which feels like about fifty years ago, it’s been a complete shit-show. I’m starting to think it’s going to be this way in perpetuity.


The killer is that there is a plethora of amazing short setups for individual stocks, but none of them are going to amount to jack squat as long as the market keeps getting drifted higher day after day. It’s a drag.