Good day for my utterly-short portfolio, in spite of our ghey friends desperately continuing to inflate assets, thanks to their perpetually-lubricated central banker buddies. I’m simply shorting more. And more. And then some more.
We are well into the eleventh year of Slope of Hope, and I think part of the appeal of the blog has been that I write from the heart. I’ve debated today whether I should write this post, but I’m just going to go with the same instinct that I’ve always had and write what I’m feeling.
Specifically, I am starting to wonder if I’ve completely lost interest in the markets. My life still revolves around U.S. equities, watching the charts during market hours and keeping an eye on the ES and NQ after hours, as well as FOREX. But, I’ve got to tell you, the past six years have transformed my disposition toward the markets from excitement to frustration to despair to disillusionment to sheer tedium.
In writing this post I came to realize that its subject matter is too expansive for any single post. So consider this an introduction to a series of posts that I’ll probably do in the coming months, as facts come to the fore and lend themselves to historical analysis. Two examples are presented below.
You might not be the type who needs or cares to subscribe to commercial market commentary/advice/trading/management services, but one thing we all can do is work through the freely available stuff calling itself ‘analysis’ flying around out there at warp speed and cull what is based on facts or honestly produced analytical work from the other garbage that is all too often based on ego, bias or agenda.
The news scams and crude market forecasts are becoming even more crude.
You can read last week’s Bloomberg article quoting the helpful folks at GS here:
Bloomberg: Goldman Says $40 Oil Call May Be Too Low as Demand Surprises
Then, you can enjoy this chart showing what appears to be a nice Distribution Zone, followed by a 10+ sigma, 7-handle move to down. Please enjoy the custom selected colors:
Long live 50s! Errrr…. 40s!
If you really wanna have a blast, join the fun at #RigCountGuesses.
The market has fallen a little over 3% since it hit its highs and in the new bull fed supported market this is considered a crash, there is an overall lack of fear this decline compared to the last declines. Looking at the chart below you can see that the VIX index rallied at least 40% before the market bottoms. The stepper the decline the larger the drop but on average the VIX climbed 86%. So where are we now. Well the market has declined around 3.9% and the VIX has climbed about 35%. So what does this all mean, well it means there is a strong possibility that the market has another 2-3% decline and the VIX has another 5%-10% rally before we can start thinking a bottom has been put in. Of course the markets can prove us wrong but history does repeat its self. Click the chart to zoom in. (more…)
Well it seems that the prospect of “battle pay” for teachers or $400,000 in guards standing around looking at their iPhones hasn’t stopped a 4th student from throwing himself in front of CalTrain in the past few months. I cannot imagine the agony of the parents…..
Friday was a very interesting trading day for me, and I thought I’d share my memories of it since I think it is instructive about both risk and emotional management.
As most of you would probably guess, I came into the day completely short. But I wasn’t just short: I was Herve Villechaize short. So short I could jump off a nickel. You get the idea.
In spite of the fact that Monday registered the highest closing price in the 13 billion year history of the universe for many indexes, including the now-Apple-laden Dow 30 Industrial Average, I’m a dauntless bear, and I spent the week shorting, shorting, and then shorting some more.
Before I go further, I should explain a couple of elements of my trading that are important to this story. First off, since I’m a constant-as-the-Northern-Star permabear, I judge my own performance inversely. If the market is down, I certainly want to be up. And if the market is up, I know I have to tolerate being down.