Category Archives: Psychology

Revisiting Truth’s Moment

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Way back on August 30, I did a post called Past Fear, Present Fear, which offered up an analog of the VIX (please read it if you don’t remember; it’s a pretty good post). I would daresay it was one of the best posts I did in 2014, and things certainly unfolded as I hoped they would (although today was no fun for me). I followed up on October 9th with my Moment of Truth post, which was just before the markets started really falling hard. Thus – so far, so good. (more…)

When Confidence Crumbles

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Once again we awake to an array of seemingly contradictory news and reports across the spectrum. Whether it be Ebola, the financial markets, or just plain ordinary life in general. It seems everything is once again in turmoil.

The issue at hand is migrating from worrisome to darn right alarming. And that’s not counting the general public at large. That speaks directly to the very one’s trying to re-establish confidence.

Today, what was once presumed as “a troubling situation in competent hands.” Now appears more inline with the space between “in” and “competent” being a typo. (more…)

When Nothing Matters – Until It Does

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It would seem to anyone that’s been in business before the financial crisis of 2008 not only had the rules changed, but rather they changed so much even Alice would find our current looking-glass far more surreal.

It also seems that it wasn’t all that long ago where one thought that maybe, just maybe, to understand the craziness around you; you needed to ever so grudgingly accept the nonsensical mindset of “bad is now considered good.”

So, you adjusted your investing theses, your business plans, your whatever as to try to navigate these  uncharted waters. Waters that emanated via the Federal Reserve opening (if not destroying) the dam and flooding the financial markets with liquidity so deep even Montana thought it had a new water view. To then suddenly all you bought into (literally) all you’ve been told. All of it – falls like the house of cards you tried to will (wish) away as if it weren’t true. (more…)

The Moment of Truth

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First, a bit of shameless commerce – – for those of you potentially interested in joining Slope Plus, remember that this month I’m running a special (the first I’ve had in about half a year) in which you can use the service for free for a month. Just enter the coupon code trickortreat on the Subscription page, and voila, a virtual $29.95 is in your hands!

Now, on to my post………

Back on August 30, I did a post called Past Fear, Present Fear which, it seems, turned out to be really, really, really prescient. I urge you to give the post a glance, but in short, it drew a powerful parallel between the volatility leading up to the financial crisis and the volatility we were witnessing through this summer………. (more…)

Welcome To A “New” New Normal Earnings Season

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It’s not supposed to be like this. We’ve all been told earnings are great, corporate profits are great, analysts estimates have been rising. As a matter of fact, if one dared to question any of these metrics we were referred to as “idiots.” (And that is an actual quote.)

Today as we enter this earnings cycle we have a new phrase that I’m sure will enter the lexicon of the lay person in reference to stocks, but will send shivers down actual Wall Street’ers as they have to defend, argue, or give a smoke and mirrors story that will have a chance of being believed. That phrase will be “a trap door event.”

Wall Street loves to spout nice little catch phrases when suddenly what they thought (or told) investors should happen suddenly turns around and does something else. (more…)