Category Archives: Psychology

Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs

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Warning… Condescension ensues… NFTRH 307’s opening segment, dated 9.7.14:

From a post on the HUI at the site last week:

“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out. Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”

The gap was filled, the top end of the anticipated support zone was reached and indeed, the wrong [i.e. momentum players] kind of gold bugs are scattering back out. The hard sell down on Thursday was very likely due in large part to the selling by traders with a fetish about gold as a geopolitical or terror hedge. (more…)

Gold Hatred and a Long-Winded TA Screed

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We are operating to parameters on a would-be gold sector bottoming process, which has been a year+ long grind (‘grind is good’ as it absolutely ruins peoples’ nerves over time) and which by the way, everyone sees now as either a final bottom or a consolidation before the final and spirit destroying wipe out, depending on their Team’s hopes and aspirations (bull or bear).

About a year ago NFTRH projected two possibilities (within the context that it was only in the realm of potential) and they were a ‘W’ bottom or failing that (it promptly failed) an Inverted Head & Shoulders on the HUI. Today a new pattern has joined the IH&S and it is a Symmetrical Triangle, which would be a consolidation before the final crash. (more…)


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You may have seen a mention somewhere about the nearly 1,300-page PowerPoint presentation that entrepreneur Ryan Allis put together.

I’ve considered myself an entrepreneur ever since I was a teenager, although the only “real” business I started (and sold……..) was Prophet Financial, back in early 2005. Slope of Hope is sort of a business (revenue, profits, tax returns, and all that stuff) but, let’s face it – – Slope is just me – – so it’s not really a “business”, although it does keep bread on the table.

Anyway, I’m skimming this giant presentation, and although a good portion of it consists of obvious notions and values, there are a few gems here and there. I like this slide in particular: (more…)

If Not Trusting This Market Makes Me An Idiot: Then Call Me Crazy!

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I was left slack-jawed as I listened to an interview on financial media between the host and guest. I have always enjoyed as well as respected the host even though many times I may totally disagree. However, as for the guest being interviewed, not only did I disagree: I lost quite a bit of respect for.

During the interview the questions were posed as to why people (investors et al) harbor these feelings of angst as to whether or not they should get in, get out, etc,, etc. The guest then went on to use data points, math, trend references, and any other metric available within a snake oil sales bag as to prove his point: Where people not believing in this market rally along with those who’ve not participated are, (and I quote) “Idiots.” (more…)

Muddled Messaging Ripe For Opposition

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One can’t help when looking at all the geopolitical as well as threats of non-containment of the deadly Ebola virus and wonder: Who’s in control here?

Here’s a hint – it’s not the people lining up to give the message via oratory salvos. In fact, the clearest of messages coming out of the geopolitical realm are happening rapidly, methodically, and very much with blinding clarity allowing deeds to speak rather than words.

Just one example of this can be shown when the more one looks only for the outbreak of war, the more one misses other acts which can have just as dire consequences down the road. i.e., Developing friendships of rivals where the focus of that relationship is to oppose – you. (more…)

An Introduction to Trading and Artificial Intelligence (by Mr. Wizard)

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This is a short primer on applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to your trading activities. AI can bring a fresh approach and a different perspective to anyone willing to invest the time and effort to learn how to combine some simple programming skills and common trading knowledge.

First off, I will fully admit that while I am not an expert in either trading or artificial intelligence, I know a bit about both, which is probably just enough to be dangerous. Furthermore, I will make the claim that being a mediocre programmer and a semi-skilled trader puts you ahead of either world-class programmers that know nothing about trading, or top-notch traders that do not understand the basic concepts, advantages, and limitations of AI. Think about your current skills and where the biggest bang for invested time lies. If you buy commercial AI trading software to save some effort, expect that just throwing some data and a few preselected indicators at it will not be very productive.


The Society of the Spectacle

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spectacleI write all the time about bullshit detectors, cartoons and caricatures. I can be cranky, surly and intolerant of stupidity. I hate dumb commercialism and uncritical thinking. I want us all to be awake and dealing in reality, not giving up our critical power and dimly following someone else’s orthodoxies, especially those of so-called experts.

Of the negative feedback I get from public writing (outside of a couple whack jobs who periodically cannot keep themselves from sending along totally insane and hateful emails) by far the most frequent are along the lines of ‘I don’t know what you are talking about’ or ‘you fail to make a point’ or ‘this article is devoid of value and offers no actionable conclusion’ (hello SeekingAlpha, home of the linear, academic and/or auto-piloted paint-by-numbers thinker).