Category Archives: Psychology


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I probably don’t have to say how discomfiting it is to be holding fast during this upsurge. The NASDAQ has added nearly 6% in just the past five trading days, and we’re getting dangerously close to violating our nice, neat series of lower highs. If we slice above the prior high, it’s not the end of the world, but it definitely muddies the water. As if it weren’t muddy enough.


Will Facebook Like The New Reality?

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Within days Facebook™ will announce their earnings report. However, since their last reporting a new reality has appeared and many of its investors may require a pair of those new virtual reality headsets to parse what Facebook believes is reality: and the reality Wall Street wants. i.e., Where’s the money?

Wall Street (or the markets in general) is notorious for turning once heralded “wonder boy’s” during the IPO process – into just plain “boy’s” (more…)

Personal Bear Market

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This post has gone through three lives in the past twenty-four hours.

The first life was in the swimming pool. I was taking my first swim of the year, since the water temperature was finally in the 80s. I am a “temp wimp”, so I really want the pool to be warm before I get in. Of course, once my ancient yellow lab Kobe saw me in there, he jumped right in too and swam right beside me. Although he is the human equivalent of over 100 years old, he is a far more capable swimmer. (more…)

The EKG Market

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When the powers that be are doing everything that can to keep the dance music going, the moves are going to get more and more violent. What we’ve seen just in the past couple of days is a sneak preview of the absurdity ahead: waterfall drops (AKA reality) and explosive up-moves (AKA desperate bidding from the big boys). My motto? Three words. Sell into strength.


Silent Scream

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It’s obviously more of a kick when things are falling, but looking at today’s action, we have seen this movie before. In fact, we’ve seen it multiple times lately. The unicorns are cavorting once more in the meadow, and everyone is bidding assets up. But one glance at the past couple of months on the ES simply screams “short me!” even though it’s virtually impossible to do so on a day like this and feel good about it. It only feels good after the fact. That’s why hardly anyone does it. “Sell into strength” are three of the easiest words to say but most difficult to actually execute.


Happy Little Trees

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I can’t draw. But I’ve always been fascinated by people who could, and part of the reason is a feeling that I’ve never discussed with anyone before.

It’s not that it’s particularly embarrassing or anything. But as a child I distinctly remember what would happen when someone would go up to the chalkboard and carefully draw something out. Or perhaps I’d see a television program in which someone was painting. Anytime anyone was slowly and carefully doing something illustrative, I got this……….funny feeling. (more…)

Short Palo Alto

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My town has changed. When I first came here, in 1984, it was a pretty standard college town. Sure, the houses were kind of pricey, but the look and feel of the place wasn’t that much different than you’d probably get in any other town next to a big, well-known college.

But things have changed a lot lately. And I’ve got to say, the kinds of changes I’m seeing weren’t really apparent during the Internet bubble. For some reason, the self-importance and money-worship didn’t really take root until recently, after the financial crisis. (more…)