Category Archives: Psychology

Today’s Markets Are “A Lesson In Willful Ignorance”

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Within the last 90 days there has been more convoluted messaging coming from the financial media, the main stream, as well as academia than I can remember. The more one looks or tries to find relevant, useful, actionable insights – the more they get conjecture.

Tag onto this the obligatory covering of arses as one’s told “It’s a great time to buy stocks!” Followed with “It will probably end badly.” Or, that other gem for the legend books “The Fed’s got your back” analogy.

So prevalent are these today it makes a politician marvel in its usage for audacity or speciousness. And that’s saying something in my book.

Let’s take a few examples that really give the tenor and tone of what I’m trying to express. They are far from the only ones, yet they give what I believe are true representations on why people are not only confused, but why they’ve walked away from both the markets as well as other activities in ways that have all the supposed “experts” flummoxed. (more…)

Huey, Dewey & Louie

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huey.dewey.louieLooking around the gold sector at some of those who have tried to keep ‘em bullish all the way down. The peddlers of hope are irrepressible.

Huey writes that gold stocks are well supported by the enormous expansion in the global gold jewelry business. In fact, according to Huey Western mining stock shareholders stand to reap substantial reward from the relentless growth in gold jewellery demand.

Do you hear that? Not just have an end put to their misery but if they will just hang in there a while longer they will be in line for a substantial reward… all due to a supposed fundamental underpinning that has nothing to do with the investment case for gold miners… and is not nearly the best driver for gold either. Keep bafflin’ ‘em with bullshit Huey. All the way down… unbelievable. (more…)

Contrary Indicator

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I hesitated to post this because it puts an actual person up for ridicule, as opposed to the usual stuff I write about the “gold generals” or ‘stock market touts and trend followers’, etc. A reader sent along an email containing this link (and its very bearish current view of gold) and the video below.

Daniela (Aug. 24, 2011): “…this [Fed’s Op/Twist.] would create a bullish gold scenario?”

Puru: “Absolutely…”

also… “on the cusp of a massive uptrend in gold…” (more…)

Bear Despair

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Tonight I’m going to forego the usual quest for thin reeds on which to hang the equity bear case, and instead offer up reasons why all hope is lost for now. So here goes…..

First, the Dow Jones Composite has penetrated and successfully tested its former resistance line. This resistance is now acting as support, as illustrated by yesterday’s test of the line and today’s acceleration up and away from it.

1118-comp (more…)

Repulsive Attractant

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Indulge me in a bit of a thought experiment.

Let’s say there was a fellow here in Palo Alto named Brad. He told me that he had invented the world’s perfect tiger repellant. He simply sprayed it on, and voila, no tigers would bother him.

This was intriguing to me, because I had, in turn, created a tiger attractant. My claim was that this invisible spray would attract tigers from several miles away.

The trouble was, my spray just didn’t seem to work. Try as I might, no tigers ever appeared. Not even once. Back when I was roaming around Indonesia and Sumatra, tigers would show up all the time. But here in Palo Alto, it just didn’t work anymore. (more…)

Negative Feedback 2; Points Proven

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A couple weeks ago I wrote a post about some negative feedback (comes with the territory, if I am doing my job well enough) because I wrote about the very real economic performance that has so far come out of what I consider unsustainable and doomed to fail policy (and would be bullish for the gold sector I might add).

So I get to have some people call me a perma bear on one side and certain dogma defenders on the opposite side, both coming down on the writer who, right or wrong, is trying to clear out the b/s and just write the truth.

Now with the Gold Bug Psychology article I unsurprisingly I got the incoming from that camp as well. Even though I am twice the gold bug some of the dogma defenders are because I am not threatened by my position and am willing to state the truth as I see it. Nobody that I know of has put in the effort I have over the last decade in trying to describe gold as a value instrument and an insurance policy… and NOT a PLAY or a GAME. (more…)