Category Archives: Psychology

So Which Is It?

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(As a reminder, you can get free, real-time crypto charts in SlopeCharts).

Forty thousand dollars per bitcoin. One hundred thousand. Three hundred thousand. The predictions are as numerous as the people making them.

I don’t pretend to know which one is going to be reality, and neither should anyone else. I do find the simplified presentation of price movements during manias to be an interesting road map, however. We all know that last week cryptos went crazy, with some losing more than half their value. On Friday, and into this weekend, they are beginning to strengthen, and I suspect many crypto-bulls have heaved a sigh of relief and are comforted by the fact this was just another one of those scary downturns. They don’t say HODL for nothing, you know.

phases

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Sullen Sunday

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Given its insane movements, who knows where $BTC will be by the time you read this, but as I’m typing this on Saturday evening, the cryptocurrency has lost a full 25% of its value in the span of just a few days. I remain slack-jawed they are rolling out derivative trading instruments on this thing. I mean, look, I don’t have a dog in this fight, but what if $17,300 was the peak, and this thing just craps itself back down to $1,000? The hype will vanish.

slopechart_$BTC

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BEARded Grace

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There are few experiences in this life that will more fully expose your strengths and weaknesses like trading the markets… Mentally, emotionally, spiritually, even physically.

Before we move forward, let’s take a look back. Do you remember where you were in Oct/Nov 2014, and what was happening in the markets?  The market was doing something that it had never done before.  It was making a record number of daily advances.  Day after day, after day…like the market had never before seen in recorded history.  It was also the time when ATR-based trading was birthed out of the pain of my unseen bias.  My trading moved from fundamental, to technical, and then to unbiased trading based on ATR. (more…)