I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.
What I am trying to say is that after the previous media headlines last summer (mainstream media: NIRP & BREXIT!!… everybody into risk ‘off’ bonds!) yields reacted a bit and rose as they should have, from a contrary setup, in order to catch the herds off sides.
But then the hysteria over the Trump election led to the Druck’n Suck-In of the true believers (or “Sons of Druckenmiller”) and… here we are with everybody anti-bonds, pro-reflation and pro-interest rates. Maybe they would be right this time, but then again, given the herd’s history (from Sentimentrader w/ my markups)…
Since I’ve been having an unexpectedly grand old time being a SNAP permabear, I thought I’d share some thoughts this Friday evening about the nature of a financial instrument which basically does nothing but go down.
As I begin my Trip of Mystery, I feel the need to apologize.
This emanates, i suppose, from a terrible incident last night. I was driving in the evening hours with my family when a black cat leaped directly in front of my car. I hit it and, I’m sure, killed it.
This just broke my heart. I am not the killing type. With the exception of mosquitoes and flies, I try to do what I can to preserve living things. Over the course of my life, I have removed with my bare hands countless spiders and insects from inside the house (usually walking in the bathtub or sink) to the outdoors where they can live out a normal spider or insect life. If I’m walking a spider from a second floor bedroom to gently place it on a Camellia leaf outdoors, I’m surely not going to want to kill a fellow mammal.
Well, that sucked out loud. Just when it seemed like the equity bears might have a tiny fighting chance of stringing together two or three good days, blammo, Trump’s speech is a hit and everyone goes ape buying stocks. Quite a sight to behold.
All the same, I’d like to offer up the VIX to illustrate that these periods of doe-eyed giddiness have always, even in this insane market, ended in tears. It’s just a matter of time.
Since Slope Plus factors into this post, I’ll mention this one last time .……..a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it. I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, type in the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free.
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I have, over the long lifespan of Slope, mentioned some emotional scars from childhood during that period of time when it seems virtually everyone in my generation had a complete suck time: middle school. It seems that a few random verbal assaults of “fag” or “dick” can persist for decades.
I’ve been so busy this afternoon, I’ve been racked with guilt about not being able to sit down and do a post. But here I am, so I’ll get on it…….
The bear market was supposed to really kick in full-force a year ago. News flash: it didn’t. Allow me to show you what I mean by this.
I woke up this morning, last night’s post on my mind, and thought to myself, “C’mon, Tim, there’s got to be SOMETHING interesting going on in the market you can write about.”
So I wandered through my pitch-black first floor, iPad in hand, sat down, fired it up, and headed over to ZH, since they were bound to have something provocative. And yet the most exciting contribution was along these lines:
So……some “trader” is “stunned” at………a failed communications strategy. And a guy from Bloomberg is “amazed” at how a debate continues to “rage” about Janet Yellen’s mindset.