Category Archives: Psychology

Oral Wrecks

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Well, that sucked out loud. Just when it seemed like the equity bears might have a tiny fighting chance of stringing together two or three good days, blammo, Trump’s speech is a hit and everyone goes ape buying stocks. Quite a sight to behold.

All the same, I’d like to offer up the VIX to illustrate that these periods of doe-eyed giddiness have always, even in this insane market, ended in tears. It’s just a matter of time.

0301-vix

Fear and Failure

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Since Slope Plus factors into this post, I’ll mention this one last time .……..a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it.  I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, type in the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free.

SOH-Logo-ManNote that this coupon is only going to be working for a few days, so don’t lollygag. Also please note this discount works for ANNUAL subscriptions as well, so you’ll save the most by going for an annual, since you get two months free already.

Besides all the normal extras you get as a Slope Plus subscriber, you’ll also be getting the very best ideas I’ve got (many of which have been doing really well, even in this market, as you’ll see once you have access). I hope you’ll give it a try. On with the regular post now…………

I have, over the long lifespan of Slope, mentioned some emotional scars from childhood during that period of time when it seems virtually everyone in my generation had a complete suck time: middle school. It seems that a few random verbal assaults of “fag” or “dick” can persist for decades.

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Fighting the Blahs

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I woke up this morning, last night’s post on my mind, and thought to myself, “C’mon, Tim, there’s got to be SOMETHING interesting going on in the market you can write about.”

So I wandered through my pitch-black first floor, iPad in hand, sat down, fired it up, and headed over to ZH, since they were bound to have something provocative. And yet the most exciting contribution was along these lines:

0214-stunned

So……some “trader” is “stunned” at………a failed communications strategy. And a guy from Bloomberg is “amazed” at how a debate continues to “rage” about Janet Yellen’s mindset.

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Moving Targets: Investors Need to Discriminate!

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Robot-48x48In the current political climate herds are running every which way.  There is the anti-Trump herd, the pro-Trump herd, the liberal herd, the conservative herd, the CNBC herd, the mainstream financial services industry herd, the Armstrong herd, the gold bug herd… and there are all those ideologies in play.  But robotic thinking, unless it is in service to profitable trades like this one on an excellent company providing automation (ref. recent Fanuc NFTRH+ highlight), does not pay (disclaimer: I’ve sold and taken the profit).

So stop right there!  These are the financial markets, and if you have not checked your deepest held beliefs, your virtue, your bigotry and in general, your bias at the door you are going to lose.

There is a plan in play, which NFTRH has been tracking for many months, since we abandoned the bearish topping patterns (that weren’t) in US markets during the depths of the Brexit hysteria and the subsequent sentiment thrust, which undid the market’s bearish technical status.  The plan has been ‘SPX bullish’ based on the bullish moving average (up) signal on this weekly chart from the better part of a year ago…

spx weekly chart
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The Loss of Verve

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For a person who has almost zero interest in sports, I sure have been lucky lately. I sorta-kinda watched the World Series last October, just for the final portion, and it turned out to be one of the most amazing games of all time. And then yesterday we sorta-kinda had the Super Bowl on, and we all know how that went. (Just to give you an idea of how intently we were watching, I walked into the room and asked my family: “Has the game started yet?” and none of them had any idea; every single person was on their respective laptop).

Anyway, the Patriots’ victory last night just goes to show, no matter how down you may be, there’s always hope. And having said that, I must again point out that the bold breakout in equities (tinted in green on the ES below) fizzled swiftly (see red arrow), and the market has been unable to get its old verve back. My fervent plea to the market gods, of course, is that we slip below last week’s lows, and the Trump trauma can really start to sink its teeth in.

0206-busted