The good people of my fair city are getting slack-jawed over real estate. Even with interest rates rising (should SHOULD diminish any asset that depends so heavily on debt), prices just keep getting crazier. Right on the front page this morning is a 900 square foot shack in a crappy part of town that sold for two and a half million bucks, way over the asking price.
Since apparently our northern neighbor didn’t learn anything from the folly of the U.S. between 2002 and 2006, they have engaged in their own nutty real estate mania. Countless seminars and get-rich-quick schemes are cluttering the landscape, and I think we all know how this movie is going to end. For myself, I’ve taken to shorting those with a financial interest in this bubble, and my best winner so far is the Bank of Montreal.
Before I get into the Trade Idea, I’m going to review the context of the S&P500 from a structural standpoint and a typical deviation standpoint. First of all, structurally, the Weekly and Daily charts show higher highs and higher lows, the very definition of an uptrend. In November of 2016, the SPY completed a $20 wide trading channel of which currently price is a stone’s throw from its high resistance. The channel would suggest that buying potential is limited.
Now, anyone who hangs around the comments has seen that I use 5% simple moving average envelopes around a 100MA as a measure of movement potential (oversold, neutral, overbought). Where are we now? Yep, hit it on Friday. Again. (Click on any chart to see a larger version).
The movement in the bond market has been throwing a few sectors around in the past few months. Today, I would like to highlight the ishares real estate ETF, IYR. You don’t have to look all that closely to see the tight correlation its had to the bond market (represented by TLT) over the past eight months. Keep an eye on that one. As goes TLT, so goes IYR.
Given the fact our forthcoming president is a real estate mogul, it’s amusing that the industry most vulnerable to a big price drop is, in fact, real estate (I’ve already witnessed it here in the Silicon Valley, where prices started slipping this summer).
Back on October 21st, before the election, I suggested SRS as a buy. It’s up about 13% in that very short amount of time, and I think there’s plenty more to come.