I have been running an experiment with myself over the past couple of months. I really didn’t plan for this experiment. I just sort of fell into it. Now that it’s running, though, I’m quite interested to see what comes of my personal test.
The first result of this test is as follows: in the first quarter of 2017, in my regular portfolio, I lost ground. That isn’t a huge shock, since that portfolio is entirely short, is often 200% margined (or even more), and Q1 2017 had all kinds of lifetime highs on just about every major index. I had some great trades here and there, but the simple fact of the matter is that if you spent an entire quarter going short, and the market hits record highs, you are not going to make money.
Since Slope Plus factors into this post, I’ll mention this one last time .……..a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it. I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, type in the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free.
Note that this coupon is only going to be working for a few days, so don’t lollygag. Also please note this discount works for ANNUAL subscriptions as well, so you’ll save the most by going for an annual, since you get two months free already.
Besides all the normal extras you get as a Slope Plus subscriber, you’ll also be getting the very best ideas I’ve got (many of which have been doing really well, even in this market, as you’ll see once you have access). I hope you’ll give it a try. On with the regular post now…………
I have, over the long lifespan of Slope, mentioned some emotional scars from childhood during that period of time when it seems virtually everyone in my generation had a complete suck time: middle school. It seems that a few random verbal assaults of “fag” or “dick” can persist for decades.
Note from Tim: our own Davis Ramsey was kind enough to compose this breakdown of his trading performance. I’d say he’s got Gartman beat!
Conducting a thorough year end review of your trading results is of the utmost importance. While regular monthly reviews are good snapshots and can keep you on the right track, looking back over a full year can show you some important big picture mistakes or successes that you might otherwise overlook.
Greetings from the Knight household, as each member of my beloved family is doing their own thing. Me? I’m composing you a post for absolutely no charge. I’m a helluva guy, aren’t I? Let’s begin our story.
About a week ago, I got a series of tweets from a fellow whom I don’t know and have never heard about. He wanted me to know about a big bet he was making………..
Over the past six years or so, the VIX has been carving out an enormous saucer-shaped pattern. I’ve been dutifully tinting the price peaks (that is, the mini-panics) all along the way, and it forms a pretty interesting, if highly irregular, pattern.
Welcome to November, Slopers!
It wasn’t that long ago that every day, like clockwork, the market would rally for the last half of the day (if not more). I would frequently bemoan this, and folks both here and on Twitter would say something along the lines of, “Well, ya idiot, take advantage of it!” But I never did.
Good thing, too, because this “sure thing” has become a “sure loser” almost every single time. ZeroHedge put together a graph showing (in circles) the end-of-day action, and in almost all cases, it’s down (there are a tiny number, not circled, that are up). It just goes to show that the “easy” answers aren’t always the right ones.
I’m making an adjustment to my posts from now on where instead of simply speculating about future market direction, I’m going to offer a trade idea and plan. (insert customary disclaimer, educational purposes only, blah blah, I can’t make you buy or sell, use the plan at your own risk, etc. etc.) So let’s get to it.
The Context: As some of us are painfully aware, the S&P500 has been making higher lows and lower highs since the low of September 12th resulting in a triangle-like pattern.