Over the past six years or so, the VIX has been carving out an enormous saucer-shaped pattern. I’ve been dutifully tinting the price peaks (that is, the mini-panics) all along the way, and it forms a pretty interesting, if highly irregular, pattern.
Welcome to November, Slopers!
It wasn’t that long ago that every day, like clockwork, the market would rally for the last half of the day (if not more). I would frequently bemoan this, and folks both here and on Twitter would say something along the lines of, “Well, ya idiot, take advantage of it!” But I never did.
Good thing, too, because this “sure thing” has become a “sure loser” almost every single time. ZeroHedge put together a graph showing (in circles) the end-of-day action, and in almost all cases, it’s down (there are a tiny number, not circled, that are up). It just goes to show that the “easy” answers aren’t always the right ones.
I’m making an adjustment to my posts from now on where instead of simply speculating about future market direction, I’m going to offer a trade idea and plan. (insert customary disclaimer, educational purposes only, blah blah, I can’t make you buy or sell, use the plan at your own risk, etc. etc.) So let’s get to it.
The Context: As some of us are painfully aware, the S&P500 has been making higher lows and lower highs since the low of September 12th resulting in a triangle-like pattern.
I’m in no mood to be a hero against Janet “anti-Christ” Yellen this week, so I’ve lightened up considerably, having gone from 70 positions to a mere 45 and a 150% commitment (vis a vis my buying power) to 100%. I want the little three-foot beast to get out of the way before I try to do anything cute with the market. I’m laying relatively low until Wednesday blows over.
This is mildly interesting; I was listening to a Jerry Lewis interview from the late 1960s, and one of those “stocks that got away” stories came up. Here’s the clip, and if you scroll to the 8:27 mark, you can see it immediately:
There’s probably not a lot of value in this post, since it’s primarily just me bitching, but here goes: in each of the past two days, I’ve had positions stopped out at a loss due to an earnings report that was interpreted positively (at first), only to be followed by the stock IMMEDIATELY selling off. This is one from this morning: