Since January 2013 we have been using the worldwide Semiconductor Equipment industry as a leader within the Semiconductor sector, which is an economic cyclical leader itself. That month we noted a positive move in Equipment bookings, which became a (3 month) trend that spring. This trend was used to project positive economic signals to come.
Through some turbulence in 2014 and 2015 the sector has remained on ‘economic up’ along with our cross reference indicator, the Palladium/Gold ratio right up to the current time as the economic Canary in a Coal Mine has kept on chirping.
But on November 21, two days before the sector topped I derisively poked at the mainstream media for hyping the Semiconductor Equipment sector with its bold headline… Fund manager looks beyond ‘FAANG’ stocks and finds even bigger winners for 2018. Talk about eyeball harvesting and greed stimulation. (more…)
The canary chirped in 2013 as its equipment sector ramped up its bookings and we kept up with the bullish data every step of the way after that with updates like this one.
Semi Sector & Stock Market (2014)
The canary chirped again, as we noted amid much resistance if not outright contempt (this is when a supposed tech “expert” was held up in stern refutation of my stance, by a former subscriber whose trusted experts were then bullish gold and bearish Semi *).
AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode (2016)
Then in November 2017 it was time to begin a new narrative as the MSM pumped a fund manager who, though bullish the FANGs, thought he’d found some great relative value for 2018 in the Semi sector. The link below clearly refutes that and gives reason to believe that these goofy troubadours in the MSM are going to lead a lot of new market participants to slaughter. (more…)
The big pop that took place because of the massive tax fraud being rammed up the middle class’ backside has, shall we say, lost its potency over in NASDAQ-land.
In spite of what you’ve heard, shorting stocks in 2017 has not been like shooting yourself in the foot. Don’t believe it. Because at least when you shoot yourself in the foot, it causes some excitement and, later, sympathy.
In spite of this, for those foolish enough to give it another whirl, the two big auto parts retailers are rocketing up toward massive amounts of overhead supply.
As can be seen on the Year-to-date percentages-gained/lost graph below, the Technology sector (XLK) leads the other eight major sectors in gains, so far, this year.
What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I was bullish on 1.5 years ago. I know, I know… I sold too soon and that is my issue and I have to own it. But the point is that it was hard to buy then, unlike now.