It seems almost beyond belief that last month we were running around barefoot in a VIX that was in the 30s. We have now returned to the moribund slog of a sub-teen VIX. It hasn’t broken its uptrend yet, but by God, this week is looking like a snoozer.
Could fear possibly return to this virtually-always-levitating market of ours? In my post from October 16, I suggested XIV (the opposite of VIX) was “ready to rally.” Rally it did, but I think it may be poised to tumble (which means that fear will come swooshing back into this “market” of ours).
Way back on August 30, I did a post called Past Fear, Present Fear, which offered up an analog of the VIX (please read it if you don’t remember; it’s a pretty good post). I would daresay it was one of the best posts I did in 2014, and things certainly unfolded as I hoped they would (although today was no fun for me). I followed up on October 9th with my Moment of Truth post, which was just before the markets started really falling hard. Thus – so far, so good. (more…)
I got a brief scare this morning when I saw the ES was down hard, but it didn’t take long for the market to shake off its fear and power higher. This is precisely what I want because (1) I’ve got a lot of longs (2) I want the market, per my video last night and the post the night before, to get back to an attractive shorting level. As fear leaks out of the market, you’re going to see the XIV (the VIX symbol backwards – clever, huh?) push up. I’m looking forward to bulls feeling at-ease again. The next level we’ve got to cross above is 1864.75 on the ES, so watch it closely. It’s important.
As of 2:00 pm today (Wednesday), and further to my post of October 9th, price in equities has plunged to the next major support level of 60.00, after failing to hold a critical level of 100.00, as shown on the 20-Year Daily ratio chart of SPX:VIX below.
Price on this ratio chart now sits at levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. A break and hold below this level could, indeed, cause some panic selling in equities…one to watch very closely over the coming days/weeks!
I’ll post an updated chart after the market closes today…check back here for the update.
There is a lot of confusion about the VIX’s high today, because I’ve been stating over and over how I’d cover everything between 22 and 23 on the VIX. The VIX peaked at 20.56 today, as shown with this intraday chart: