Category Archives: Sentiment

Is Gold Hated Enough?

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By Biiwii

goldAn article by Mark Hulbert jogged the title’s question into my mind:

This Bear Market in Gold Still Has too Many Bulls

With respect to the reasons for owning gold, I never flinch when taking a long-term value perspective. In the monetary and financial world gold is insurance and insurance is something you buy, but hope to never need. The value of insurance is in one of its definitions: “a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality”.

It is good news that this ‘thing’ has not been needed as modern policy making has worked to mostly desired effects, as asset markets have been pumped by inflationary policies that have not (yet) had a commensurate level of risk discovery.

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Irrational Real Estate

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I’ve done many, many posts about the insane real estate market here in the Bay Area. I’m not going to bore you with another “can you believe how much they want for this?” because, by now, I think you kind of get the point.

However, this week, in the venerable Palo Alto Weekly (which, as is typical for the newspapers around here, has a publishing frequency that has absolutely no correlation to its moniker) a local real estate agent, Xin Jiang (pronounced “Xin Jiang”) composed the following article, which I have helpfully highlighted for you: (more…)

Margin Debt Redux

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The following was kindly contributed by Paul from Maine……..

I’ve been fiddling with some numbers in Excel and thought you’d find it interesting. It concerns the correlation of NYSE margin debt with the S&P 500.

Margin gives investors and traders the opportunity to borrow money in order to enhance their returns. NYSE margin debt concerns the aggregate value borrowed by all participants utilizing that particular exchange.

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VIX’s Bollinger Band and the S&P

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Below is a chart that shows a nice correlation between the price action of VIX and SPY and their 20, 2 Bollinger Band. What the chart shows is that typically when the VIX hits the upper level of its Bollinger band along with SPY hitting the bottom of its BB, it marks a low in the market and a bouncing point. It is same on the opposite side of the Bollinger Band, so when VIX touches the bottom of its BB and SPY touches the top, this marks a top in the market.

VIX touched the touch of its BB yesterday but SPY did not. This pattern usually jump starts when both hit the BB and the VIX will typically hover around its BB for 2 – 4 candles. For SPY to hit its BB it would need to get to 203.38, which is right around the March lows. This correlation is pretty strong and it shows there is some potential for further downside but it is limited. Plus our signal is flashing oversold I know not music to Slopers ears so be careful!

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