Category Archives: Sentiment

A Change in Tone

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“Well, you see Willard . . . In this war, things get confused out there, power, ideals, the old morality, practical military necessity. But out there with these natives, it must be a temptation to be god. Because there’s a conflict in every human heart, between the rational and the irrational, between good and evil. And good does not always triumph. Sometimes, the dark side overcomes what Lincoln called the better angels of our nature. Every man has got a breaking point. You and I have one. Walter Kurtz has reached his. And very obviously, he has gone insane.”

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The Fatted Calf

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The level of bear despair yesterday was impressive, and the percentage of bulls is now 62.2%, as compared to previous highs at 61.6% at the end of 2013, 62% in October 2007, 62.9% in December 2000 and 60.8% in August 2007. All of these previous readings were signals that large rallies were ….. um …….. ending, and that significant highs were being made.

I was delighted yesterday to identify the pattern for the current move, when the low yesterday established a perfect rising channel from the last lows at 1862. This is excellent news as we now have a clear marker for when the current move is ending at the break of channel support there. That break will signal that this move is topped or topping, though a retest of the highs would be routine after such a break, so it would be important not to jump on that break too hard when it happens. SPX 5min chart: (more…)

To Go Where No VIX Has Gone Before

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The rather ridiculous truncated graph shown below seeks to make a point. I am showing the kind of depths the VIX presently is in, and how infrequently it has “lived” there. In fact, for over six years, this is practically uncharted territory. Back in the days of the housing buble, the VIX found itself comfortably around the $11 to $12 level (and, on one occasion, even cracked beneath $10), but, let’s face it, this is a level of complacency virtually unknown to the markets………

0524-vix (more…)

Farewell to the Fire

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If one graph captures the multi-year juggernaut of complacency that has swept the market, it is the VXX. With the $VIX cracking into the $11.xx zone earlier today (and, who knows, we might even see single digits this year!) one wonders if peace and contentment will be with us through the year 3157. This is a sight to behold:

0512-vxx