As some of you have already read, the volatility index ($VIX) went single-digits on us today, which hasn’t happened for over a decade. Indeed, we’ve been mired in low volatility for a long time, and ULTRA low volatility for over a week now. Here’s the long-term view:
While the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is busy making new all-time highs, so is the NDX:VXN ratio (VXN is the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index), as shown on the following two Monthly charts.
What is different about these two, is that the NDX:VXN ratio has run up against major resistance (the top of its long-term uptrending channel, while the NDX has a long way to go before it does the same.
With reference to the ratio chart, a drop and hold below the 460 level (127.2% external Fibonacci retracement level) could forecast a drop down to, potentially, major support at 380 (100% Fib retracement level plus bottom of long-term channel) on this chart, or lower.
Everywhere you look – – green, green, green, lifetime highs, soaring charts, with one notable exception. Volatility, of course! The fear index $VIX has, in just 1.5 years, collapsed from 53.29 to almost the single digits. Indeed, there is only ONE time in the past decade it’s been even a little bit lower, and that was back on January 27th. This is about as low as it goes, folks.
Even though the S&P 500 Index (SPX) did not reach a new all-time high today (Monday), the SPX:VIX ratio did, as shown on the following two Daily charts.
Keep an eye on the ratio, since an RSI above 50 and upside crossovers on the MACD and PMO indicators are signalling that a new bull market is shaping up for the SPX. Such a breakout would need to be confirmed by a bullish crossover on the PMO, with the crossover maintained on the MACD and the 50 level held on the RSI on the SPX.
Look, we are all wrong sometimes. That is because the markets are this way one day, that way the next and then something else the day after that. That is why we need bigger picture plans.
I for instance, have been guarded on the gold sector and technically at least, still need to see some upside parameters taken out. But today’s market information brings a potential fundamental underpinning as the stock market flirts with some important parameters of its own.
My long-held goal of vaulting back up to the VIX trendline is slowly materializing. I’m baffled that the market is so strong with this going on, but it is what it is.
Having said that, I can’t help but express disappointment that, yet again, a sell-off was quickly squelched. It would be nice if it actually stuck one of these days.
Hey, look, I’m as pissed as anyone that the sell-off has been smothered in its crib (thanks, Gartman!) but I want to offer you this silver lining: