Some of you know that I’ve been online longer than some of my readers have been alive. I first went online in 1982, and I’ve been on ever since. I have what I think is a strong understanding of the nature of online communities, and I’m proud of the one we have created here (particularly thanks to the comments system, which was developed by me and totally unique to the Slope of Hope).
For those of you who would like to know some important facts about the comments system, please click this link. I especially encourage lurkers (that is, non-participants) to do so.
Through the ten+ years that Slope has been around, the community has, on the whole, proved itself to be remarkably cordial, helpful, and resilient. I confess there are a few folks that hang out in comments that I’d be nervous meeting in a public place, but overall they’re a likeable bunch. (If you’d like to get a taste of the kind of hostile, packed-with-nutjobs place a financial blog comments section can be like, just read the first couple dozen of these comments on a recent ZeroHedge post).
Old-time Slopers will recognize this gem from the blog’s past. Newcomers will wonder what on earth is going on. Please note this video is very much NSFW, particularly as it progresses. And, yes, this seriously was a legitimate English instruction video.
I received an email today that I found somewhat troubling, and it compelled me to write this post. In the email, the reader was concerned that, in spite of my bravado declared in this weekend’s Sell and Hold post, I had (on Friday and today, that is, Monday) covered a meaningful number of my shorts and had partially retreated. She felt it wasn’t very “transparent” to state, on the one hand, that I hoped to hold onto positions for months, and yet on the other, beat a quick path to the Exit door the moment trouble arrived.
I think it would be beneficial for me to explain my style and method to help reconcile those two realities cited above, because I’m comfortable living with the paradox, and I want readers to know that I’m being forthright with them.
Greetings from Atlanta, Georgia, where I’m able to actually use water without guilt (as opposed to California, where we are all praying El Nino actually comes through this winter). I managed to eek my way through the trading day on a plane with a GoGo Internet connection, which is ungodly slow and painful, but it is better than nothing (although just barely).
It was an odd trading day. I was so relieved that the quarter was closed, I didn’t let it faze me too badly that the ES was soaring on the night of the 30th. Gartman finally yelled “Uncle!” in the middle of the night so, as God intended, the markets promptly changed course, and when I woke up they were barely even in the green. It’s too bad the plunge during the day got reversed, and in the end, it was one of those days that might have well just have never bothered opening.
I did a Slope+ post back on September 6th titled Is Plus Too Cheap? You can probably guess what it is about. I wrote, in part, the following:
I’d like to ask Slope Plus folks a very quick favor: to take literally a moment to fill out a one-question survey. I want to make one point emphatic right now: the price you pay for Slope Plus is NOT going to change. I simply want to take a survey for FUTURE subscribers. So don’t worry about shooting yourself in the foot!
As you’ve probably already gathered, I’m wondering if I am selling Slope Plus too cheaply. I work quite hard on the content, but my brain is kind of stuck in the world of what prices were back in 1985 or so. I still think a plane ticket from SFO to LAX should be about $39, and I’m surprised when it’s five times that much. So I think the same kind of “anchoring” caused me to badly underprice Plus.
I recently did a post about my odd relationship with Elliott Wave. A Sloper sent a very thoughtful email which I thought you’d find of interest. He has given me permission to publish it:
I’m a long time Slope reader, but rarely read comments and have never contributed (I just don’t have the time). Your recent post, My Odd Relationship with EW, really struck a cord so I thought you might find my experience somewhat interesting.
I was an Elliott Wave Theorist subscriber for years, roughly 1983-1990. While I was too late for the 1982 market blast off, subsequently read back issues verified that the EWT had nailed it. My live time experience for the first 4 years was exceptional. As you said in your post I was “stunned at its prescience”. The EWT called the temporary top in late 83 (best recollection on dates) and then the bottom in 84. And was preaching coming explosion higher.