Recent: Blanks of the trader

Recap

Last weeks anticipated strength of JPY converted into correctional move only in case of CAD/JPY pair. Whether other currencies will follow remains to be seen. The most likely to follow is AUD/JPY at the moment, while USD/JPY and GBP/JPY although looking overextended to the north taking short positions has to be exercised with caution in my book. Another currency that is likely to strengthen this week is EUR. ECB will have it's rates announcement on Thursday. As it stands at the moment the only outcome that could weaken EUR further would be ECB's version of QE announcement.  

Weekly Currency Board Prime Risk Events (UTC time)  Monday German CPI (September, preliminary), 1pm:  From growth of 0.9% last month, the figure is expected to ease back to 0.8%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS core personal consumption expenditure (August), 1.30pm: This closely-watched gauge of US consumer spending growth is expected to drop back to 1.4% for the month, from a July reading of 1.5%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesUS pending home sales (August), 3pm: The year-on-year rate is forecast to rebound with growth of 2% from last month’s drop of 2.7%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses Tuesday Japan unemployment rate (August), 12.30am: The jobless rate is not expected to change from 3.8%. Market to watch: Japan 225, USD/JPYHSBC China mfg PMI (September, final), 2.45am: The data is not expected to be revised, with the index remaining unchanged at 50.5. Market to watch: All major indices, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, copperGerman unemployment (September), 8.55am: While the rate holds steady at 6.7%, the actual number is expected to drop by 5000, from August’s increase of 2000. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUK GDP (Q2, final), 9.30am: Neither the quarter-on-quarter nor the year-on-year rate is expected to be revised, holding steady at 0.8% and 3.2% respectively. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBPEurozone unemployment (August), CPI (September), 10am: The jobless rate is forecast to remain at 11.5%, while price growth should drop back to 0.3% from 0.4% last month. Market to watch: EStoxx 50, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS Case-Shiller house price index (July), 2pm: House price growth across the 20 major cities surveyed for this report is expected to be 0.1% month-on-month, up from -0.2%, while the YoY figure is forecast to drop back to 7.45% from 8.1%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesChicago PMI (September), 2.45pm: The August figure was 64.3, with the September number expected to drop to 61. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesUS consumer confidence (September), 3pm: No change is forecast here, with the figure remaining at 92.4. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses Wednesday China manufacturing PMI (September), 2am: The official number is expected to fall back to 51, from the August reading of 51.1. Market to watch: all major indices, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, copperUK manufacturing PMI (September) 9.30am: The September reading is forecast to rise to 52.9, from August’s 52.5. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBPUS ADP employment change (September), 1.15pm: The prelude to the non-farm payrolls on Friday, this report from the payroll firm ADP is expected to show jobs growth of 202,000 in September, from 204,000 in August. Market to watch: All major indices, dollar crossesUS EIA crude inventories, 3.30pm: Last week’s numbers showed a drop in inventories, giving US light crude prices a boost. Market to watch: US Light Crude Thursday UK construction PMI (September), 9.30am: Although the reading is expected to drop back slightly, to 63.3 from 64, this PMI is the least important of the three to the UK economy, so it’s impact is likely to be limited. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBPECB decision (October), 12.45pm, press conference 1.30pm: Mario Draghi has been busy this week reassuring markets that the ECB can do more, but he is unlikely to unveil fresh measures at this meeting. Expect further calls for additional structural reforms in member states. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: The number rose by 12,000 last week, but is expected to drop back to around 286,000 this week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesUS factory orders, (August), 3pm: These are expected to contract by 9.9%, from July growth of 10.5%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses Friday China non-manufacturing PMI (September), 2am: From a figure of 54.4 in August, the number is expected to rise to 55.02, which would allay some concerns about economic weakness in China. Market to watch: all major indices, AUD/USD, USD/JPYFrench, German, eurozone services PMIs (September, final), 8.50-9am: The French numbers are expected to remain in contraction territory, below the 50 mark, but Germany and the eurozone should show modest improvement. Market to watch: EStoxx 50, CAC, DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUK services PMI (September), 9.30am: The August figure was a robust 60.5, but September’s should show a drop, to 58.6. Given this covers the largest area of the UK economy, a poor reading could damage the pound.  Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBPEurozone retail sales (August), 10am: these are expected to rise by 0.1% MoM, from a drop of 0.4% in July, meanwhile the YoY figure, which saw 0.8% growth in July, is expected to rise once again, up 1.28%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate (September), 1.30pm: the August number was notably weak, at 142K, but the September number should rebound, with payroll growth of 205K. The jobless rate should hold steady at 6.1%. Market to watch: All indices, currency crossesUS ISM non-manufacturing index (September), 3pm: the final number of the week is forecast to show a drop to 58.5, from 59.6. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

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