Recent: 11/19/14 Sentiment Timing Update - Sentiment Timing

11/19/14 Sentiment Timing Update - Sentiment Timing

 It is of note that stocks have gone nowhere for 6 days while generic optimism has continued.  Last week, there was a local negative energy due early this week which has been threatening but has not yet become overt.

The 10/15 “Black Hole” (0%) Capitulation confirmed the “Ebola Low” which continues to be ratified as very significant.

The best Sentiment interpretation remains that the Extreme Low sentiment of “0%” coincided with an unusual Capitulation Low on 10/15. The Rebound was only stymied by the 96% Bullish reading, but only produced some sideways tape. The degree and persistence of the Recovery was and remains generically Bullish.

 This is low probability environment. The low volume, holiday type market is hard to get a real read on it.  Stock markets do not offer any really cogent timing and until the 2035 low is taken out, the bullish tone remains in tact.

When looking at the NYAD (NY adv/decl)  we were expecting  some type of phase 2 down to start-based off of the negative divergence on the $NYAD chart. Instead we just went sideways  That suggests we are still in the phase 1 and need to see things reset again.

With the low volume and bullish seasonality, it may take time for things to reset.  The market is always right! We look for clues for reversals, but when they don’t play out, you don’t want to fight what is taking place. Right now, that is a very strong bullish move going on-without any breathers. Today’s move down looks organized and there is not any panic feel to it.

Until the bears can push the SPX below the 2035 line, expecting higher levels is probably the best bet right now. Now if today’s drop picks up momentum, that would catch may traders leaning the wrong way. As of right now-there are no real signs of a breakdown and will most likely turn into another buying opportunity. It makes no sense to try and figure out why-just go with the flow.

Comments

007 perky pooper007 perky pooper
This is beautiful, thank you 11/20/14
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