User: Idiot Wind: Macro Chaos: The Olympics: No Gold Medal for Investors - Total Return - WSJ

Associated Press A display of international flags across the street from Big Ben in London.

The Olympics begin Friday night, and while investors can bet on the games, they should hold off betting on big market returns.

According to  a report from Saeed Amen, a quantitative strategist at Nomura International, the short-term performance of various asset classes around the Olympics leaves much to be desired. Since 1976, stocks of the host nation have lost 4% during the two weeks before the beginning of the Olympics, gained 1% during the games  and lost 1.8% during the two weeks following the closing ceremonies.

Investors should also resist going  for the gold, Amen’s data shows: The precious metal lost 2.5% in the two weeks before the Olympics started, 0.4% during the games and 0.2% during the two weeks after the end.

Who’s the big winner? The Wall Street Journal projects the U.S. will lead the medal count, and U.S. stocks may be the best overall performer. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has lost 0.3% during the two weeks before the games, has gained 1.4% during the completion and lost just 0.2% during the two weeks after the games ended.

The upshot: Enjoy the games, but keep your expectations low for the stock market.