Users: Tim Knight: All Pages

bfm124F.jpg (860×639)
bfm124F.jpg (860×639)
Tim Knight
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image-38_1.png (564×410)
Of al the gains in stocks since 2011, a full 27% is from share buybacks
Tim Knight
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2024 cumulative fiscal.jpg (1280×871)
Tim Knight
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Presidential-Elections-Stock-Mar (1).jpg (831×513)
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bfmD6CB.jpg (935×507)
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stat expensive spx.jpg (1026×528)
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top 10% of stocks vs entire stock market_0.jpg (1041×587)
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bfm55D_2.jpg (921×522)
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asset managers futs.jpg (1280×687)
Tim Knight
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Federal-Deficit-as-Percentage-of.jpg (977×730)
Tim Knight
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Federal-Debt-as-Percentage-of-GD.jpg (973×662)
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2024-02-09_10-36-18.jpg (944×722)
2024-02-09_10-36-18.jpg (944×722)
S&P 500 is up for 14 of the last 15 weeks for the first time since March 1972...
Tim Knight
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bfmD808.jpg (969×589)
Tim Knight
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spx cap equal.jpg (1274×706)
S&P 500 Index gained 1.6% last month, its equal-weighted counterpart slumped 0.9% (again).
Tim Knight
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divergence since 1987.jpg (1274×731)
biggest divergence in breadth since the Black Monday crash in 1987, data from SentimenTrader shows.
Tim Knight
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payrolls vs employment jan 24.jpg (1275×737)
payrolls vs employment jan 24.jpg (1275×737)
Tim Knight
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Snag_52a85f2d.png (1280×704)
Used car prices
Tim Knight
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mag 7 bubble bursts_0.jpg (1280×567)
Tim Knight
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magnificent seven 1.jpg (1027×740)
Tim Knight
rubner17.png (699×411)
rubner17.png (699×411)
Nice illustration about how trading based on statistics can be a giant waste of time
Tim Knight
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rubner1_0.png (738×395)
rubner1_0.png (738×395)
Tim Knight
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rubner9_0.png (552×379)
Tim Knight
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d7dddbccfd687d19ac60c6ed159416cc.png (1337×885)
NASDAQ volatility lowest in the history of the universe
Tim Knight
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ce1cde179ea4e24ef68af21399d2ff8d.png (690×521)
Bulls are ALL IN, higher than ever
Tim Knight
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2023-12-07_09-18-27.jpg (1280×930)
2023-12-07_09-18-27.jpg (1280×930)
So Obamacare has caused insurance premiums to go up hundreds of percent. Terrific!
Tim Knight
2023-12-07_09-18-56.jpg (1280×921)
2023-12-07_09-18-56.jpg (1280×921)
Thanks, Mister President!
Tim Knight
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bfm646B.jpg (937×505)
Tim Knight
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interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
interest vs military budgetr.jpg (987×548)
Tim Knight
2024 seasonality.png (909×573)
2024 seasonality.png (909×573)
Tim Knight
reaction_map_JPM.png
reaction_map_JPM.png
Earnings season kicks off in the morning with JP Morgan!
Tim Knight
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a8ec1e835735bc0788ae9da6e60cc8f7.png (1309×856)
Tim Knight
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over.JPG (685×528)
Tim Knight
F4tLZuZakAEel7p (730×518)
F4tLZuZakAEel7p (730×518)
Tim Knight
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bfm5ED7.jpg (922×642)
The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
Tim Knight
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household debt service payments.jpg (1280×720)
Tim Knight
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total debt balances q2_0.jpg (1280×926)
total debt balances q2_0.jpg (1280×926)
The US now has $17.1 trillion in household debt: $12 trillion in mortgages, $1.6 trillion in auto loans, $1.6 tril...
Tim Knight
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image024 (2).jpg (592×738)
August’s past and ugly seasonality...
Tim Knight
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image020 (4).png (603×291)
Dealer positioning dynamic into August expiration, being extremely short VIX Calls
Tim Knight
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bfm838F_0.jpg (903×592)
Nomura Warns Of Imminent VIXplosion
Tim Knight
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pxayd9xsjkgb1.jpg (1080×844)
Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
Tim Knight
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F1qBup0XsAEhnZA (1179×743)
Tim Knight
cumulative deficits_1.jpg (1280×807)
cumulative deficits_1.jpg (1280×807)
US federal deficit for fiscal 2023 up a staggering $1tn to $1.4tn from year before...
Tim Knight
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era of fiscal excess_1.jpg (857×500)
Waste, waste, and more waste
Tim Knight
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Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Debt-Free-Growth-Economic-Deficit.jpg (883×519)
Tim Knight
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
Debt-To-GDP-Growth-2009-Present-1024x565.jpg (1024×565)
Tim Knight
Debt-To-GDP-by-President.jpg (908×578)
Debt-To-GDP-by-President.jpg (908×578)
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cpi hartnett_1.jpg (653×516)
Tim Knight
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net long.jpg (450×325)
Equity futures positioning
Tim Knight
annualized interest payments_1.jpg (1050×602)
annualized interest payments_1.jpg (1050×602)
The annual payment on US Federal debt is about to hit $1 trillion, surpassing how much the US pays every year on d...
Tim Knight
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image (55)_0.png (1258×678)
Tim Knight
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0s2xe8gk2ldb1.jpg (1000×1100)
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US vs Japan CPI.jpg (1261×644)
US vs Japan CPI.jpg (1261×644)
Japanese inflation is now higher than that in the US for the first time since October 2015.
Tim Knight
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2023-07-21_07-35-20.jpg (607×395)
Despite being within 6% of its highs, the S&P is still in historical bear-market territory.
Tim Knight
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2023-07-21_08-51-32.jpg (807×584)
Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve like no one else ever has........
Tim Knight
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2023-07-20_08-52-18.jpg (1065×518)
2023-07-20_08-52-18.jpg (1065×518)
Shown below are is the performance of the SPX after each 3rd Friday expiration.
Tim Knight
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21465.jpeg (1200×1200)
Tim Knight
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bfm79DF.jpg (953×577)
Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
Tim Knight
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TCMDO5-23a_2.png (550×460)
total credit (TCMDO)
Tim Knight
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minsky moment chart_1.jpg (1024×576)
Tim Knight
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2023-07-12_16-01-33.png (544×468)
Tim Knight
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bfm73B1.jpg (971×598)
US equity market continues to decouple higher from the declining trend in bank reserves at The Fed...
Tim Knight
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fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
fed funds vs spx.jpg (1252×665)
The S&P 500 is now ~3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022...
Tim Knight
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tp16.png (953×563)
M2 growth is printing negative for the first time in ~90 years
Tim Knight
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tp11.png (949×563)
tp11.png (949×563)
headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
Tim Knight
tp6.png (1280×726)
tp6.png (1280×726)
Speaking of NDX, the July seasonals are superb: up 15 of the last 15 for an average return of 4.64%:
Tim Knight
tp3_0.png (960×672)
tp3_0.png (960×672)
horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
Tim Knight
tp1_0.png (1065×696)
tp1_0.png (1065×696)
6-week trading range in S&P
Tim Knight
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tp18.png (800×600)
Tim Knight
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spx hit rate.jpg (864×657)
Tim Knight
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Nashville-vacancy-rate-1.png (1000×621)
Tim Knight
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National-Airbnb-2.png (1280×952)
Tim Knight
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breadth very weak MS.jpg (1113×596)
Tim Knight
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breadth extremely negative.jpg (1103×589)
Tim Knight
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
spx fair value.jpg (882×474)
"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
Tim Knight
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ERP_2.jpg (887×474)
Tim Knight
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PMI vs SPX.jpg (886×473)
Tim Knight
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download (47).png (715×432)
US Equity Sentiment Indicator is in stretched territory for the first time since April 2021
Tim Knight
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download (27)_3.png (775×594)
Tim Knight
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download (20)_7.png (775×594)
Quarter-End Pension Fund Portfolio Rebalancing: You are now funded. Big equity rebalance for sale:
Tim Knight
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
download (18)_7.png (771×594)
Remember when US futures positioning was short -$510 Billion notional on 9/13/22. It is long $20 Billion today.
Tim Knight
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GS SI indicator.png (715×432)
S&P Positioning Is The "Most Extended Ever"
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bfm8206_0.jpg (1023×609)
Tim Knight
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bulls v bears.png (775×578)
Tim Knight
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credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
credit card interest rate may 2023_1.jpg (1012×568)
Tim Knight
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2023-06-12_11-18-47.jpg (909×500)
Tesla's stock price rose for the 12th straight day - the longest winning streak in the company's history...
Tim Knight
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746cd2f1b6e9fbb2ab2aa448b0596331.png (1176×553)
Tim Knight
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wealth1_0.jpg (1072×781)
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top 10.JPG (637×517)
Tim Knight
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CS national.jpg (700×499)
Tim Knight
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case mish.jpg (700×426)
Tim Knight
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bfm6FA1.jpg (1023×607)
The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
Tim Knight
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bfmEBF7.jpg (1023×612)
Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
Tim Knight
CBO debt forecast 2.15.2023_5.jpg (1191×670)
CBO debt forecast 2.15.2023_5.jpg (1191×670)
US Debt Will Rise From $31 Trillion To $50 Trillion By 2030
Tim Knight
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bfmCF8A.jpg (1016×569)
Tim Knight
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bfm37CC_0.jpg (941×543)
Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
Tim Knight
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4g6jj65xag3b1.png (1658×1354)
Tim Knight
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bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
Tim Knight
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bfm5A47_1.jpg (941×563)
May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
Tim Knight
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bfmA1C8.jpg (941×565)
Debt-Ceiling drama is fading fast with USA CDS compressing..
Tim Knight
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45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
Tim Knight