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Tim Knight
: All Pages
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Of al the gains in stocks since 2011, a full 27% is from share buybacks
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S&P 500 is up for 14 of the last 15 weeks for the first time since March 1972...
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S&P 500 Index gained 1.6% last month, its equal-weighted counterpart slumped 0.9% (again).
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biggest divergence in breadth since the Black Monday crash in 1987, data from SentimenTrader shows.
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Used car prices
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Nice illustration about how trading based on statistics can be a giant waste of time
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NASDAQ volatility lowest in the history of the universe
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Bulls are ALL IN, higher than ever
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So Obamacare has caused insurance premiums to go up hundreds of percent. Terrific!
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Thanks, Mister President!
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Earnings season kicks off in the morning with JP Morgan!
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The market is still pricing in 110 bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year...
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The US now has $17.1 trillion in household debt: $12 trillion in mortgages, $1.6 trillion in auto loans, $1.6 tril...
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August’s past and ugly seasonality...
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Dealer positioning dynamic into August expiration, being extremely short VIX Calls
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Nomura Warns Of Imminent VIXplosion
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Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
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US federal deficit for fiscal 2023 up a staggering $1tn to $1.4tn from year before...
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Waste, waste, and more waste
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Equity futures positioning
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The annual payment on US Federal debt is about to hit $1 trillion, surpassing how much the US pays every year on d...
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Japanese inflation is now higher than that in the US for the first time since October 2015.
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Despite being within 6% of its highs, the S&P is still in historical bear-market territory.
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Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve like no one else ever has........
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Shown below are is the performance of the SPX after each 3rd Friday expiration.
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Jesus........US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade...
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total credit (TCMDO)
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US equity market continues to decouple higher from the declining trend in bank reserves at The Fed...
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The S&P 500 is now ~3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022...
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M2 growth is printing negative for the first time in ~90 years
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headline CPI minus the Fed Funds rate
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Speaking of NDX, the July seasonals are superb: up 15 of the last 15 for an average return of 4.64%:
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horizontal axis is 2022 returns and the vertical axis is 2023 returns
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6-week trading range in S&P
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"Fair value" of the S&P is 3,126
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US Equity Sentiment Indicator is in stretched territory for the first time since April 2021
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Quarter-End Pension Fund Portfolio Rebalancing: You are now funded. Big equity rebalance for sale:
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Remember when US futures positioning was short -$510 Billion notional on 9/13/22. It is long $20 Billion today.
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S&P Positioning Is The "Most Extended Ever"
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Tesla's stock price rose for the 12th straight day - the longest winning streak in the company's history...
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The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
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Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
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US Debt Will Rise From $31 Trillion To $50 Trillion By 2030
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Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
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And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
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May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
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Debt-Ceiling drama is fading fast with USA CDS compressing..
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45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.