Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

This Market Is Incredibly Sick

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This market is getting hard to believe. I went long the /ES and got out as we got to 700 (retracement level). It's frustrating to me that some whiny RL customer won't let 2sweeties permit the display of these images, but, there ya go. I'm going to honor the wish.

It used to be that rallies couldn't seem to last more than a week. Then they couldn't last more than a few days. Then they couldn't last more than one day.

Now it's at the point where they can't last but a few minutes.

Anyway, this market is more ill than I ever dared imagine. Maybe we'll get to 600 before any rally takes place after all.

Jobs Report No Disaster

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Well, the jobs report wasn't the disaster some bears were hoping for, and the /ES went from 678 during nighttime trading to about 690 as I'm typing this. Although the unemployment rate continues to soar, the numbers were roughly in line with expectations, and the /ES instantly shook off the possibility of a jobs-created Friday plunge.

I was going through very long-term charts last night (as I am wont to do when I am feeling uncertain about the market's broad direction), and it convinced me even more strongly that choice "A" from last night's post was more likely than "B". I also find a small error in my $TRAN chart; I had anchored the fan line to the point below where the left arrow is pointing, when in fact it should have been updated to the higher level on the right arrow. Having made this change, yesterday's low of the $TRAN tags the lower fan line marvelously (circled).

Since the market has moved a lot recently, I'll be updating stops (sigh, again…….) this morning. Best of luck to you!

Two Possibilities

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Phew, OK, things will be relatively normal now. Sorry to be so "out of pocket" lately.

I think there are two possibilities before us in the coming weeks, shown below. As you can read in my prior post, I'm more inclined toward "A", on the left (one more small rally before the final plunge), but "B" is still possible. It's pretty clear the jobs report tomorrow will dictate which it is.

I have made some of my best money lately while I'm in bed (it's sort of like being a really well paid gigolo, I suppose, except that I'm snoring at the time). Overnight /ES trades have done well for me, and I have definitely positioned myself for a "just in case" by shorting 40 /ES at 687.50 with a stop above 691.25. At the moment I'm typing this, it's at 684. If we fall hard overnight, and/or the jobs report blows up the market tomorrow, I'd like some protection considering all the big ETF positions I took on near Thursday's close.