Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Easing to 800

By -

After a day like yesterday, it was a relief to wake up to see the /ES somewhat softer. I shorted 20 /ES in my personal account just after the regular market close yesterday, and that has managed to patch up a bit of the damage. Given the current environment, I am keeping my /ES goals quite modest, with a target on this position of just over 800, since I now consider decent support (given its important role as resistance until it blasted through it yesterday).

Good luck today; we all could use some!

National Kool-Aid

By -

I imagine today was really hard on a lot of Slopers. It was no picnic for me. I haven't done my thorough examination of charts (and, amazingly, I got stopped out of very little today), but I wanted to just share some thoughts in bullet form. These are absolutely in no particular order…….

  • The multi-trillion dollar creation of money out of thin air by the government is the one and only reason the market is going up. It is obvious by now that the government will stop at absolutely nothing to create short-term comfort for investors.
  • The creation of all these trillions will come back to haunt us, but it will be a number of months – – maybe not even until next year! – – that this haunting will take place. In the meantime, the markets have plenty of room on the upside to make life miserable for the bears.
  • The key to surviving a market like this is to be flexible. I am known as a very bearish fellow, but I'm not so daft as to take bearishness to dogmatism. I have long positions in nearly 80 different securities, and I intend to hold on to these for as many weeks or months as they survive not getting stopped out. These are not one- or two-day trades. These were bought as "keepers" for the push higher.
  • As I've mentioned a couple of times already, the most alluring group on the long side appears to me to be semiconductors. I also find some financials to be pretty compelling including – – – and may God forgive me – – Capital One Financial (COF).
  • Here's probably the most important point of all – – – the glory days for the bears will return. I wish I could just go into a deep sleep and have them wake me when the Dow is around 10,000 again, because I am horribly impatient. The prospect of waiting around for months for the uber-bear to return really depresses me. But the time will come, and the opportunities will be glorious. Until it comes, let's all try to take advantage of whatever upside there is.
  • In the immediate moment, I think the /ES is likely to return to about 800 (which has now changed coats from Resistance to Support) before pushing higher.

Again, I know there is a lot of pain out there, but as long as sensible stops and sensible sizing are used, you can always live to fight another day. Last Wednesday stunk. Today stunk. But the market is going to do what it's going to do, and to my way of thinking, using charts intelligently is the best way, in the long-run, to survive and thrive. I'm licking my wounds a bit, but I'm ready to take on the market again in the morning. Let's none of us get overly bearish or bullish. Let's take each day at a time, and let's keep learning from one another. We're here to support one another, and it's never more important than at times when the going seems toughest.