Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

What the Buck?

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The first half hour of trading was a real gut-wrencher. With the less-bad jobs report, the initial figure on my portfolio's bottom line was a huge negative number. But after the first few minutes, the losses started falling away like autumn leaves from a tree, and now the figure is……….rubbing eyes…………nicely in the green.

It's amazing what wonders a strong dollar can do on a morning like this

Less Bad to the Rescue!

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The July jobs report came out, and since it's less bad than the worst estimates, the /ES flipped higher nearly twenty points in the span of just a few minutes. Here's the unemployment percentage through July, with last month's peak highlighted with an arrow:


Psychologically, a couple of "phew!" events are going on for most folks: first, the psychologically-troubling double-digit unemployment rate has been averted so far; and second, a graph like this has the sort of "termination to exponential growth" which make the end of a recession seem plausible.

What the market does with the news over the course of the entire day is more interesting to me than what it's done with it before we even open. But, for now, the bulls have another arrow in their quiver.