Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Risk to Da Bears

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This whole "buy the dips" nonsense is in its fifth month of working well for the bulls. Painful, ain't it? It seems that on the rare instances the bears get a respite – – like just a few days ago, on Monday – – it's a "one-hit wonder".

The real risk, I think, is if the market can click above the highs seen earlier this month. We are not far away from them at all, and some of the major patterns that have formed are pretty bullish. Let's take SSO, the ultralong ETF, as an example:

0820-sso

If we break above 31.94, the recent high, that's going to be quite bullish for the market in general. And let's take a look at the even more potent FAS, whose recent high is also marked:

0820-fas

One doesn't have to squint real hard to see that these are good, solid bullish patterns. I have held my nose and start acquiring "lottery longs" again, to try to ameliorate the mountain of shorts that I have.

So, for me, Monday was awesome, and Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday have been rather un-awesome. I know we're in OPEX week, but I don't think the trading world is turned on its head every few weeks. In other words, "that's no excuse."

The funny thing (well, not ha-ha funny, but ouch-funny) is that I used to hold up mid-March to mid-May 2008 as the oh-so-awful, gosh-I-hope-I-never-endure-such-a-thing-again time period. But these five five months make that prior timespan look like remedial kindergarten. The past five months easily "out-brutal" last Spring, so shame on me for even mentioning it, since the trading gods thought they'd have some fun.

Anyway, I think I'm done for the day. I'm a lot less chatty, as you've noticed, on up days versus down days. It's the nature of Slope. Good night!

Year of the Lottery

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One of these days it's going to get through my thick skull that 2009 is the Year of the Lottery Play. It's just about the only thing that's consistently been good for me this year!

Just yesterday, I bought seven lottery plays. Want to guess how many of them are profitable since yesterday? Yep, all seven. And one of them, shown below, is up over 10%. Sheesh!

0820-pmi

The galling thing is that this thing hasn't even broken out yet. If it does, it could move way, way higher. And it's not like the market in general has exploded high in the past day. But these lottery plays seem to be the place where all the juice is.

All Assets the Same

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Going through charts, I'm inclined to agree with the Prechter notion that all assets all the same these days; in other words, they all fall together, and they all rise together. Whether I'm looking at FOREX, energies, financials, general equity indexes, precious metals – – they are all very tightly correlated (or inversely correlated).

Things seems more and more stretched into the "something is going to snap" mode, but as my Lucy-snatching-the-football away suggested, the amount things are getting stretched just seems to go on forever. One clean trendline break I've seen is GLD.

0820-gld

Random remark – to those of you who subscribe to the Kirk Report, there's a long interview of me coming out with him tomorrow. He's going to let me republish it here in several weeks, but for those who already read Kirk, there's your heads-up for ya.

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