Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Getting on the Gold Train

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I've been conflicted about precious metals for a while, mainly because two different prognosticators whom I respect – on one hand, Gary Savage, and on the other, Elliott Wave International. – have had two completely opposing views on gold's direction.

Gary is a shameless gold bull. He describes gold miners as "stupid cheap", and although he acknowledges most people will get whipsawed out of their positions, he is a very committed precious metals bull.

The folks at Elliott Wave, however, have been beating the "gold is heading under $700" drum for what seems like ages. I've been shorting GDX and GLD from time to time – sometimes with success, more recently – – not.

GLD's weird behavior yesterday (strength in the face of adversity) made me reconsider my mildly bearish position, and with today's breakout, I'm long both GLD and GDX. Looking at the graph below, you can see there are a series of progressive higher zones above which GLD must break. With each one, the likelihood of a barnstormer of a bull run gets better.


I'm not a big proponent of inverted H&S patterns at the top of a market, but there's little doubt in my mind that a breakout above 100.44, established 19 months ago, would be extremely positive for gold bulls.

Wet Matches

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I tell ya, just when the market has me trained to balance myself with bullishness as much as I can, it turns out 100% bearishness is the way to go.

What I mean is this – – and I've alluded to this many times in the comments section – – because of the swiftness of yesterday's fall, I thought it would be a good idea to go long the /ES in order to catch up updraft overnight. In other words, I didn't want to be caught totally short in a rising market, so I wanted to take on a big /ES position to take some of the pain away during a bounce-back.

Well, a bounce-back just doesn't seem to be happening. Look at the minute bar graph below. I've tinted in a couple of areas where a launch should have taken place, but it kept flopping.


I gave up about 20% of yesterday's gains through all these "insurance" moves. It feels like I've just been taxed. Anyway, enough of that nonsense. It just isn't working.