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Here's a term I haven't used in a long time – comment cleaner – which is what this post is. I used to do comment cleaners when we would approach (gasp) 100 comments, but this is nuts – – we're at something like 500 now on a Friday evening. So I'll just say one other thing to give some relief to all the scroll wheels out there.
The whole "Atilla" schtick. I like Atilla, and I respect him, but I think those remarks were meant to be snarky. In other words, if someone sticks their neck out and actually makes a firm prediction, they are subject to derision. That's why no one can really pin down the chuckleheads on CNBC; because they don't actually say anything.
More importantly, a lot of people got ticked off that I was thinking the market would "only" go to 600, which was only 10% beneath this March's lows. Ummm, let me explain something – – – I don't go about this by (a) deciding some zany, attention-getting level for the market to fall to and then (b) form-fitting an analysis to produce a concocted result. I mean, Prechter (and Rainbow) are calling for the Dow to get to 400. I think the government would sooner close the equity markets than allow anything to go to that level. Anyway, 440 points off the S&P would suit me just fine, thank you very much. There's plenty I can do with that.
A fellow Sloper brought to my attention the peculiar disconnect between bonds and stocks right now. He also rightly pointed out that bonds tend to be "in the know" earlier than equities. Take a look at what TBT (the ultrashort bond fund) and SPY are doing right now – – –
I think this divergence is going to resolve soon. And I think I know which side is going to compensate.
A Sloper pointed out this headline to me recently………
I never thought of shameless government meddling and intervention as "normal", but I think what the headline means to say is that Stocks Are Going Up Like They Are Supposed To Do.
This article came out this morning in the New York Times, and it's about how small investors are getting back into stocks. One particular quote caught my attention:
While they are poorer today and still leery of the markets’ returns, many are still chasing the gilded promise of profits and wealth. “It’s got a track record,” Linda Blay, a bookkeeper in Orange County, Calif., said of the stock market. While her portfolio is still off by 30 percent, she said that “it outperforms any investment. I think it’ll come back.”
So. It's got a track record. And it outperforms any investment. Any! These are some pretty sweeping conclusions. And – the most important thing – it'll come back.
I don't know how many signs of a top we need before we suffocate under all of them. I've got a new update to my Big Picture page I'll be posting later this morning. I am, as always, not lacking an opinion of my own.
I wouldn't shut up about natural gas (UNG) last week, and here I am again – – but shorting, not buying. All the stuff people were saying about contango about the "closed-end" nature of the ETF are as true now as they were then.