Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Drama Queens

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Here's a term I haven't used in a long time – comment cleaner – which is what this post is. I used to do comment cleaners when we would approach (gasp) 100 comments, but this is nuts – – we're at something like 500 now on a Friday evening. So I'll just say one other thing to give some relief to all the scroll wheels out there.

Two things surprised me about my bold prediction earlier today:

  1. The whole "Atilla" schtick. I like Atilla, and I respect him, but I think those remarks were meant to be snarky. In other words, if someone sticks their neck out and actually makes a firm prediction, they are subject to derision. That's why no one can really pin down the chuckleheads on CNBC; because they don't actually say anything.
  2. More importantly, a lot of people got ticked off that I was thinking the market would "only" go to 600, which was only 10% beneath this March's lows. Ummm, let me explain something – – –  I don't go about this by (a) deciding some zany, attention-getting level for the market to fall to and then (b) form-fitting an analysis to produce a concocted result. I mean, Prechter (and Rainbow) are calling for the Dow to get to 400. I think the government would sooner close the equity markets than allow anything to go to that level. Anyway, 440 points off the S&P would suit me just fine, thank you very much. There's plenty I can do with that.

Anyway, I've said my piece, and time will tell.

My Targets for the S&P 500

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No hedging; no equivocating; no weasel words. I believe the following:

  • The S&P will head down to approximately 950 within the next six weeks before bouncing;
  • It will reach about 790 by early in 2010 (probably by March);
  • It will reach its ultimate low at about 600 in the next few years (2014 or so)

I don't believe we're heading for an apocalyptic plunge.

And I consider all the talk about QE, China, and the Fed to be humanity's five-millionth-freaking-instance of…………………

It's Different This Time.

People. Never. Learn

And that's all I've got to say about that.

What Is Hidden Will Be Revealed

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Tuba mirum spargens sonum
per sepulcra regionum,
coget omnes ante thronum.
 
The trumpet will send its sound
throughout earth's sepulchres
and gather all before the throne.
 
Mors stupebit et natura,
cum resurget creatura,
judicanti responsura.
Liber scriptus proferetur,
in quo totum continetur,
unde mundus judicetur.
 
Death and nature will be astounded,
when all creation rises again,
to answer the judgement.
A book will be brought forth,
in which all will be written,
by which the world will be judged.
 


My next post, I will state my projections for the S&P which I am using as the basis for my own trading. 

Joe and Jane Sixpack

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A Sloper pointed out this headline to me recently………

0910-normal

I never thought of shameless government meddling and intervention as "normal", but I think what the headline means to say is that Stocks Are Going Up Like They Are Supposed To Do.

This article came out this morning in the New York Times, and it's about how small investors are getting back into stocks. One particular quote caught my attention:

While they are poorer today and still leery of the markets’ returns, many are still chasing the gilded promise of profits and wealth. “It’s got a track record,” Linda Blay, a bookkeeper in Orange County, Calif., said of the stock market. While her portfolio is still off by 30 percent, she said that “it outperforms any investment. I think it’ll come back.”

So. It's got a track record. And it outperforms any investment. Any! These are some pretty sweeping conclusions. And – the most important thing – it'll come back.

I don't know how many signs of a top we need before we suffocate under all of them. I've got a new update to my Big Picture page I'll be posting later this morning. I am, as always, not lacking an opinion of my own.

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