I continue to get emails from people puzzling as to why my disposition toward the market is not more dramatic (e.g. end of the world, Dow heading to 400, complete apocalypse). My new double entendre with respect to my view is going to be: "What it lacks in violence, it makes up for in length."
There's nothing tame about a grind-it-out bear market that lasts for years. The last six months have been a gift straight from heaven for the bulls, but I don't think they should get used to it. I don't think an honest-to-God bull market is going to return until about 2014, plus or minus a year. Here's a very simple chart I put together this morning; the intersection of those tinted zones is my sweet spot for when this thing finally turns around.
As for the short term – – as I said, I think we're going to see 950, plus or minus a few points, within weeks. I also don't think we're going to exceed recent highs by more than a few points, if at all.
The bears had an amazing party late 2008/early 2009. The bulls had an amazing party most of 2009. The real work – – no "party" for either side – – begins soon.