Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Individual vs. Index

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As you've probably deduced, I look at a lot of stock charts every day. I greatly prefer taking on individual positions to indexes since – – if the market is generally going my way – – –  they are a lot less work! I'd much rather set up a position and let it stew for weeks on end, ratcheting stops for profit protection along the way, than try to be a gun-slinger with big index trades.

By definition, I tend to prefer issues that have historically shown a lot of volatility and, in the case of shorts, have a large opportunity for downside. ASH is a good example:


Take note not only of the series of lower highs but – important – the 800% rise (!!!!!!!!!!!) since March.

I have entered ASH, as well as a few other shorts, with these stops.

ASH 45.81  

CCL  34.96 

CEDC  34.71  

DD  34.60  

DOW  27.25  

FCX 73.44    

GET  25.86 

JPM  46.50  

MDR 27.31 

SA  29.72  

STP 17.69   

Key Range

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First, since I haven't bothered to put up a spiffy Twitter badge, I'll remind folks you can follow me on Twitter. It's fast; it's free; it's fabulous.

The range I've been mentioning – 1050 to 1070 – is still very much intact. The magenta tint below shows the oh-so-brief-yet-terrifying spike above the range, which just goes to show you cannot always trust breakouts (that goes for the downside as well, as we know!) As this range grinds on, it becomes more important. Take note also of the dense amount of activity I've put a rectangle around; this act as support last night as the /ES briefly took another dip.


In spite of the thrills yesterday, in the grand scheme of things, it was very, very minor with respect to price action (although, as I said last night, quite important psychologically). The quick dip the market took at the beginning of this month (remember that? it's tinted in blue below) was much more substantial, and it only took a couple of days for the entire import of that drop to be eradicated.


The market needs to drop below 1050 to break its little consolidated zone, and it needs to break about 1045 to break that minor trendline. I'm relatively "light" on positions right now, since caution will continue to hold sway until we have a firmer grasp on mid-term direction.