Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I've been thinking a lot about my "philosophical post", and if I have the energy (I've been getting up at about 4 a.m. lately, so I'm not sure………) I'll post it tonight. In the meantime, here are a couple of charts to ponder, both of which I am long.
The first is DIG. I've given up on the idea of this thing getting up to the low 50s, since its neckline has been horribly violated. I do think it makes an interesting short- (and maybe medium-) term play, but it's going to take a lot of strength to get past $37 or so. At this point, I'm a weak handed long; any weakness in this stock will threaten the ascending support line, and a break of that means the game is over (but it would be great for my other positions).
The other is TBT, which is the ultra-bearish-on-bonds instrument It needs to break through that second line I've drawn i order to get some real action.
Everyone get rested for the big day tomorrow – – the Fed fireworks will begin promptly at 2:15 EST.
I'm going to do a philosophical post later today, but I've got to give it some thought first.
In the meantime……….the big news today was Buffett's purchase of BNI. There is no doubt this man is a brilliant businessman and – let's face it – very, very rich. But let's also keep in mind that not everything he touches turns into gold, and just because he is putting a "big bet" on the future of American business, it may not necessarily work out as wonderfully as he is hoping.
His feet are still made of clay, remember. Just really expensive clay.
I have a pretty large short position in PGF, and this one, to my eyes, is a beauty. It certainly isn't something I closed out today; I tightened up my stop a bit, but I think there could be great things ahead for this one.
I went through the tedious but crucial exercise of going through all my positions and either
- Updating the stop, or;
- Closing the position for a profit
I trimmed my universe of shorts from about 210 to 165. I have also taken on two largish long positions – one in UNG, and the other (much larger) in UWM.
I have also, by the way, closed out my largest short position, XLU, for a small profit. So I'm relatively "light" on the bear side right now, waiting for better entry prices. Some of the shorts had dropped in price 20% or more, so I felt it was time to take some money off the table.
I miss the abuse of precious metals bulls – – a passionate group, to be sure – – so I'm shorting GDX (OK, the abuse isn't the real reason; I just think it's a very clean technical trade with a good risk/reward ratio). I sold my GLD long when it spiked up to the $106 area for a nice profit, since I measured its target at 106.75 and didn't really see the need to wait for the last penny.