Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Corrections Close to Completion (by cantabnomad)

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To continue with the theme of foreign (to US residents) markets, here is my take on the Italian MIB index. Italy is eurozone's third largest economy.

BOTTOM LINE: Corrections higher in risk and related assets are likely very close to completion. While major US indices advanced about 1.5% higher than expected, EU indices, notably EURO area indices are moving along the expected lines. Internal structures of these indices suggest that the next leg of the decline is imminent.

Below is an hourly chart of the Italian MIB index (Italy is the world's seventh largest economy – just below the UK). The MIB has been much weaker than most EURO area indices, and currently retraced just about 50% of its 11.3% decline. The internal structure of the decline and subsequent rally appears to conform very well to wave guidelines, with the correction finishing (?) with a clear impulse higher (15 minute chart below the hourly chart).

This is a very short-term, 15 minute chart of the Italian MIB.

Mib 15m 

I hope you find this useful, and have a good day. – – - Aidyn Kussainov

Victory and Defeat

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After I did my woeful post earlier this morning, tagging it with a "Defeat" category, I decided to do a little experiment.

I used the category cloud to see all the posts I had done with a Victory, then I looked at all the ones that were marked as Defeat. I've put a chart of the S&P below with the times that I did a "defeat" post marked in yellow and the time I did a "Victory" post marked in green.


Notice a trend here? When I'm feeling on top of the world, the trend changes against me; and when I'm feeling dejected, I should short like mad.

I guess the Emotional Awareness note on my rules page is quite true.

The Distressing Tally

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What Isn't Working in 2009

  • Elliott wave
  • Fractal analysis
  • Historical analogs
  • Classic pattern application
  • Volume analysis
  • Fundamental analysis
  • Sentiment as contrarian indicator
  • Seasonality
  • Intermarket analysis
  • Sector rotation

What Is Working in 2009

  • Buying stuff cuz Obama and Cramer told me to.

We have truly come full circle. 2009 is 1999, and the Greater Fool Theory reigns. This is getting really, really demoralizing.