Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Ratio Charts

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We just released a very spiffy new feature in ProphetCharts. I'm actually embarrassed at the name I gave it – Ratio Charts – because that's a real misnomer. It's really more like "Arithmetic Charts", because you can use all the basic math operators and parentheses to construct synthetic charts.

Below, for instance, is a (silly) chart of the prices of the four horsemen added together:

1120-ratiohorsemen 

Below is a bit more of a useful chart – – one in which I've multiplied SLV by six and divided it by GLD to get a pretty cool ratio of the silver and gold ETFs (I've "normalized" SLV by multiplying it by six).

1120-ratiosilver

As you can imagine, there are all kinds of exciting possibilities with this feature. Folks using the Investools Investor Toolbox should see this feature already. Those on thinkorswim will see this incorporated Real Soon Now, so hang in there.

The ADCT Object Lesson

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Many of the short positions I am in have very large topping patterns. One of them I've been watching is ADC Telecommunications (symbol ADCT). I did not get into a short position with it, however.

My rationale was that the stock had already fallen quite a lot already from its recovery point, and the risk was too high.

But that's silly………if we're trying to look for stocks that are going to be weak in the future, doesn't it make the most sense to look for stocks that have been weak in the present?

So, as this stock is down something like 11% as I am typing this, it shows the value of this thought. Just as one should not underestimate just how high a stock can go (or how strong it is – – – witness the likes of AMZN or PCLN), one likewise should not underestimate how poorly a stock can perform or how weak it can be. I am not entering a position at this point, but I would not be surprised at all to see this stock much lower by early next year.

0120-adct

Nathaniel Sucker-Punches Silver…… (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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…and then runs away as fast as he can!

Sometimes I think that I'm a glutton for punishment. I've been punched in the balls, subject to countless atomic-wedgies and have been shoved in so many lockers throughout my childhood; maybe I'm just numb to the pain. That's probably why I shorted silver again around noon EST on Wednesday after closing my mauled position on Tuesday.

I brought my Sais with me and my friend Elliott had my back, so it's not like I'm totally gambling here. For those that use EW, you might be able to see a nice 5 waves up from 11/13/09 around 10:00 to 11/18/09 around 10:00 on the hourly chart. We hit the top of my bullish Sai, time for the sucker punch with a tight stop. Then we have a nice little 5 waves down which could be an A, then nice spike up could be a B, I could see more downside today which may be a C towards the median line (or maybe something more sinister, best to keep some charts private). I don't really trust my larger EW count (he's a good friend, but has really let me down the past several months…) Who knows with this crazy metal/market that Is why I exited the position Thursday around 11:30. I also do not know if my bearish death Sai is strong enough to kill Silver, could see another gap up over it.

SLV-11-20-09

I took vengeance on it like I do most of the bullies in my life, a swift punch to the back of the head while they are not looking or hard kick to the groin, then run away like a frightened school-girl. I dumped this position fast before any sort of retaliation or skin break out could occur.

Honestly, I really want to stop playing with silver and SLV. This time around I used ZSL (talk about another widow maker). My Sensei Chen NEVER fools around with such low volume ETFs or stocks, and warns me about messing with them, "Too easily manipulated, Nathanielson."

Nathaniel-VS-Silver

Busy Busy Bear

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I've been up since 3:30 going through my charts, looking for new opportunities – – and they are legion.

I am in 188 short positions now, and I've got 68 others I am looking to add.

I was struck, while looking through charts, at the bizarre goings-on with the triple-bearish ETFs, like TYH and ERX. The market isn't really doing anything dramatic, but these guys are down about 16%, whereas their bearish counterparts are up a fraction of that amount. What gives? I'm sure Slopers would be curious.

Anyway, in spite of my early start, I don't have a post yet. But all is well.

The Fed Audit Inches Forward

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I was quite heartened to see this story about how Ron Paul, after 26 years of trying, received approval from a congressional panel on his bill to require auditing of the all-powerful Fed. Maybe this bill has a chance at success, in spite of Geithner, Bernanke, and their handlers at GS fighting it.

The secretive cabal must be slightly freaking out that their dictatorship is being threatened. So maybe this is the first ray of sunshine into the viper's nest. One can dream of bigger ambitions down the road, like trying Paulson and Blankfein for treason against the United States. Think it's crazy? We shall see.

0120-ronpaul