Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

XLF – They Wouldn’t… They Shouldn’t… They Might

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Dey's of course da PPT, da PTB, da masta plannas and da boyz. Full
Hubris '10, also known as Full Tout '10, the extension to Hope '09 and
Full Suck-in '09 proceeds on in its robotic way. Market watchers who
know what they are looking at shake their heads and think 'here we go
again'.

Last time we went this route it was 2002-2003 with '03
being the year I clearly remember thinking 'don't fight 'em, Gary…
roll with it'. In the wake of that came a website called 'but it is
what it is
' (hey, it was not yet a cliche' back then) that resolved to
keep firmly in place the reasons that people like Comptroller General
David Walker were on high alert for systemic risk. But also, the name
referred in part to my personal inclination not to blame nefarious
forces for anything negative that befalls my investment stance.

It
is what it is and these pigs are flying a poorly sponsored stock market
higher, toward some targets that could prove terminal. But we are all
getting a refresher course in just how long and dragged out this
process can be. The economy has improved and the system is whirring
along here in Full Assumption '10. This speaks to the idea that nothing
was learned or incorporated from the crash. At least nothing in the way
of remedying our misguided belief in a system that is unraveling
slowly, over the course of years.

I used the 2003-2007 time
period to make some good money, yeh. But more importantly, I used it as
a time to remain conscious of the cracking foundation and to get my
house in order. Rational people will use the current recovery, stitched
together with sublime levels of new morally hazardous policy, to their
advantage – for however long it lasts – not to make money and be a
player, but to continue deleveraging and insulating themselves from
what is coming… sooner or later.

Oh,
this started as a post about the financials etf, XLF. Well, there's the
trend line, there's the 38% fib retrace and if the pig climbs yet
higher there goes my short on the financials. So be it… is what it
is. I am still making money and will continue to do so if the construct
floats higher, because I know where the real gains will be made going
forward. Just like in 2002 – 2007. 

Xlf 

I know SOH is a bear refuge, and the 'recovery' has by no means proven sustainable and the stock market rally could end at any time up here in ultra high risk territory.  But if they are able to spin another inflationary policy fueled mini bull out of this, net short will not be the way to go for a while yet.

Nathaniel Welcomes 2010 (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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I spent Christmas eve with mom and grandma, sipping mimosas and having a great time. I must have had one too many, 'cause I woke up Christmas day at a truck stop on the Ohio turnpike, about 300 miles from where I live. I was able to hitchhike home right before New-Years, only to find my mom's boyfriend moved into my room. I then spent the weekend setting up my trading station in grandma's room. I wasn't able to pay much attention to the market the last week & 1/2 of 2009, but Monday really got me excited.

Call me stupid, but I started shorting the crap out of the RUT on Monday. Here are a couple of charts of IWM and the RUT. Woohoo, we are making new highs Monday and Tuesday!!!! It really doesn't look that bullish to me though, I'm very comfortable shorting here with loose stops. (Disclaimer, I've been on the wrong side of most trades since July).

RUT

Distribution
  

I know there is a lot of Elliott Wave bashing going on lately, so I haven't posted many EW counts. I usually don't count 1min charts either, but today's count gave me a huge boner right in front of grandma, very embarrassing. If we have a big drop wed or thursday, I'll print this chart out and hang it next to grandma's home-sweet-home cross stitch.

IWM1min
 

One last thing about stops… They are certainly hunting for them, all obvious stops (for bulls and bears) are being hit. I hate saying I have "mental stops" cause that sort of makes me move them up or down, and usually I would have been better off if I just set them and let them be taken out. Right now I'm looking at obvious stops and placing my real stops at an odd % below or above them. A place that may make the "obvious" stop price a place that would become support or resistance in opposite direction. Does that make sense? Maybe I've had one too many mimosas again tonight…